ارزیابی راهکارهای سازگاری با تغییراقلیم بر اساس نشانگرهای اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی امنیت آبی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری/ گروه مهندسی منابع آب، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار/ گروه مهندسی منابع آب، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

3 دانشیار / گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

چکیده

پدیده تغییر ‌اقلیم با تغییر در میزان بارش و دمای هوا بر سیستم هیدرولوژی یک حوضه و به دلیل تعامل میان سیستم‌ها، بر زیرسیستم‌های کشاورزی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی اثرگذار بوده که شدت این اثرات نامساعد بسته به آسیب‌پذیری سیستم متفاوت می‌باشد. در این راستا بکارگیری نشانگرهای امنیت آبی در ارزیابی راهکارهای سازگاری موثر بر آسیب‌پذیری، کمک شایانی می‌نماید. در این پژوهش حوزه آبریز طشک بختگان که دارای تعامل بالایی بین سیستم‌های مختلف است، بعنوان منطقه مطالعاتی انتخاب گردید. در این راستا، در ابتدا به‌منظور شبیه‌سازی تغییرات اقلیم منطقه، متغیرهای بارش و دما از نتایج سه مدل گردش عمومی جو اقیانوس تحت سناریوی انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای RCP2.6 در دوره 2020-2049 استخراج شده و جهت مدیریت عدم قطعیت ناشی از روش‌های ریزمقیاس نمائی، از سه روش‌ ریزمقیاس‌نمایی چندایستگاهی استفاده گردید. در ادامه مدل شبیه‌ساز پویای یکپارچه‌ منطقه در مقیاس حوزه آبریز تهیه شده و اثرات سناریوی تغییراقلیم و راهکارهای سازگاری با آن در حوضه برای دوره آتی شبیه‌سازی گردید. در نهایت با استفاده از نتایج مدل شبیه‌ساز، مقدار نشانگرهای امنیت آبی در ابعاد اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی در دوره پایه و در دوره آتی تحت اثر تغییراقلیم تعیین شده و میزان اثرگذاری راهکارهای سازگاری در کاهش آسیب‌پذیری بر اساس تغییردر این نشانگرها مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که جهت کاهش آسیب‌پذیری سیستم در دوره آتی می‌بایست ضمن افزایش بهره‌وری اقتصادی آب در بخش کشاورزی توسط افزایش راندمان آبیاری، فعالیت کشاورزی نیز کاهش یافته و به منظور جبران خسارت اقتصادی و اجتماعی، فعالیت در بخش صنعت افزایش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change based on Social, Economic and Environmental Resilience Indicators

نویسندگان [English]

  • S. Ansari Mahabadi 1
  • A.R Massah Bavan 2
  • A. Bagheri 3
1 PhD candidate, Department of Water Resources Engineering, College of Abouraihan, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associated Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, College of Abouraihan, University of Tehran, Tehran
3 Associate Professor at Water Resourses Engineering Department, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In this study, Tashk-Bakhtegan, with high interaction among of its systems, was studied. Firstly, To simulate effects of climate change, precipitation and temperature variable were be extracted from the Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR, GFDL-ESM2G) by the new scenario of greenhouse gases (RCP2.6). To minimize uncertainty because of the downscaling method, three methods of multisite downscaling (XDS, Sequential k-nearest neighbor imputation method (SKNN) and Statistical Downscaling Model–Decision Centric (SDSM–DC)) were used. Then, the integrated dynamic model for the catchment scale was prepared. The effects of the climate change scenario and its adaptation strategies were simulated in the basin in the future period. Finally, measures of water security indicators were identified based on social, economic and environmental dimensions during the base and future period. Moreover, the influences of appropriate strategies on the reduction of vulnerability have evaluated the basis of indicators changing. The results show that economic water productivity in agricultural sector should be increased by increasing irrigation efficiency and agricultural activity should be reduced concerning decrease the vulnerability of system in the future period, and it is necessary to increase industry activity to economic and social indemnity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Water security
  • Multisite downscaling
  • Adaptation Strategies
  • Dynamic Integrated Model

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