ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم در دو دهه گذشته و دو دهه آینده بر پارامترهای دما و بارش یخچال علم‌کوه با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره ای و سناریوهای CMIP5

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، دانشکده عمران، آب و محیطزیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.

2 دانشآموخته کارشناسیارشد، دانشکده عمران، آب و محیطزیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی.

چکیده

در این  تحقیق به تأثیرات تغییرات اقلیم بر یخچال علم‌کوه در استان مازندران با استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‎ای LANDSAT-8 و LANDSAT-7  و همچنین رگرسیون داده‎‌های مشاهداتی بارش و دما در دو دهه گذشته (2020-2000) و مدل‌های AOGCM با سناریوهای  CMIP5 برای پیش‌بینی وضعیت یخچال در دو دهه آینده (2040-2020) پرداخته شده است. داده‌های پیش‌بینی‌شده با استفــاده از مدل‌های  AOGCMشامل EC-EARTH، GFDL-CM3، HadGEM2-ES، MIRO-C5 و MPI-ESM-MR برای دوره 2040-2020 و با یک دوره 35 ساله مشاهده ‌شده در سال‌های 2014-1984 مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند. برای ریزمقیاس‌نمایی داده‌ها از مدل LARS-WG نسخه 6.0 استفاده شد. برای یافتن بهترین مدل که داده‌های پیش‌بینی‌شده با داده‌های دوره تاریخی تناسب داشته باشند از روش تعیین کمترین خطا (شامل RMSE و R2) استفاده شد و مدل‎های EC-EARTH و MIRO-C5 دارای خطای کمتری در بین 5 مدل بودند. محاسبات نشان می‌دهند که منفی شش درصد (%6-) کاهش بارندگی و نه درصد افزایش دما (%9) نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی در این منطقه به‌وجود می‌آید. همچنین، نتایج بدست آمده در این تحقیق در طی بیست سال گذشته نشان‌دهنده کاهش بارش، افزایش دما و کاهش تدریجی سطح برف و یخ علم کوه به‌خصوص در فصل تابستان می‌باشد و زوال تدریجی این یخچال را در پی دارد. ذوب کامل برف و یخ یخچال در فصل تابستان تهدید جدی برای منابع آب پایین دست منطقه و محیط‎زیست اطراف این یخچال مهم می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of The Impact of Climate Change Through the Last Two Decades and the Next Two Decades on the Temperature and Precipitation Parameters of Alamkuh Glacier Using Satellite Images and CMIP5 Scenarios

نویسندگان [English]

  • Homayoun Motiee 1
  • Amir Reza Motiee 2
  • Sahar Mmortaz Hejri 2
1 Associate Professor, Civil, Water and Environmental Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
2 M.Sc. Graduate, Civil, Water and Environmental Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In this research, the impact of climate change on the snow and ice covering of Alamkuh glacier in Mazandaran province was assessed using LANDSAT-7, LANDSAT-8 satellite images as well as the regression trends of historical data of precipitation and temperature in the last two decades (2000-2020) as well as projection of GCM models with CMIP5 scenarios over the next two decades (2020-2040). Projected data were evaluated using GCM models including EC-EARTH, GFDL-CM3, HadGEM2-ES, MIRO-C5 and MPI-ESM-MR for the period of 2020-to 2040. The observation data were used with 35-year period (1984- 2014) and LARS-WG-6 was used for GCM models downscaling. The least error method (including RMSE and R2) was used to find the model in which the predicted data best fit the historical period data; the MIRO-C5 model had the lowest error among the 5 models. The results obtained for the last twenty years showed a gradual decrease in the surface of the snow and ice of Alamkuh region, especially in the summer, demonstrating the gradual decline of this glacier. Complete melting of the glacier in summer poses a serious threat to the downstream water resources of the area and the environment around the glacier.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • AOGCM Models
  • Alamkuh glacier
  • LARS-WG6
  • Satellite Imagery
  • Landsat
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