مدل برنامه ریزی خطی فازی برای بهینه سازی الگوی کشت در حوضه ی زرینه رود

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد/مهندسی منابع آب ، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشیار/ گروه مهندسی آبیاری زهکشی، دانشگاه تهران، پردیس ابوریحان.

3 استادیار /گروه مهندسی آبیاری زهکشی، دانشگاه تهران، پردیس ابوریحان.

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی بزرگ‌ترین مصرف‌کننده‌ی آب بوده و عدم‌قطعیت از جمله مسائل اجتناب‌ناپذیر در مدیریت آب در این بخش است. لذا در مطالعه‌ی حاضر، به‌منظور بهینه‌سازی الگوی کشت در حوضه زرینه‌رود با هدف حداکثرسازیِ سود خالص کشاورزی و با درنظرگیریِ عدم‌قطعیت‌های موجود، از برنامه‌ریزیِ خطیِ تماماً فازی و با دو روشِ حل متفاوت، استفاده شده است. عدم‌قطعیت‌های موجود در تدوین بهینه‌ترین الگوی کشت، با استفاده از روش فازی لحاظ گردیده است و همچنین به‌منظور در نظرگرفتن عدم‌قطعیت‌های ناشی از محدودیتِ مقدار آب دردسترس، سه وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی حداقل، متوسط و حداکثر مقادیر در بهینه‌سازی فازی در نظر گرفته ‌شد. نتایجِ حاصل از اجرای بهینه‌سازیِ تماماً فازی، حاکی از افزایشِ سود خالص به میزان 53/2 درصد نسبت به بهینه‌سازیِ قطعی و افزایشی معادل 34/36 درصد نسبت به الگوی کشت فعلی از طریق کاهش سطوح زیرکشت محصولاتِ با سود خالص کم و افزایش سطح زیرکشت محصولاتِ با درآمد بالا می‌باشد. همچنین استفاده از برنامه‌ریزیِ خطیِ تماماً فازی منجر به صرفه‌جویی بیش‌تری در مصرف آب به میزان 22/88 درصد می‌گردد. درنظرگیری باندهای عدم‌قطعیت 10 و 20 درصدی درخصوص برخی از پارامترهای مدل بهینه‌سازی، به‌ترتیب منجر به ایجاد صرفه‌جوئی بیش‌تر در مصرف آب و حصول سود خالص بیش‌تر از کشت محصولات الگوی کشت می‌گردند. بدین ترتیب، بهینه سازی الگوی کشت با درنظرگیری عدم‌قطعیت‌های حاکم، به‌کمک روش فازی امکان برنامه‌ریزی بهینه‌تر آب کشاورزی را فراهم می‌سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Fuzzy Linear Programming Model for the Optimization of Cropping Pattern in Zarrinehroud Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Asaadi Mehrabani 1
  • M.E. Banihabib 2
  • A. Roozbahany 3
1 Department of irrigation and drainage, University of Tehran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Abouraihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, Abouraihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Agricultural sector is the largest water consumer, and uncertainty is an inevitable aspect of water management in this sector. In this study, fully fuzzy linear programming using two different solutions were applied for multi-objective optimizing of cropping pattern and net benefit in the uncertain conditions for the Zarrinehroud Basin. The uncertainties within the optimized cropping pattern were considered using a fuzzy method. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainties in the amount of available water limitation, three different hydrological conditions were applied to determine maximum, average and minimum of fuzzy bond. The results of optimization by the fully fuzzy linear programming model showed an increase of 2.53% in net benefit comparing to the crisp optimization and an increase of 36.34 percent comparing to the present cropping pattern through decreasing low income crops and increasing high income crops. It is also shown that applying fully fuzzy linear programming instead of crisp linear programming leads to a greater saving in water consumption with the amount of 88.22%. Considering 10% and 20% uncertainty bands for optimization parameters causes more water saving and net benefits from optimal cropping pattern. Therefore, optimization of cropping pattern through considering uncertainties based on fuzzy method leads to a more optimal planning for agricultural water.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fuzzy linear programming
  • optimized cropping pattern
  • Uncertainty
  • Zarrinehroud

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