ارزیابی تغییرات شدت، مدت و دورۀ بازگشت بارش های کوتاه مدت با استفاده از مدل تغییر اقلیم منطقه ای (مطالعۀ موردی: تهران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد /گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه بین‌المللی خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران

2 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد منابع آب، دانشگاه بین‌المللی خمینی(ره)، قزوین، ایران.

چکیده

پدیده تغییر اقلیم و گرمایش جهانی یکی از بزرگ‌ترین چالش‌های عصر حاضر می‌باشد که چرخۀ هیدرولوژیکی در مقیاس جهانی و منطقه‌ای را تحت تأثیر قرار داده است. بارش به عنوان یکی از عناصر اقلیمی بطور مستقیم تحت تاثیر افزایش دمای متوسط جهانی قرار گرفته است. یکی از مهم‌ترین اثرات سوء تغییر اقلیم، افزایش وقوع رخدادهای حدی نظیر بارش‌های شدید و متعاقب آن بروز سیل‌های ناگهانی می‌باشد. در پژوهش حاضر در ابتدا وجود روند و جهش در بارش‌های کوتاه مدت مشاهداتی در شهر تهران (ایستگاه سینوپتیک مهرآباد) بررسی گردید. بدین منظور از آزمون من-کندال برای روند و آزمون کیو سام برای جهش در داده‌های بارش 10 دقیقه تا 3 ساعت استفاده شد. یافته‌ها حاکی از وجود روند افزایشی در بارش‌های کوتاه مدت ایستگاه مورد مطالعه در سطح 99 درصد و وقوع جهش اقلیمی در این داده‌ها در سال 1978 می‌باشد. به منظور استفاده از قابلیت‌ ریزمقیاس نمایی دینامیکی در پژوهش حاضر که نیازمند تفکیک مکانی زیاد می‌باشد، از مدل منطقه‌ای PRECIS برای دوره آماری ثبت شده پس از سال جهش و همچنین تحت سناریوهای انتشار A2 و B2 برای آینده و با اعمال یک روش ویژه برای ریزمقیاس نمایی زمانی استفاده به عمل آمد. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل شدت، مدت، فراوانی بارش‌های کوتاه مدت و بررسی IDFهای تولید شده از بارش‌های حدی نشان داد که در آینده دور یعنی دورۀ 2070-2100 مقدار و شدت بارش به میزان قابل توجهی در یک دوره بازگشت معین افزایش می‌یابد. همچنین فراوانی و احتمال وقوع بارش‌های حدی با افزایش قابل توجهی همراه خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating Intensity, Duration and Frequency of Short Duration Rainfalls Using a Regional Climate Change model (Case study: Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Alireza Shokoohi 1
  • Roya Habibnejad 2
1 Professor, Water engineering department, Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 MSc. graduated student, Water Engineering department, Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Climate change and global warming are the biggest challenges in the present era which have affected the global and regional hydrologic cycles. Precipitation is one of the climate elements that has been directly affected by rising global average temperatures. One of the most important negative effects of climate change is increasing the intense precipitation and henceforth occurring flash floods. The present study firstly analyzed the trend and jump of the short duration observed rainfalls (10 minutes to 3-hour duration) in the Mehrabad station located in the west of Tehran by using Mann-Kendal and CUSUM approaches, respectively. The trend test indicated an increasing trend in the short duration rainfalls amount at the 99% confidence level while 1978 was distinguished as the jumping year. For using dynamic downscaling to meet the fine spatial resolution required in the present study, the PRECIS regional model was employed to evaluate the changes in the intensity, duration, and frequency of the short duration rainfalls, derived from the daily rainfalls by applying a special time downscaling factor, after the year of the jump for historical data and also under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios for future. The results of the IDF analysis showed that in the far future (2070-2100) the amount and intensity of precipitation would increase significantly over a given return period. There is also a significant increase in the frequency and probability of occurrence of extreme precipitation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Jump
  • Trend
  • IDF
  • PRECIS
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