Rainfall –Runoff Prediction By Stochastic Models (Case Study: Watershed of Kardeh Dam)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant professor, Dept. of Water Eng., Birjand University, Birjand, Iran

2 Instructor, Dept. of statistics&computer., Sistan & Balochestan University, Zahedan, Iran

Abstract

Stochastic models are among the most suitable methods for predicting Hydro-climatological data with seasonal variability incorporated with random processes. State space model of the second order was utilized to predict rainfall - runoff for one or more lag times. The input-output variables were modeled separately and the seasonal models of Box and Jenkins family was applied for description of both variables in Kardeh basin. This basin is located in the north-east of Mashhad city with an area of 242 square kilometers. The predicted monthly values of rainfall and runoff were calculated for the second half of the year 2005 and the beginning six months of 2006. The procedure is applicable to other similar basins.

Keywords

References

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Iran-Water Resources Research
Volume 5, Issue 2
June 2009
Pages 53-61

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History

  • Receive Date: 16 April 2007
  • Accept Date: 22 June 2009

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