Analysis of Temperature Fluctuations in the South West of Iran Based on General Circulation Model and Neural Network (Case Study: Plain and Mountainous Stations)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Expert of the National Center for Drought and Meteorological Crisis Management, Iran Meteorological Organization, Tehran, Iran.

2 Ph.D. in Climatology, Zanjan University.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze the cycle-by and mutations South West's average temperature based on neural networks and models of general circulation of the atmosphere under climate change scenarios is. The data used in this study consisted of an average daily temperature stations in Ahwaz, Abadan, Branch, Branch, Lorestan, Sanandaj, turpentine, Arak and Hamadan NCEP analyzes the data and outputs data model HadCM3 global climate model is the third generation under the A2 and B2 scenarios for the base period (1991-1961 AD) is. In this study, except for the prediction of other Mrajl including calibration data, assessment and validation of the model in MATLAB and have been used to map the Svrfr. The temperature is estimated based on the output of general circulation models scenario A2a and B2a Hadcm3 in most areas by the year 2099 has increased by 5.1 ° C has enjoyed. The results of the analysis showed that the temperature cycles based on the output of neural networks and models of general circulation in the scenario A2a and B2a with short cycles 2 to 4 years of ruling. The results of the test show that the average temperature on the South West Alexander Lumber Iran from 2050 onwards mutation means of extrusion.

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References

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History

  • Receive Date: 11 February 2019
  • Revise Date: 09 July 2019
  • Accept Date: 09 July 2019

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