ارزیابی آثار بالقوه خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی بر وضعیت کشاورزی، بازده درآمدی و مصارف آبی کشاورزان استان تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی/ دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

2 دانشیار/ اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

3 استاد/ علوم کشاورزی (بیوتکنولوژی) دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی پدیده‌ای است که در اثر کاهش عرضه منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی رخ می‌دهد و به دلیل وابستگی بخش کشاورزی به ذخیره رطوبتی خاک، قبل از هر چیز این بخش را تحت تأثیر خود قرار می‌دهد. بنابراین، تحلیل اثرات این پدیده برای مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی بهتر منابع آب موجود در بخش کشاورزی حائز اهمیت است. در این مطالعه برای تحلیل اقتصادی اثرات بالقوه خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی ناشی از کاهش عرضه منابع آب بر وضعیت کشاورزی، بازده درآمدی و مصارف آبی کشاورزان استان تهران از الگوی برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت چند دوره‌ای (MP-PMP) و اطلاعات آماری مربوط به دوره پنج‌ساله 1397-1392 استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که الگوی فعلی کشت در استان تهران بهینه نیست و با رخداد خشکسالی، تمایل کشاورزان برای توسعه سطح زیرکشت محصولات پرآب هندوانه و آفتابگردان کاهش می‌یابد. همچنین، نتایج نشان داد که در شرایط رخداد خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی حدود 13/9 درصد تقاضای آب بخش کشاورزی استان تهران بدون پاسخ مانده و تأمین نخواهد شد که این امر موجبات تغییر الگوی کشت در منطقه را فراهم می‌کند. کاهش 28/7 درصدی بازده درآمدی کشاورزان و افزایش 2/38 درصدی ارزش اقتصادی آب آبیاری نسبت به دوره مبنا از دیگر پیامدهای وقوع خشکسالی هیدرولوژیکی در استان تهران است. به طور کلی، نتایج گویای آن است که با وقوع خشکسالی الگوی کشت زراعی به نفع محصولات با نیاز آبی پایین‌تر و سود بالاتر تغییر می‌کند، ولی در مورد محصولات گوجه‌فرنگی و ذرت دانه‌ای علی‌رغم نیاز آبی بالا به دلیل وجود کشاورزی تلفیقی در منطقه، کاهش سطح زیرکشت کمتری مشاهده می‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of the Potential Effects of Hydrological Drought on Agricultural Situation, Farmers’ Revenue and Water Consumptions in Tehran Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abozar Parhizkari 1
  • Qolamreza Yavari 2
  • Abolfazl Mahmodi 2
  • Qolamreza Bakhshi khaniki 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Payam Noor, Tehran, Iran.
3 Professor of Agricultural Science (Biotechnology) Payam Noor University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Hydrological drought is a phenomenon that occurs due to the reduction of surface water and groundwater resources supply. Because of the dependence of the agricultural sector to soil moisture storage, it primarily affects this sector. Therefore, the analysis of the effects of this phenomenon is important for the better management and planning of water resources available in the agricultural sector. Theeffects of hydrological drought arising from reducing the supply of water resources on agricultural situation, water consumptions and farmers' gross profit in Tehran province were evaluated. For this purpose from Multi Period Positive Mathematical Programming and statistical information related to period 2013-2018 wereused. The results showed that the current cropping pattern in Tehran province is not optimal and with occurrence of hydrological drought, farmers’ tend decreases for the water-full crops such as watermelon, tomato and sunflower. In addition, the results showed that in the hydrological drought conditions, about 9.13 percent of agricultural water demand in Tehran province will not provided. This will change the pattern of cultivation inthe region. Reduction in the farmers' gross margin amunt 7.28 percent and increase in the economic value of irrigation water amunt 38.2 percent compared to the base period are other consequences the occurrence of hydrological drought in Tehran province. Overall, the results indicate that with the occurrence of drought, the cropping pattern toward products with lower water requirements and higher profits, but for tomato and corn products (despite the high water requirement) due to integrated farming in region reducing acreage is less visible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydrological drought
  • Agricultural Water Supply
  • Income Status
  • Multi-Period PMP Model
  • Tehran
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