Evaluating the effect of discharge - probability function uncertainty on the risk of agricultural loss due to flood using Monte Carlo method

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor of Water Structure Dept., Shahroud University of Technology, Shahroud, Iran

2 Professor of Water Engineering Dept. Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran

3 Professor of Department of Water Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, USA

Abstract

Risk analysis, because of employing mathematical models for evaluating confronted hazards and also pertinent vulnerability, introduces errors in results. The source of mentioned errors could be input data (components) and/or model structure which will impose meaningful uncertainty upon the model output. Present research investigates the effect of uncertainty of discharge-probability function on flood temporal and spatial risk assessment. The Monte Carlo method was engaged for uncertainty analysis and the Azaroud watershed in southern part of the Caspian Sea was selected as the case study. The study was based on temporal and physical loss functions of rice, while HEC-RAS provided the required hydraulic information. Combining loss functions and flood hydraulics in a GIS framework led to Agricultural Expected Annual Damage (AGEAD). Finally the uncertainty of discharge-probability function was introduced to AGEAD which caused it to increase from %1.8 to %1.9. Based on the achieved results, the contribution of probability-discharge function uncertainty in rising up the agricultural expected annual damage was 5.5 %.

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References

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Iran-Water Resources Research
Volume 12, Issue 2
September 2016
Pages 13-23

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History

  • Receive Date: 03 March 2016
  • Revise Date: 31 May 2016
  • Accept Date: 01 June 2016

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