توسعه مدل هیدرولوژیکی روزانه بارش- رواناب برای شبیه سازی آب ورودی به سد بوکان و کمی سازی تأثیرات خشکسالی شدید تاریخی با به کارگیری مدل WEAP و کالیبراسیون چند هدفه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد محیطزیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف.

2 پژوهشگر مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و علوم زمین، دانشگاه صنعتی دلفت هلند.

3 استاد گروه آب و محیطزیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی شریف.

چکیده

با افزایش خشکسالی‌ها و افزایش مصرف آب در بخش کشاورزی، دریاچه ارومیه با بحران کم آبی روبرو شده ‌‌است. هدف این تحقیق، توسعه یک مدل هیدرولوژیکی به منظور شبیه‌سازی روزانه رواناب ورودی به سد بوکان است تا از آن برای شبیه‌سازی مؤلفه‌های بیلان آب در زیرحوضه‌‎های بالادست این سد با نگرشی نوین نسبت به تحقیقات مشابه استفاده شود. با استفاده از روش رطوبت خاک، یک مخزن برای شبیه‌سازی روزانه ذخیره برف و مخزن دیگر برای شبیه‌سازی روزانه رطوبت منطقه ریشه درنظر گرفته می‌شود. به‌منظور تخمین مقدار بهینه پارامترهای کالیبراسیون، از کالیبراسیون دو هدفه MOPSO1 برای بیشینه‌‌سازی دقت شبیه‌­سازی دبی و لگاریتم دبی مشاهداتی استفاده شده ‌است. نتایج نشان داد بین به حداکثر رساندن دو تابع هدف موازنه2 کمی وجود دارد، درواقع هیچ خطای بزرگی در مدل وجود ندارد که مانع از بهبود هم‌زمان هر دو تابع هدف شود. نتایج کالیبراسیون نشان می‌­دهد که مقدار میانگین معیار نش- ساتکلیف3 زیرحوضه‌های بالادست سد بوکان برای شبیه‌سازی دبی و لگاریتم دبی مشاهداتی به ترتیب برابر 0/43 و 0/63 و این مقادیر برای مرحله واسنجی به ترتیب برابر 0/54 و 0/57 بدست آمد. مدل‌سازی بیلان آب حاکی از آن است که بارش و رواناب ورودی به سد در دوره خشکسالی شدید به ترتیب 32 و 40 درصد و رطوبت خاک و ذخیره برف در منطقه به ترتیب 158 و 32 درصد نسبت به دوره بلندمدت کاهش یافته‌اند. مدل توسعه یافته می‌تواند به منظور پیش‌بینی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب ورودی به سد و برنامه‌ریزی برای تخصیص بهینه منابع آب سد بوکان مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of a Daily Rainfall-Runoff Model to Simulate the Bukan Reservoir Inflow and Quantify the Effects of Severe Historical Drought Using WEAP Model and MultiObjective Calibration

نویسندگان [English]

  • Amirreza Meydani 1
  • Amirhossein Dehghanipour 2
  • Masoud Tajrishy 3
1 M.Sc. Student of Environmental Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 Researcher of Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geoscience, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Urmia Lake has faced a water shortage crisis and a sharp decline in water level due to decreasing precipitation and increasing water consumption in the agricultural sector. This study aims to develop a hydrological model to simulate the daily inflow of Bukan reservoir and simulate the water balance components for the upstream sub-basins of this reservoir through a new approach. In this study, two separate storages are considered for daily simulation of snow and root zone soil moisture, and multi-objective calibration (MOPSO) is applied to simultaneously maximize the simulation accuracy of observed river discharge and logarithm of river discharge. The results showed a relatively little trade-off between maximizing the two objective functions to estimate the optimal value of the calibration parameters. In other words, there is no significant error in the model that simultaneously prevents improving both objective functions. Results showed that the average Nash-Sutcliffe criterion for simulation of river discharge and the logarithm of river discharge were respectively 0.43 and 0.63 in the calibration and 0.54 and 0.57 in the validation step. Water balance modeling indicated that precipitation and inflow to the reservoir were decreased respectively by 32% and 40% in severe drought years and soil moisture and snow accumulation were reduced by 32% and 158%, respectively, compared to the long-term period. The developed model can predict the effects of climate change and climate variability on Bukan reservoir inflow and optimally allocate reservoir water to satisfy water demand.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urmia Lake Basin
  • Bukan reservoir
  • Multi-Objective Optimization
  • Soil moisture method
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