ارزیابی جریان زیست محیطی در رودخانه کر: رویکردی جامع با استفاده از روش مدل‌سازی پویاشناسی سیستم ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد / سازه های آبی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار / گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس ،تهران، ایران

3 استاد / گروه سازه‌های آبی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در دهه‌های اخیر، کمبود بی‌سابقه منابع آب، آلودگی و تخریب اکوسیستم‌ها در بسیاری از نقاط جهان محققان و سیاست‌گذاران را وادار به وقف تلاش بیشتر در راستای حفظ و احیای سلامت سامانه‌های آبی کرده تا به توازن میان بشر و طبیعت دست یابند. تلاش بشر برای بهره‌برداری از جریان‌های طبیعی پیامدهایی را برای عملکردها و تنوع زیستی سامانه‌های رودخانه‌ها به دنبال داشته است. تالاب بختگان و رودخانه کر در سال‌های اخیر به دلیل عدم تأمین نیاز آبی زیست‌محیطی موردنیاز، با مشکل مواجه بوده‌اند. هدف این تحقیق، ارائه یک روش‌شناسی جامع بالا به پایین برای تخمین نیاز جریان زیست محیطی رودخانه کر می باشد که با بهره‌گیری از رویکرد سیستمیک و پویاشناسی سامانه ها، علاوه بر تعیین نیاز زیست محیطی آبزیان در این رودخانه، تاثیرات تغییرات اجتماعی-اقتصادی و گزینه‌های سیاستی ممکن بر رژیم جریان رودخانه، تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی مختلف، مورد بررسی قرار می گیرند. مشاهده شد که به منظور دستیابی به آب مورد نیاز سیستم طبیعی و هم‌‌چنین مصرف پایدار منابع آب تجدید پذیر، از منابع در دسترس برای توسعه اقتصادی کاسته خواهد شد که این امر به‌ ویژه بر سطح زیرکشت و توسعه بخش کشاورزی اثر خواهد داشت. ادامه روند کنونی و حفظ الگوی نامناسب مصرف منجر به زوال منابع آب و تخریب کامل اکوسیستم‌ها می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing Environmental Flow Regime in Kor River: A Holistic Approach Using System Dynamics Modeling

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Davari 1
  • Ali Bagheri 2
  • Jamal Mohammad Vali SamaniJamal 3
1 MSc Graduate in Hydraulic Structures, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
2 Assoc. Prof., Tarbiat Modares University, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, Tarbiat Modares University, Department of Hydraulic Structures, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In recent decades, the unprecedented lack of water resources, contamination and ecosystem degradation in many parts of the world have forced researchers and policy makers to devote more efforts to maintain and restore the health of water associated systems to achieve a balance between human and nature. Human efforts to maintain full natural flows have had implications on the functions and biodiversity of river systems. Lake Bakhtegan and Kor River have been degrading in recent years due to the lack of environmental protection efforts. The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive top-down methodology for assessing the environmental flow of Kor River. Adopting the methodology based on the system dynamics approach, the paper will estimate the environmental flow requirement of the river under different scenarios and explores its consequences on the socio-economic part of the basin. It was observed that by supplying the water needed by the natural system, the resources available for economic development would decrease, impacting particularly the level of agricultural development. The current trends which are dominating the basin will result in deterioration of water resources and complete destruction of ecosystems.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • environmental flow requirement
  • system dynamics
  • Kor River
  • holistic approach
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