Impact of Uncertainty on Risk indices in Reservoir Operation

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

2 Graduate student, Department of Water Engineering, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran

Abstract

As a result of system complexity and incomplete information, the planning process, the  “with” and “without” conditions, the project's performance and impacts, and the benefits and costs are never certain. Accordingly, the valuation of uncertainty is a “must”, even on the risk indices as a sub set of uncertainty. This paper focuses on the effects of two main sources of uncertainty; i.e. data and parameter uncertainty, on the risk indices in reservoir simulation and optimization. In reservoir simulation, the effects of uncertainties in simple/disaggregated time series models are studied on the well-known reservoir efficiency indices; i.e. volumetric and occurrence reliabilities. Two additional risk indices; i.e. vulnerability and resilience are also studied. A stochastic dynamic programming model (DPR) is used to study the effects of data continuity uncertainty on reservoir operation rule. In this case the effects of data continuity uncertainty on two indices of Reliability and Losses have been evaluated. Two reservoirs under construction in Fars province, IRAN, have been selected for case study. The results show that the incorporation of uncertainty (i.e. data/parameter uncertainty) in simulation and optimization impact the risk indices differently as the flow variability condition and reservoir storage and  operation changes. These results can help the designer to select the appropriate risk indices for reservoir operation.

Keywords

References

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Iran-Water Resources Research
Volume 2, Issue 3
June 2007
Pages 13-26

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History

  • Receive Date: 24 December 2003
  • Revise Date: 26 November 2006
  • Accept Date: 03 February 2007

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