تخمین تلفات جانی سیلاب‌های آنی در مناطق مسکونی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 واحد علوم و تحقیقات تهران، دانشگاه آزاد

2 عضو هیئت علمی گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه بین الملی امام خمینی (ره) قزوین

چکیده

در میان انواع بلایای طبیعی در جهان، سیل بعنوان ویرانگرترین عامل شناخته می‌شود و در میان انواع آنها، سیلابهای آنی در حوضه های آبریز مشرف بر مناطق شهری خطرناکترین نوع سیلاب محسوب می شوند. تخمین پتانسیل تلفات انسانی ناشی از سیلاب‌های حوضه‌های آبریز شهری، بمنظور اجرای برنامه‌های مدیریتی در راستای کاهش میزان تلفات، دارای اهمیت فراوانی می‌باشد. در مقایسه با اهمیت این موضوع آنچه که تا کنون ارائه شده است روابطی عمومی می باشد که براساس نتایج پژوهش حاضراز دقتی مناسببرای تخمین تلفات سیلاب ناگهانی حوضه مطالعاتی یعنی حوضه آبریزکن تهران برخوردار نمی‌باشند. در این مطالعه با برآورد میزان سیلاب به ازای دوره بازگشتهای مختلف، پارامترهای هیدرولیکی مؤثر از قبیل سرعت و عمق سیلاب محاسبه شده و سپس رابطه‌ای جامع برای تعیین تلفات ناشی از وقوع سیلاب‌های آنی در مناطق مسکونی توسعه داده شد. مقایسه نتایج حاصل از رابطه توسعه یافته با نتایج روابط ارائه شده توسط سایر محققین، دقت بیشتر و خطای برآورد کمتر تلفات تخمین زده‌ شده توسط رابطه منطقه‌ای بدست آمده در این تحقیق را نشان داد. در نهایت می‌توان بیان کرد که علیرغم وجود روابط عمومی جهت تخمین میزان تلفات انسانی، توسعه یک رابطه منطقه‌ای از طریق روش ارائه شده در این مقاله برای حوضه‌های با احتمال وقوع تلفات زیاد در زمان سیلاب‌های ناگهانی، بسیار عملی‌تر و دقیق‌تر می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimating Number of Fatalities Due to Flash Floods in Residential Areas

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehdi Karbasi 1
  • Alireza Shokoohi 2
  • Bahram Saghafian 1
1 Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch
چکیده [English]

Among different types of natural disasters in the world, floods, especially flash floods, are known as the most devastating hazard which cause serious damages and human deaths in residential areas. Importance of estimating the maximum possible number of fatalities due to flash floods in urban watersehds, in order to consider appropriate management plans to reduce the number of fatalities, is undeniable. Implementing some global equations in Kan watershed, located in the north of Tehran, led to this conclusion that their accuracy for estimating the number of human fatalities is not enough and developing a regional relationship is essential. In this study, using hydraulic parameters such as depth and velocity, a regional and comprehensive equation was developed to estimate loss of life due to flash flood in residential areas. Comparing the outcomes of the developed regional equation with the previously presented global equations showed that the proposed equation provides more accurate estimation of the number of fatalities in the study area. Finally, it can be concluded that in spite of existence of general relationships to estimate flash floods fatalities, developing a regional equation will be more accurate and practical for the watersheds with high flood fatality potential.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Flash flood
  • Human fatality
  • Regional model
  • Urban watersheds
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