مدیریت و بهره‌برداری تلفیقی از منابع‌آب‌ سطحی و زیرزمینی با استفاده از تکنیک سناریو‌نگاری، مطالعه موردی: دشت‌افزر-استان فارس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

2 استادیار دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

3 استاد دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه صنعتی اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.

چکیده

امروزه رشد جمعیت و همچنین افزایش سطح رفاه اجتماعی موجب افزایش تقاضاهای مختلف ‌‌و غیر‌قابل پیش‌بینی از منابع آب شده که ممکن است سبب اختلال در موجودیت منابع ‌آبی شود؛ ازاین رو بهره‌برداری تلفیقی با استفاده از روش سناریو‌نگاری می‌تواند اطمینان‌پذیری استفاده از منابع آب را در شرایط وجود عدم‌قطعیت‌ها افزایش دهد. در این تحقیق از خروجی‌های سه مدل گردش عمومی جو‌- اقیانوس ‌و ریزمقیاس‌سازی آن توسط مدل LARS-WG تحت سناریو‌های RCP4.5 برای بررسی تغییرات آب ‌و هوایی محدوده مطالعاتی دشت‌افزر در استان فارس استفاده شده‌ و در نهایت با استفاده از مدل WEAP سناریو‌های ممکن‌ و محتمل مدیریت تلفیقی برای آینده 5 ساله شبیه‌سازی شده ‌است؛ تا بهترین سناریو جهت احیای منابع آب زیرزمینی انتخاب شود. این سناریو‌ها شامل: 1- ادامه روند موجود؛ 2- توسعه شبکه آبیاری؛ 3- احداث حوضچه‌های تغذیه مصنوعی؛ 4-انتقال آب به شهرهای مجاور از سد سلمان‌فارسی؛ 5- اجرای هم‌زمان سناریوهای 2 تا 4؛ 6- مدیریت مصرف و 7- احداث سد کوار در بالادست سد سلمان‌فارسی در ‌‌شرایط سناریو مدیریت مصرف می‌باشد. خروجی هریک از این سناریو‌ها با استفاده از معیارهای عملکرد ‌و شاخص پایداری فازی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته شده ‌است. نتایج نشان داد که نمی‌توان تغییر‌اقلیم را به عنوان عامل اصلی روند نزولی سطح آب زیرزمینی دانست؛ همچنین از بین سناریو‌های فوق، تنها سناریویی که می‌تواند باعث توقف روند نزولی سطح آب زیرزمینی شود، کاهش 35 درصدی در مصرف کشاورزی می‌باشد. احداث سد کوار در شرایط سناریوی مدیریت مصرف، مجاز خواهد بود حداکثر 30 درصد دبی متوسط ورودی از این نقطه به سد سلمان را در خود ذخیره کند؛ چرا که در‌غیر این صورت مشکلات مدیریت منابع‌ و مصارف مربوط به سد سلمان‌فارسی، دو‌چندان خواهد ‌شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Management and Conjunctive Use of Surface and Ground Water Resources Using Scenario Development Technique, Case study: Dasht-Afzar in Fars Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeid Sepehrifar 1
  • Mohammad Hosein Golmohammadi 2
  • Hamid Reza Safavi 3
1 M.Sc. Graduate, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Nowadays, population growth and increasing the level of social welfare have led to increased and unpredictable demand for water resources that may disrupt the water resources availability. Therefore, conjunctive use based on the scenario planning method can increase the reliability of the water resources utilization in the presence of uncertainties. In this study, the outputs of three atmospheric-ocean general circulation models have been used to assess climate change effects on the Dasht-Afzar of Fars province. In this regard, the LARS-WG model has been applied to downscaling climate models under RCP4.5 scenario. Then to select the best scenario for groundwater resources reclamation, the WEAP model has been used to simulate possible and probable integrated management scenarios for the next 5 years. These scenarios were; 1) Continuation of the current condition, 2) Development of irrigation network, 3) Construction of artificial nutrition ponds, 4) Water transfer from Salman Farsi dam to neighboring cities, 5) Consumption management, 6) Construction of Kavar dam upstream Salman Farsi dam, and 7) Simultaneous implementation of scenarios 2 to 4 in the consumption management scenario conditions. Performance criteria as well as fuzzy sustainability index were employed to evaluate each scenario's outputs. The results indicated that climate change could not be considered as the main factor in the downward trend of groundwater level. Also, the only scenario that can stop that trend is a 35% reduction in agricultural consumption. In the consumption management scenario, the construction of the Kavar dam will be allowed to store a maximum of 30% of the average flow rate to the Salman dam. Because otherwise, the resource management problems and costs related to the Salman Farsi dam will be increased.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Conjunctive use
  • Scenario Development
  • WEAP model
  • Uncertainty
  • climate change
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