شبیه‌سازی و ارزیابی رفتار و تعاملات ذینفعان و شرکت آب منطقه‌ای آب تحت چارچوب مدل‌سازی عامل بنیان در محدوده لنجانات حوضه زاینده‌رود

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعنی اصفهان، اصفهان

2 صنعتی اصفهان

چکیده

هدف اصلی تحقیق، شناسایی و ارزیابی پارامترهای موثر بر رفتار عامل‌ها (ذیمدخلان و ذینفعان) در نظارت منابع آب و شبیه‌سازی آنها تحت قوانین و سیاست‌های آب می‌باشد. جهت دنبال کردن این هدف، ابتدا چارچوب قواعد رفتاری عاملها در محدوده لنجانات تشکیل و سپس با مدل عامل بنیان رفتارها شبیه‌سازی شد. مدل‌های عامل بنیان ابزاری هستند که در مدل‌سازی گروه‌های مختلف، تعریف ویژگی‌های رفتاری آنها و نمایش ارتباط‌ها و اثرات تعامل با دیگر گروه‌ها استفاده می‌شوند. در این مطالعه از نرم‌افزار AnyLogic استفاده شده است. جهت ارزیابی اثر پارامترهایی مثل "تشکیل جلسات با دیگر ارگان‌ها توسط شرکت آب منطقه‌ای" در کنترل تخلفات دو سناریوی کارآمد و ناکارآمد تعریف گردید. نتایج نشان داد که تغییر رفتار و نحوه تعامل شرکت آب منطقه‌ای با دیگر ارگان‌ها تاثیر زیادی بر کنترل تخلفات دارد. به عنوان مثال اضافه کردن پارامتر "تشکیل جلسات با دادستان و دیگر ارگان‌ها" در سناریو اول (سیستم ناکارآمد) کنترل تخلفها را تا 36% افزایش می‌دهد. همچنین حذف آن پارامتر از سناریو دوم (سیستم کارآمد) تا 72% کاهش می‌دهد. همچنین نتایج سناریوها نشان داد که تعامل مناسب توسط شرکت آب منطقه‌ای، کنترل برداشت‌های غیر مجاز را می‌تواند از 8/12 به 3/70 میلیون متر مکعب تغییر تغییر دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating and Simulation of the Behavior and Interactions of Stakeholders and Regional Water Company Under Agent-Based Model Framework, In Lenjanat Sub-Basin of Zayandehrood River Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sayed Ali ohab-Yazdi 1
  • Azadeh Ahmadi 2
1 Dept. of Civil Engineering, Isfahan Univ. of Technology, Isfahan
2 Dept. of Civil Engineering, Isfahan Univ. of Technology, Isfahan
چکیده [English]

The main goal of this paper is the exploration of the effective parameters on agents’ behavior (decision makers, stakeholders), water supervision, and the simulation of them under rules and policies of water. To follow this goal, the framework of agents’ behavioral rules on Lenjanat sub-basin was formed and then addressed to simulation of them using agent-based model. Agent-based model is an instrument that can be used for modeling of different agents, defining behavioral characteristics, showing links and interactions between one agent with the others. In this paper AnyLogic software has been applied. For evaluating the effects of parameters like “Meeting with other organs by regional water company” two scenarios (efficient and inefficient) were developed. The results showed that changing the behavior and the interaction of regional water company with other organs are extremely effective. For example, Existence of “Meeting with other organs by regional water company” parameter increases violations’ control 36% in the first scenario (inefficient) and the absence of it decreases violations’ control 72% in the second scenario (efficient). Also, the results of scenarios showed that linking and suitable interaction by the regional water company can change the control of illegal withdrawals from 12.8 to 70.3 million cubic meters.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agent-based model
  • AnyLogic
  • Interaction
  • Rule behavior
  • Simulation
Abed-Elmdoust, A Kerachian R (2012) Water resources allocation using a cooperative game with fuzzy payoffs and fuzzy coalitions. Water Resources Management 26 (13):3961-3976

ACM (Approved by Council of Ministers) (1984) Implementing regulations chapter II-The rule of water equitable distribution. (In Persian)

ACM (Approved by Council of Ministers) (2011) Implementing regulations of rules for determining the wells without operation license (In Persian)

Akhbari M, Grigg NS (2013) A framework for an agent-based model to manage water resources conflictsc. Water Resources Management 27(11):4039-4052

Akhbari M, Grigg NS (2015) Managing water resources conflicts: modelling behavior in a decision tool. Water Resources Management 29(14):5201-5216

An L (2012) Modeling human decisions in coupled human and natural systems: Review of agent-based models. Ecological Modelling 229:25-36

Avarideh F, Attari J, Moridi A (2017) Modelling equitable and reasonable water sharing in transboundary rivers: the case of Sirwan-Diyala River. Water Resources Management 31:1191-1207

Bandini S, Manzoni S, Vizzari G (2009) Agent based modeling and simulation: an informatics perspective. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 12(4), http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/4/4.html

Berglund EZ (2015) Using agent-based modeling for water resources planning and management. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 141(11), 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000544, 04015025

Castilla-Rho JC, Mariethoz G, Rojas R, Andersen MS, Kelly BFJ (2015) An agent-based platform for simulating complex human–aquifer interactions in managed groundwater systems. Environmental Modelling & Software 73:305-323

Darbandsari P, Kerachian R, Malakpour-Estalaki S (2017) An agent-based behavioral simulation model for residential water demand management: The case-study of Tehran, Iran. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory 78:51-72

Farhadi S, Nikoo MR, Rakhshandehroo GR, Akhbari M, Alizadeh MR (2015) An agent-based-nash modeling

framework for sustainable groundwater management:a case study. Agric Water Manag 177:348–58

Grigoryev I (2015) AnyLogic 7 in three days: A quick course in simulation modeling. 2nd edition

Farzaneh M, Bagheri A, Momeni F (2016) A system dynamics insight to institutional context analysis of groundwater resources in Rafsanjan plain. Iran-Water Resources Research 12(2):67-82 (In Persian)

Hatami Yazd A, Davari K, Yousofi A, Ghahraman B (2017) Identifying managerial conflicts among the actors of water resources through analyzing their cognitive maps (Case study: stakeholders of Mashhad plain). Iran-Water Resources Research 13(2):1-17 (In Persian)

Holtz G, Pahl-Wostl C (2012) An agent-based model of groundwater over-exploitation in the Upper Guadiana, Spain. Regional Environmental Change 12(1):95-121

IP (Islamic Parliament) (1982) The rule of water equitable distribution. (In Persian)

Janssen M, Ostrom E (2006) Empirically based, agent-based models. Ecology and Society 11(2)

Lotfi S, Araghinejad S (2017) A review on challenges in application of agent-based models in water resources systems. Iran-Water Resources reserch 13(2):115-126

Macal C M, North M J (2005) Tutorial on agent-based modeling and simulation. Paper presented at the Winter Simulation Conference, Orlando, FL. Retrieved 26 August, 2006, from http://www.informs-sim.org/wsc05papers/002.pdf

Macy MW, Willer R (2002) From factors to actors: Computational sociology and agent-based modeling. Annual review of sociology 143-166

Madani K (2010) Game theory and water resources. Journal of Hydrology 381(3):225-238

Madani K (2014) Water management in Iran: What is causing the looming crisis?. J Environ Stud Sci 4:315-328

Manshadi H, Niksokhan M, Ardestani M (2015) A quantity-quality model for inter-basin water transfer system using game theoretic and virtual water approaches. Water Resources Management 29(13):4573-4588

Mehrparvar M, Ahmadi A, Safavi H R (2015) Social resolution of conflicts over water resources allocation in a river basin using cooperative game theory approaches: a case study. Int. J. River basin Manag 14(1):1-13

Nandalal K, Simonovic S (2003) Resolving conflicts in water sharing: a systemic approach. Water Resources Research 39(12):1-12

 Railsback SF, Grimm V (2013) Agent-based and individual-based modeling: a practical introduction. Princeton University Press

Salari F, Ghorbani M, Malekian A (2015) Social monitoring in local stakeholders network to water resources local governance (case study: Razin watershed, Kermanshah city). Iran-Watershed Management Science and Engineering 68(2):287-305

 Saqalli M, Thiroit S, Amblard F (2010) Investigating social conflicts linked to water resources through agent-based modelling. Complex Societal Dynamics 75:142-157

Sechi G, Zucca R (2015) Water resource allocation in critical scarcity conditions: A bankruptcy game approach. Water Resources Management 29(2):541-555

Soman S, Misgna G, Kraft S, Lant C, Beaulieu J (2011) An agent-based model of multifunctional agricultural landscape using genetic algorithms. American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting Orlando, FL

Zarezadeh M, Madani K, Morid S (2013) Resolving conflicts over transboundary rivers using bankruptcy methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Discuss 10:13855–13887. doi:10.5194/hessd-10-13855

 ZCE (Zayandab Consulting Engineers) (2011) Updating of water resources balance in Gov-Khooni basin. Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran (In Persian)