ارزیابی ظرفیت مدیریت فعلی آب کشاورزی در حوضه زرینه‌رود برای سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم براساس رویکرد تصمیم‌گیری استوار

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد / گروه مهندسی منابع آب دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 استاد/ گروه مهندسی منابع آب دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 دانشجوی دکتری/ دانشگاه موناش استرالیا

چکیده

در مدیریت سامانههای منابع آب، عدم قطعیتهای ذاتی گوناگونی وجود دارد که همزمان با طولانیتر شدن افق طرح، تشدید میشود. در میان آنها، عدم قطعیتهایی که به تغییر اقلیم و تبعات آنها مربوط هستند، چالشهای زیادی را بوجود میآورد که از آنها تحت عنوان عدم قطعیت عمیق نیز یاد میگردد. بدین منظور، این مقاله از روش تصمیمگیری پایدار که به مدل SWAT برای شبیهسازیهای آب و خاک اتصال یافته استفاده میکند. منطقه مطالعاتی تحقیق، حوضه زرینه رود میباشد که اراضی کشاورزی زیادی را در خود جای داده است و تامین کنننده اصلی آب دریاچه ارومیه نیز میباشد. در این مرحله، مقاله به ارزیابی مدیریت فعلی حوضه به عنوان راهکار سازگاری می پردازد که برای آن تعدادی معیار شامل: ورودیهای به دریاچه، تغییر در ذخائر آب زیرزمینی، تبخیر و تعرق و عملکرد محصول تعریف شده است. نتایج نشان داد که مدیریت فعلی برای شرایط تغییر اقلیم استوار نمیباشد و در بسیاری از موارد شکست خواهد خورد. این شکستها همزمان با کاهش بارندگی و افزایش دما بیش از 75/0 درجه سانتیگراد بیشتر خودنمایی میکنند. این مهم تاکیدی است بر تدوین راهبردهای جدید که بخوبی با چارچوب مدل توسعه یافته قابل انجام و ارزیابی میباشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of the capacity of current agricultural water management of Zayaneh Rud Basin for adaptation to climate change using Robust Decision Making technique

نویسندگان [English]

  • F. babania 1
  • S. Morid 2
  • A. SHokri 3
1 M.Sc. Student, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University
2 Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University,
3 Ph.D. Student of Monash University,
چکیده [English]

In the management of water resources systems, there are various inherent uncertainties which are exacerbated as planning horizon gets longer. Among them, the uncertainties related to climate change and their consequences cause serious challenges, which are also attributed as deep uncertainties, too. Therefore, it is crucial to consider them in developing any plan for adaptation strategies. This issue constructs the main objective of current research work, which applies the concept of “robustness” to evaluate adaptation strategies and respected decisions. For this purpose, the paper uses Robust Decision Making (RDM) technique, which is linked to Soil and Water assessment Tool (SWAT) model for the required water and agricultural simulations. The case study of this research work is Zarrineh Rud River basin with high cultivated lands. It is also the main feeding river of northwest Iran’s Lake Urmia. At this stage, the paper focused on evaluation of the current management of the basin to adapt climate change. For this, different indicators including: inflows to the lake, change in groundwater storage, evapo-transpiration and crop yield were applied. The results showed that the current management is not robust and fails in most of the projected climate scenarios. These fails are worsened as rainfall decreases and temperature increases more than 0.75 Celsius. This suggests necessity of evolving strategies, which can be properly evaluated through the developed modeling framework.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Robust Decision Making
  • Deep Uncertainty
  • SWAT model
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