شبیه سازی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب حوضه شازند با استفاده از مدل توزیعی WetSpa

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی آب/گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه اراک.

2 استادیار/ گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه اراک.

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب/ گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

چکیده

آشکار شدن تغییرات اقلیمی و اثر آن بر بخش‌های مختلف چرخه آب، ضرورت آگاهی از وضعیت منابع آب به‌منظور مدیریت صحیح منابع را تأکید می‌کند. در مطالعه حاضر با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیک WetSpa به بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر رواناب حوضه آبریز شازند پرداخته شده است. در این تحقیق ابتدا مدل WetSpa برای حوضه، اجرا و واسنجی شد و سپس خروجی مدل CanESM تحت سه سناریو انتشار وارد مدل ریزمقیاس SDSM گردید و داده‌های هواشناسی سال‌های آتی دریافت شد و در نهایت تغییر رواناب حوضه مورد مطالعه در سال‌های آتی با استفاده از مدل هیدرولوژیک تهیه شده، تعیین گردید. نتایج مدل CanESM2 نشان داد که در اکثر ایستگاه‌ها مقادیر دما افزایش و میزان بارش کاهش می‌یابد که از این بین، سناریو RCP 8.5 تغییرات بیشتری را نشان می‌دهد. نتایج حاصل از شبیه‌سازی رواناب تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم حاکی از کاهش میزان رواناب است که مقدار برای سناریوهای RCP 2.6، RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 برابر 53/5 ،89/13 و 1/25 درصد می‌باشد. همچنین همخوانی بالای هیدروگراف‌های محاسبه‌ای و مشاهده‌ای بخصوص برای جریان‌های بالا، طبق شاخص ناش-ساتکلیف (به ترتیب 92 و 86 درصد برای دوره واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی) تأکید بر قابلیت بالای مدل WetSpa در شبیه‌سازی حوضه آبریز شازند دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of Climate Change Effect on The Runoff of Shazand Basin Applying WetSpa Distributional Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Morvarid Younesifard 1
  • Shahla Paimozd 2
  • Mahdi Rahimi 3
1 M.Sc. Graduate of Water Engineering, Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water engineering, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, Iran.
3 M.Sc. Graduate of Water Resources Engineering, Department of Irrigation & Reclamation Engineering, Tehran University, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The appearance of climate change and its effect on different parts of water cycle make it essential to be aware of the status of water resources to correctly manage water resources. In this study, at first, the WetSpa model was implemented and calibrated for the basin, and then the output of the CanESM model was entered in to the downscaling model of SDSM under three scenarios and the meteorological data of coming years was received and finally the change of the runoff of the studied basin was determined by the use of hydrologic model for the coming years. The results of CanESM2 confirmed that at the most stations the temperature values would increase and the amount of precipitation would decrease, RCP 8.5 scenario shows more changes. The results of runoff simulation under climate change scenarios indicate a decrease in runoff amount and this amount was 5.53%, 13.89% and 25.1% for RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The high compatibility of the computational and the observational hydrographs, especially for the high inflows which were 92% and 86% for calibration and validation period based on the Nash-Sutcliffe index, emphasizes the efficiency of WetSpa model in the simulation of Shazand catchment.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • WetSpa Model
  • SDSM model
  • CANESM2 Model
  • Shazand Catchment
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