Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Aquatic Habitat Suitability in Kordan River Case Study: Oxynemacheilus bergianus

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 M.Sc. student, Land Use Assessment and Planning Group, Energy and Environment Faculty, Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch, Iran

2 Associated Professor, Aquaculture Group, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Water Resources Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Climate change has significant impacts on living organisms and the environment. Therefore, it is important to predict and assess its impacts in order to reduce vulnerability and also to confront to climate change. Water resources will be the first resources to be affected by climate change and the rivers are considered as vital ecosystems in this situation. So assessing the impacts of the climate change on animal and plant species status in  the rivers can provide a projection of the ecosystem. This study attempted to evaluate the effect of climate change on one of the southern Alborz water systems, Kordan River, and to estimate the changes in the aquatic Habitat Suitability Index (HIS) along a two-kilometer reach of the river. In this regard the future climate change in the region was first projected using HadCM3 general circulation model in three 30-year periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2099 considering A2 and B1 scenarios. Also the SWAT model was used to simulate effects of climate change on the river flow and the water temperature. Results showed that the changes in temperature and precipitation would have a decreasing effect on the river flow and the water temperature during the future periods; the average flow would decrease from 3.3 cms in the base period to 2.66 and 2.8 cms in A2 and B1 scenarios, respectively. Also it is indicated that the climate change has a significant impact on habitat suitability index for Oxynemacheilus bergianus. Assessing the rational distribution curve would also declare a 20 to 25 decrease in the HSI equaling 0.4 to 0.6 in the period of 2071 to 2099.

Keywords

References

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  • Receive Date: 20 October 2014
  • Accept Date: 10 February 2015

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