تغییرات مکانی و زمانی روند در دما و بارش حوضه آبریز فرامرزی ارس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

2 استاد، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران.

3 استادیار، پژوهشکده مطالعات و تحقیقات منابع آب، موسسه تحقیقات آب، تهران.

4 کارشناسی ارشد، عمران- آب، رئیس گروه رودخانههای مرزی و منابع آب مشترک شمال غرب کشور، دفتر رودخانه های مرزی و منابع آب مشترک، وزارت نیرو، تهران.

چکیده

رودخانه فرامرزی ارس طی سال­‌های اخیر، روند کاهشی قابل‌­توجهی در نقطه ورودی سد ارس داشته است. به‌­منظور علت‌­یابی این مشکل، به ارزیابی روند تغییرات متغیرهای هواشناسی در این حوضه پرداخته شد. به‌­سبب فرامرزی بودن منطقه مطالعاتی و نبود دسترسی به داده­‌های مشاهداتی، از محصولات ماهواره­ای TRMM3B43V71 و PERSIANN_CDR و پایگاه داده­‌های اقلیمی CRU2 به‌عنوان منابع جایگزین استفاده شد. ارزیابی محصولات بارشی بر اساس معیارهای آماری نشان داد که TRMM3B43V7 با ضریب همبستگی 0/87 و 0/74 و ریشه دوم میانگین مربعات خطا 65/64 و 84/56 میلی­متر و همچنین مقدار اریبی 6/75 و 18/6 درصد، به ترتیب در ایستگاه‌های باران‌­سنجی قارص و ماکو بهترین عملکرد را داشته است. همچنین، پایگاه داده­‌های اقلیمی CRU با ضریب همبستگی بالا و RMSE پایین و تنها با 3/7 درصد کم برآوردی نتایج قابل قبولی در برآورد دما در منطقه مطالعاتی داشت. به‌­منظور بررسی روند تغییرات بارش و دما، از آزمون‌های ناپارامتری من­- کندال و شیب سنس بهره گرفته ­شد. نتایج نشان داد که روند تغییرات بارش در مقیاس سالانه، جز در قسمت‌­های مرکزی حوضه، به صورت افزایشی بوده است. این تغییرات در مقیاس فصلی بیشتر خود را نشان می‌­دهد، به نحوی که در فصل بهار روند تغییرات به صورت کاهشی و در فصل پاییز به صورت افزایشی بوده است. دما نیز بطور یکسان در کل منطقه مطالعاتی سیر صعودی را نشان می‌­دهد. باتوجه به نتایج تحقیق، ملاحظه شد که عوامل اقلیمی برای توجیه کاهش ورودی‌ها به سد ارس کافی نیستند و بررسی عوامل انسانی به همراه اثر ذوب برف نیز لازم به توجه هستند که در دستور کار ادامه این مطالعات است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial and Temporal Variation of Temperature and Precipitation Trends of Aras Transboundary River Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mehrab Nouri 1
  • Saeid Morid 2
  • Nematollah Karimi 3
  • Hoshang Gholami 4
1 M.Sc. Graduate Student of Water Resources Engineering, College of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering and Management, College of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Research Institute for Water Resources Studies and Research, Water Research Institute, Tehran, Iran.
4 M.Sc., Civil–Water Engineering, Head of Department of North Western Border Rivers and Shared Water Resources, Office of Border Water Resources and Shared Water Resources, Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The Aras transboundary river has experienced a significant decreasing trend in inflow to the Aras Dam in recent years. In order to find out the cause, trend of changes in meteorological variables was evaluated. Working on a cross-border study area and lack of access to observational data, forced the use of TRMM3B43V7 and PERSIANN_CDR satellite products and CRU climate database as alternative data sources. Evaluation of precipitation products based on statistical criteria showed that the TRMM3B43V7 with R of 0.87 and 0.74 and RMSE of 65.64 and 84.56 mm and also, the BIAS values of 6.75% and 18.6%, respectively at the Kars and Mako stations had the best performance. Also, CRU climate database with high R and low RMSE and only 3.7% low estimate had acceptable results in temperature estimation in the study area. In order to investigate the trend of precipitation and temperature changes, non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sense slope tests were used. The results showed that the trend of changes in precipitation on annual scale, except in the central parts of the basin, has been increasing. This change is more on seasonal scale, so that in the spring there was a downward trend and in the fall a reinforcer. Temperature also shows an uniform upward trend throughout the study area. According to the research, it is shown that climatic factors are not sufficient to justify the reduction of the inflow to the Aras Dam and the evaluation of human factors along with the effect of snowmelt is also necessary which is on the agenda of continuation to this study.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Aras Transboundary Basin
  • Precipitation And Temperature Trend
  • CRU
  • Persiann-CDR
  • TRMM
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