شبیه‌سازی-بهینه‌سازی چندهدفه برای مدیریت کمی-کیفی مخازن سدها با رویکرد برداشت انتخابی و مدل ترکیبی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه یاسوج

2 دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

در این تحقیق، یک مدل چندهدفه شبیه‌سازی-بهینه‌سازی با رویکرد برداشت انتخابی از مخزن سد، با درنظر گرفتن سناریوهای مختلف آب رهاسازی شده از 4 دریچه مخزن و تکنیک مدل ترکیبی (Model Fusion) تدوین گردیده است. برای تخمین کیفیت آب رهاسازی شده ، مدل NSGA-II، مدل CE-QUAL-W2 و مدل ترکیبی، توسعه داده شده است. به منظور تولید رهاسازی‌های ممکن از دریچه‌های سد و اجرای مکرر مدل شبیه‌سازی، دو کد در MATLAB® به صورت جداگانه تدوین شده است. تابع هدف‌های مهم در این تحقیق، حداقل کردن اختلاف بین آب رهاسازی شده از مخزن و تقاضاهای گروداران مختلف و حداکثر کردن شاخص کیفیت آب ایران (IRWQISC) و حجم مخزن سد می‌باشند. برمبنای این متدولوژی، پس از شبیه‌-سازی با مدل CE-QUAL-W2 و کالیبراسیون آن، داده‌های ورودی و خروجی مدل شبیه‌سازی به صورت مجموعه داده‌های ورودی-خروجی ذخیره شده است و سه مدل MLP، GRNN و RBF که به عنوان مدل‌های هوش مصنوعی منفرد مورد استفاده قرار گرفته‌اند، آموزش و صحت‌سنجی می-گردند. برای ترکیب مدل‌های مذکور نیز از روش وزن‌دهی رتبه‌بندی شده استفاده شده است که در آن، برای تعیین وزن مدل‌ها از روش Orness استفاده گردیده است. پس از تدوین مدل ترکیبی و اتصال آن به مدل NSGA-II، توابع اهداف گروداران‌ مختلف تعیین می‌شوند. برای به دست آوردن نقطه مناسب بر روی منحنی تعامل از تئوری نش و روش‌های مختلف قوانین گزینش اجتماعی استفاده شده است. در انتها، با استفاده از مدل چانه‌زنی بازگشتی بهترین راه‌حل برداشت انتخابی از مخزن سد انتخاب گردیده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Multi-objective simulation-optimization for reservoir quality-quantity management with selective withdrawal and model Fusion

نویسندگان [English]

  • Massomeh Haghighat 1
  • Mohammad Reza Nikoo 2
  • Mohammad Parvinnia 1
  • Narges Taravat Roy 1
1 Yasouj University
2 Shiraz University
چکیده [English]

In this paper, a multi-objective simulation-optimization model for reservoir selective withdrawal considering different releases scenario and model Fusion method is developed, NSGA-II model, CE-QUAL-W2 model and validated model Fusion method are developed to determine the quality of reservoir releases from outlets. To generate possible reservoir releases as well as automatic running of calibrated CE-QUAL-W2 model for different possible scenarios, two codes are developed in MATLAB® software, separately. The main objectives function of this study are minimizing difference between reservoir water releases and different demands of stakeholders, maximizing Iran Water Quality Index of outlet water and the reservoir storage. Based on this methodology, the input-output data sets of simulation model are saved and utilized for training and validating the MLP, GRNN and RBF Meta models. The Ordered Weighted Average is used for fused the meta-models and for determining the model weighted is used Orness method. Then, the validated Meta model is linked to NSGA-II model to determine the objectives. For obtaining an appropriate solution considering different involved stakeholders on the pareto front, Nash theory and different social choice rules method are used. At the end, the fallback bargaining theory is used to choose the best reservoir selective withdrawal solution.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Quantity-Quality Reservoir Operation
  • Selective Withdrawal
  • Model Fusion
  • Social Choice Rules Method
  • Fallback Bargaining Theory

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