توسعه مدل تصمیم‌گیری گروهی چندشاخصه ریسک-محور برای مدیریت مؤثر حوضه‌ آبریز بر مبنای روش ترکیبی IOWA-CP: مطالعه موردی دشت مشهد

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کاندیدای دکتری گروه مهندسی عمران/ دانشکده مهندسی. دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد. مشهد. ایران.

2 دانشیار /گروه مهندسی عمران. دانشکده مهندسی. دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد. مشهد. ایران.

3 استاد/دانشکده مهندسی عمران. دانشگاه تبریز. تبریز. ایران.

4 دانشیار/ گروه مهندسی کشاورزی و بیوسیستم. دانشگاه ایالتی میشیگان.ایست لنسینگ. میشیگان. 48824. ایالات متحده آمریکا.

چکیده

در سال‌های اخیر حکمرانی و مدیریت نامناسب منابع آب، محدودیت کمی و کیفی و تخصیص نامتعادل این منابع، وضعیت حوضه‌های آبریز را با بحران تأمین آب مواجه ساخته است. بنابراین یکی از اساسیترین چالشهای تصمیم‌گیران، انتخاب شاخصهای نهایی تصمیمگیری و ارزیابی طرح‌های تأمین آب براساس شاخصهای منتخب به‌منظور تعیین طرح اولویتدار در حوضه آبریز است. انتخاب شاخصهای نهایی و طرح برتر، به اولویت‌های تصمیم‌گیران و ریسک تصمیمگیری وابسته است. رویکرد این پژوهش، استفاده از دو نوع ارزیابی ریسک در محاسبه امتیاز و درجه اجماع گروهی به‌منظور انتخاب شاخص‌های نهایی و رتبهبندی طرحها است. در ریسک نوع اول تأمین تعداد شاخص‌ها توسط طرح‌ها، و در ریسک نوع دوم اجماع گروهی تعداد تصمیم‌گیران ارزیابی میگردد. برایناساس، وزنها و درجه‌های اجماع گروهی شاخصهای اولیه توسط عملگر میانگین وزنی مرتب استقرایی و روش برنامهریزی سازشی در حالت‌های مختلف ریسک محاسبه می‌گردند. شاخص‌های نهایی با استفاده از ترکیب مقادیر وزن و درجه اجماع و مقایسه با حد آستانه قابلقبول انتخاب میشوند. در ادامه، طرحهای پیشنهادی با توجه به شاخصهای منتخب ارزیابی میگردند و براساس روش ترکیبی، رتبه‌بندی طرحها از دیدگاه تصمیمگیران در حالت‌های مختلف ریسک مشخص می‌گردد. مدل پیشنهادی در تعیین شاخص‌های نهایی و طرح برتر مدیریت دشت مشهد برای سال 1420 توسعه یافته است. نتایج بیان‌گر وابستگی تعداد شاخصهای منتخب و رتبه طرح‌ها به دو نوع ارزیابی ریسک تصمیم‌گیری است. در مقایسه نهایی طرحها، در تحلیلی مبتنی بر تأمین مهمترین شاخصهای اهداف توسعه پایدار، طرح‌های اولویتدار مشخص گردیدند. توسعه فرآیند تصمیم‌گیری گروهی در این تحقیق برای مدیریت جامع حوضه‌های آبریز کشور پیشنهاد می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing a Risk-based Multiple Attribute Group Decision-Making Model for Effective Watershed Management based on the combinational method of IOWA-CP: Case Study of Mashhad Plain

نویسندگان [English]

  • R. Javidi Sabbaghian 1
  • M. B Sharifi 2
  • M. Zarghami 3
  • A. P Nejadhashemi 4
1 PhD Candidate, Civil Engineering Department, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
4 Associate Professor at Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Michigan State University
چکیده [English]

In recent years, inappropriate governance in water resources, qualitative and quantitative degradation and unbalanced allocation of resources, have caused to crisis within the watersheds. Therefore, one of the most important challenges for decision-makers (DMs) is selection of final criteria, evaluation of scenarios, and choosing the preferable scenario for watershed. Selection of final criteria and the best scenario depend on DMs’ preferences and risk attitudes. This paper develops a novel approach based on two types of risk assessment to calculate the score and group consensus degree for selecting final criteria and scenarios’ ranking. In the first type, number of criteria are satisfied, and in the second type, number of DMs’ consensus are considered. Accordingly, the group weights and consensus degrees of initial criteria are calculated in several risk attitudes, using the ordered weighted averaging operator and the compromise programming. The final criteria are selected based on the combinational group weights-consensus degrees, compared with an acceptable threshold level. Then, the suggested scenarios are evaluated with respect to the final criteria, and the best scenario is selected based on the proposed method using the risk assessments. This approach has been developed for Mashhad plain, to select the final criteria and the best scenario in 2040. The results show that the number of final criteria and scenarios’ ranking depend on the two risk assessment types. Finally, the sustainable development was analyzed to determine the preferable scenarios for satisfying the most important criteria. Development of this method is recommended for watershed management in Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Multiple Attribute Decision Making
  • Induced Ordered Weighted Averaging
  • Compromise Programming
  • Risk Assessment
  • Mashhad plain

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