ارزیابی ریسک برنامه تأمین آب در محیط فازی (مورد مطالعاتی: برنامه جامع تامین آب مشهد تا افق 1450)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 معاون دانشجویی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشجوی مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی داشنگاه فردوسی مشهد-واحد بین الملل

3 استاد دانشگاه فردوسی

4 دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

امروزه تأمین نیازهای آبی برای مصارف مختلف در بسیاری از نقاط دنیا و بویژه ایران از اساسیترین چالشهای پیش روی برنامه ریزان است. بر این اساس تأمین آب از نقاط مختلف و اجرای پروژههای گوناگون، از راهکارهای جاری جهت رفع این چالش در کنار روش های غیرسازه ای بوده و میزان زیادی از اعتبارات و بودجه های ملی را به خود اختصاص میدهد. در این مقاله چارچوب تحلیل ریسک، به کمک روش بارش افکار و دلفی، عوامل مخاطرهآمیز در چهار گزینه ‏ تأمین آب مشهد بررسی و ریسک هر کدام از آنها بر اساس امکان بروز مخاطرات با کمک تئوری امکان و منطق فازی برآورد شده است. نتایج نشان داد، گزینه انتقال پساب دارای امکان ریسک کمتری نسبت به سایر گزینهها می باشد و لذا در اولویت اول تامین آب شهر مشهد قرار می گیرد. همچنین گزینه های تامین آب شهر مشهد به کمک تئوری مارکویتز در قالب یک سبد پروژه مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته اند که نتایج آنها بیانگر حداکثر 55 درصد اعتمادپذیری است. در این پژوهش چارچوب در نظر گرفته شده بر اساس مبانی منطق فازی و تئوری امکان بنا نهاده شده و ضمن تطابق مناسب با روش های جمع آوری اطلاعات بر اساس نظر کارشناسان، می تواند مسیر ساده ای را برای بکارگیری روش شناسی در سایر پروژه های اجرایی تامین آب که عملا به رغم میزان بالای سرمایه گذاری هیچ گونه تصور روشنی از مخاطرات و فرجام برنامه ای آنها وجود ندارد محسوب شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Reliability of project based politics (Case study: Assessment risk Mashhad water supply planning)

چکیده [English]

The water supply for various uses is one of the most fundamental challenges facing planners in Iran and many parts of the world. In order to address these challenges, along with the non-structural management measures, huge proportion of national funds and budget is being allocated to supply water from different locations using different techniques. Despite the diversity of risk assessment methods, they were not suitable to be applied in executive projects. In this paper a consistent framework for assessing the risk of different water supply projects are presented. Then, the challenges and opportunities of each water supply options for Mashhad City whose initial investment hits the amount of 3.75 billion dollar are introduced as well. In this regard, the possible hazards of each option were determined by Brainstorming. Furthermore, the risk of each hazard is calculated based on Fuzzy logic and the happening probability of each hazard. The results showed that the wastewater transfer option is of less possible risk range than other options. The risks of water supply options of Mashhad city were assessed by the Markowitz’s portfolio theory. The results had the maximum 55 % confidence level. The theory of possibility and fuzzy logic are two basic components of the proposed framework, which are completely in accordance with the data collection methods based on expert opinion. Thus, the proposed framework can be used as a simple path to be utilized in other water supply projects which despite vast capital investments, have no clear perspective regarding their future risks.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Mashhad plain
  • risk
  • Uncertainties
  • water supply
  • fuzzy Markowitz method

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