کاربرد مشاهدات ماهواره‌ی GRACE در پایش خشکسالی (مطالعه‌ی موردی: حوضه‌ی آبریز مرکزی کشور)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشگاه تهران

2 گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

پایش خشکسالی یکی از ارکان اصلی مدیریت خشکسالی است. از این‌رو محقیقان همواره به دنبال یافتن راهی برای پایش هرچه دقیق‌تر این پدیده هستند. هدف اصلی مقاله حاضر، بررسی کارایی مشاهدات ماهواره‌ی بازیابی گرانش و آزمایش اقلیمی (GRACE) در پایش خشکسالی در حوضه‌ی مرکزی ایران بین سال‌های 2016-2002 است. با پرتاب این ماهواره امکان پایش بی‎هنجاری‌های ذخیره‌ی کل آب (TWSA) برای کل جهان با دقت بالا فراهم شد. با توجه به معنی‌دار بودن اثر فعالیت‌های انسانی بر TWSA در حوضه‌ی مذکور، شاخص‌های متداول خشکسالی GRACE مبناء مانند شاخص شدت خشکسالی(DSI)، در حوضه‌ی مرکزی کارایی مناسبی ندارند. از این‌رو در این مقاله شاخص شدت خشکسالی اصلاح شده‌ (MDSI) با حذف روند از سری زمانی TWSA معرفی شد. همچنین، شاخص‌های بارش استاندارد شده (SPI) و بارش- تبخیر و تعرق استاندارد شده (SPEI) نیز به عنوان مبنایی برای ارزیابی کارایی شاخص‌های DSI و MDSI بکار گرفته شدند. بر اساس نتایج، ضریب همبستگی بین DSI و شاخص‌های SPI12 و SPEI12 به ترتیب برابر 0/42 و 0/26 به‌دست آمده است؛ در حالی که این مقادیر برای MDSI به ترتیب برابر 0/69 و 0/56 می‌باشند. نتایج مربوط به MDSI نشان داد که در دوره‌ی مورد مطالعه، شدیدترین و طولانی‌ترین خشکسالی در سال‌های 2009-2008 رخ داده است. در این دوره حوضه با کمبود 238 کیلومتر مکعبی آب روبرو بوده است. بر اساس نرخ حداکثر و متوسط تغییرات کمبودها در حوضه، برای جبران این کمبود حداقل 21 ماه و به طور متوسط 91 ماه زمان لازم است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of GRACE Satellite Observations in Drought Monitoring (Case Study: Markazi Basin, IRAN)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed-Mohammad Hosseini-Moghari 1
  • Shahab Araghinejad 2
  • Kumars Ebrahimi 2
1 PhD student, Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, University of Tehran
2 Irrigation and Reclamation Engineering Department, University of Tehran, Karaj, IRAN.
چکیده [English]

Drought monitoring is one of the main pillars of drought management. Therefore, investigators are always looking for a way to improve the drought monitoring accuracy. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the efficiency of GRACE satellite observations in drought monitoring in the Markazi basin of Iran between 2002 and 2016. With the launch of this satellite, it has been possible to monitor total water storage anomalies (TWSA) for the entire world with high precision. Due to the significance of human activities impact on Total Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA), obtained from GRACE in the above mentioned basin, the common GRACE-based drought indices, such as Drought Severity Index (DSI), has not been efficient in this basin. Therefore, in this paper the newly Modified Drought Severity Index (MDSI) is introduced based on de-trended TWSA time series. Also, both Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used, as the criteria to assess the performance of DSI and MDSI. The results showed that the correlation coefficient between DSI and SPI12/SPEI12 were equal to 0.42/0.26, while these values for MDSI were equal to 0.69 and 0.56, respectively. Calculated MDSI time series revealed that during the studied period, the most severe and longest drought occurred in the years 2008-09. During this period the basin faced with a deficit of 238 km3. On the basis of maximum and average rate of deficit changes in the basin, at least 21 and on average 91 months is needed for recovery of this deficit.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Modified Drought Severity Index
  • Standardized precipitation index
  • Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
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