بررسی اثرات تغییراقلیم بر منحنی فرمان بهره‌برداری سدها (مطالعه موردی سد دز)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد مهندسی عمران/ گروه مهندسی آب، واحد استهبان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، استهبان ، ایران

2 دانشیار/ هیئت علمی و مدیر گروه مهندسی آبیاری و زهکشی، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

چکیده

در این مطالعه، روشی به‌منظور بررسی فرض نیاز به تغییر در منحنی فرمان مخازن سدها، در دوره آتی و در شرایط رخداد تغییراقلیم ارائه شده است. بدین‌منظور، با هدف سازگاری میزان رهاسازی از سد با شرایط اقلیمی آینده، مدلی برای ارزیابی اثرات تغییراقلیم بر عملکرد مخزن پیشنهاد شده است. روش پیشنهادی شامل مدل LARS-WG برای تبدیل خروجی‌های مدل CGCM تحت سه سناریوی انتشار A1B, A2, B1 به مقیاس محلی، مدل IHACRES جهت شبیه‌سازی جریان ورودی به مخزن در دوره آتی (2030-2017) (واسنجی شده با آمار دوره پایه (2006-1993)) و مدل بهینه‌سازی فراکاوشی الگوریتم ژنتیک (GA) جهت بهینه‌سازی مقدار آب رهاسازی از مخزن می‌باشد. درنهایت، منحنی فرمان بهره‌برداری سد برای دوره زمانی گذشته و آینده (در سه سناریوی A1B, A2, B1‌) محاسبه‌شده است. نتایج کاربرد متدولوژی پیشنهادی در تعیین منحنی فرمان سد دز در استان خوزستان، نشان داد که علیرغم اصلاح منحنی فرمان با هدف حداقل میزان کمبودها، در شرایط تغییراقلیم در دوره آتی، شاخص تأمین آب، کاهش می‌یابد که میزان این کاهش حدود 7/1 تا 7/5 درصد در شرایط رخداد سناریوهای A2، B1 و A1B بوده است. در صورت عدم اصلاح منحنی فرمان، میزان کمبودها به ‌مراتب بیشتر خواهد بود. درنهایت باید گفت که نادیده گرفتن اثر تغییراقلیم و استفاده از نحوه بهره‌برداری از مخزن دوره پایه برای دوره آینده، موجب کاهش درصد تأمین آب برای تخصیص‌های در نظر گرفته ‌شده خواهد شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

E-valuation impact of climate change on operation rule curves of dam (Case study: Dez dam)

نویسندگان [English]

  • N Nouri 1
  • A. R Massah Bavani 2
1 Departement of water engineering, Estahban Branch , Islamic Azad University, Estahban, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Department of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering,pardis aboureihan, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, a methodology has been proposed for investigating the hypothesis of needs to change of rule curve related to dams reservoir for the future under climate change conditions. A model was proposed in order to adapt with values of water output from climatic future conditions for evaluation of climate change impacts on reservoir performance. The proposed methodology included LARS-WG model for transformation of CGCM model output under three emission scenarios of A1B, A2, B1 to regional scale, and IHACRES model for simulating inflow stream to reservoir for future period (2017-2030), validated using baseline data (1993-2006), and evolutionary optimization model of Genetic Algorithms (GA), whcih is used for optimizing reservoir operation. Finally, rule curve of dam operation was calculated for the past and future period according to three emission scenarios of A1B, A2, B1. Applying the proposed methodology in determination of rule curve in Dez Dam located in Khouzestan province showed that despite the modification of rule curve in order to achieve the less values of shortages in the climate change conditions for the future period, water supply security index will decrease. The reduction percent is between 1.7 to 7.5% under scenarios A2, A1B and B1. If the rule curve is not modified, the values of shortages will be increased more. Finally, it should be mentioned that ignoring the effects of climate change and the usage of operation method from reservoir based on baseline period for future period will reduce water supply security percentage.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Downscaling
  • Dez Dam
  • Reservoir operation

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