Evaluation of contaminant transport model Uncertainty in column experiment

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D Student of Hydrogeology, Geology Department, University of Tabriz , Tabriz, Iran

2 Ph.D in Hydrogeology, Professor, Geology Department, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran

Abstract

To assess the uncertainty of contaminant transport models in column experiments selecting the reliable models for simulating column experiments and estimation of reliable parameters, is essential for the identification of processes governing contaminant transport. So overall goal of this study is specifying the uncertainty associated with the development model by defining several conceptual models for selecting the most probable model and the best estimate of contaminant transport models parameters and model prediction. For exploring uncertainty in column experiment, we consider four models from the literature including the equilibrium and non-equilibrium convection dispersion models. CDE1 and CDE2 convection-dispersion models, MIM1 and MIM2 mobile-immobile models. The model selection criteria are used to evaluate the probabilities of the four models. Using the full covariance matrix that consider residual correlation will couse definitive recommendations on the basis of AIC, AICc, BIC, and KIC statistics and model probability. The result show that the distribution of probability between models is not uniform and for slow flow case because equilibrium assumption may be satisfied, CDE2 and for high flow case MIM1 are receiving High model probability. Finally we can conclude from this study that the reliability of the model’s data interpretation can be improved by considering alternative transport processes and quantifying uncertainty in the experiment.

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References

 
 
Iran-Water Resources Research
Volume 13, Issue 1
May 2017
Pages 111-125

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History

  • Receive Date: 02 July 2016
  • Revise Date: 20 September 2016
  • Accept Date: 20 September 2016

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