مدل‌سازی سیستم منابع آب تالاب هورالعظیم/هورالهویزه با رویکرد پویایی سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران.

2 استاد/گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران.

3 دانشیار/ گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی پردیس ابوریحان دانشگاه تهران.

چکیده

در دهه‌های اخیر، سطح آب تالاب هورالعظیم/هورالهویزه (در مرز ایران و عراق) به عنوان یکی از منابع آب مشترک، به شدت کاهش یافته است. در حوضه‌های مشترک، در نظر گرفتن تعاملات بین سیستم‌های منابع آب در کشورهای حوضه آبریز، با استفاده از رویکرد سیستم پویا امکان‌پذیر است. مدل ارائه شده، تعاملات بین سیستم‌های منابع آب ایران، عراق و ترکیه را بدون در نظر گرفتن سیستم‌های اجتماعی- اقتصادی این کشورها، در حوضه مشترک تالاب هورالعظیم/هورالهویزه برای دوره 2016- 2004 شبیه‌سازی نموده است که می‌تواند برای تحلیل سناریوهای مختلف در حوضه استفاده شود. به علاوه، این مطالعه سیستمی پویا را برای چندین تصمیم‌گیر با منافع مختلف، براساس یکپارچگی حوضه، توسعه داده است. صحت‌سنجی این مدل نشان داد مدل توسعه یافته، به منظور بازسازی رفتار پارامترهای مختلف درون سیستم، به خوبی واسنجی شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که آب ورودی دجله به عراق از ترکیه، در دوره شبیه‌‌سازی، کاهش قابل ملاحظه‌ای داشته است. متعاقبا، ورودی به تالاب هورالعظیم/هورالهویزه، به طور متوسط در این بازه زمانی، 61 درصد کم‌تر از ظرفیت این تالاب بوده است. همچنین نتایج مدل برای دو سناریوی تکمیل پروژه GAP و کاهش 10 درصدی سطح زیر کشت، در هر سه کشور، نشان می‌دهد که آب ورودی به تالاب به ترتیب 400 میلیون مترمکعب کاهش و 1900 میلیون مترمکعب نسبت به 2020 افزایش می‌یابد. بطور کلی، از مدل ارائه شده می‌توان به عنوان ابزار پشتیبانی برای ارزیابی تصمیم‎‌های سیاست‌گذاران در منطقه استفاده نمود. در نتیجه، برای بهبود شرایط زیست‌محیطی، گزینه‌های مدیریتی باید با توجه به یکپارچگی حوضه‌های مشترک تعریف شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling of the Water Resources system of Hoor-Al-Azim/Hawizeh Wetland using System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nargeskhatoon Dowlatabadi 1
  • Mohammad Ebrahim Banihabib 2
  • Abbas Roozbahani 3
1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Irrigation and Drainage, College of Aburaihan , University of Tehran.
2 Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage, College of Aburaihan, University of Tehran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage, College of Aburaihan , University of Tehran.
چکیده [English]

In recent decades, water level of the Hoor-Al-Azim/Hawizeh wetland (located on border of Iran- Iraq) as Shared resources has reduced sharply. In shared watersheds, interactions between riparian countries of a water resource system can be considered by a system dynamic model. The proposed model simulated the interactions among water resource systems of Iran, Iraq and Turkey without interactions of Socio-economic subsystem over the period of 2004–2016, which can be used to analyze various scenarios in the shared basin of Hoor-Al-Azim/Hawizeh. In addition, this study has developed a system dynamics model for several decision makers with different interests, based on integrated watershed. The model was validated for extreme conditions and the results showed well-calibration of the developed model to reconstruct the behavior of different parameters within the system. The results also showed that Tigris inflow to Iraq from Turkey has been decreased significantly during the simulation period. Subsequently, the inflow to the Hoor-Al-Azim/ Hawizeh wetland during the simulation period had been 61% less than the environmental flow averagely. Moreover, the model results for two scenarios of GAP project completion and 10% reduction in cultivated area of the three countries showed that wetland inflow decreases to 400 MCM and increases to 1900 MCM, respectively. In general, the proposed model can be used as support tool to evaluate decisions of policy-makers in the region. Thereupon, results of model for different scenarios indicate that improvement of environmental conditions would be approached by management alternatives based on integration of basin

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dynamic system
  • Modeling of Shared water resources
  • Hoor Al-Azim Wetland
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