ارزیابی پایداری سناریوهای عرضه و تقاضای آب در حوضه‌های آبریز با کاربرد مدل ‏IDS

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب/ دانشکده مهندسی عمران، پردیس دانشکده‌های

2 استاد/ دانشکده مهندسی عمران، پردیس دانشکده‌های فنی، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

امروزه مسئله مدیریت منابع آب در دریاچه ارومیه و احیای آن از بحث‌های مهم در کشور ایران می‌باشد. یکی از دلایل مهم در وضعیت نابسامان دریاچه عدم تخصیص مناسب حقابۀ بخش‌های مختلف از جمله تخصیص آب مورد نیاز دریاچه است. همچنین بررسی تبعات تخصیص آب بر دریاچه به بخش‌های مختلف همچون کشاورزی، محیط زیست، شرب و صنعت از موضوع مهمی است که باید مورد توجه قرار گیرد. در این تحقیق در نظر است ارزیابی کمّی این تبعات بر بخش‌های مختلف در یک دورۀ 60 ساله تحت دو سناریوی مدیریتی شامل تخصیص کامل و بخشی از نیاز آب دریاچه در قالب مفهوم پایداری انجام شود. بدین منظور، یک مدل تخصیص آب استفاده شد و شاخص‌های اعتمادپذیری، تاب‌آوری و آسیب‌پذیری ارزیابی شدند. در مرحله بعد، با استفاده از مفهوم نظریه استنتاج شهودی، پایداری سناریوهای مدیریت منابع آب در قالب تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره بررسی شد. نتایج نشان دادند که تأمین کامل حقابۀ دریاچه منجر به کاهش تخصیص آب به بخش کشاورزی شده است که ممکن است تبعات اجتماعی- فرهنگی- سیاسی مختلفی در بر داشته باشد. علی‌رغم کاهش حقابه بخش کشاورزی در سناریوی تخصیص کامل نیاز آب دریاچه، این سناریو به عنوان سناریوی برتر انتخاب شد. همچنین، نتایج این تحقیق نشان دادند تأمین کامل نیاز آب دریاچه در اولویت می‌باشد که منجر به پایداری بیشتر حوضۀ آبریز شده است. این در حالی است که بخش کشاورزی با کاهش تخصیص آب مواجه شده است. در نهایت توصیه می‌شود تا در تحقیقات آتی وضعیت پایداری کشاورزی نیز با اجرای سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی مورد ارزیابی قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sustainability Assessment of Basin-wide Water Supply and Demand Scenarios using Intelligent Decision ‎System (IDS) Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Massoud Behboodian 1
  • Reza Kerachian 2
1 Research Associate, School of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, School of Civil Engineering and Center of Excellence for Engineering and Management of Civil Infrastructures, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran,
چکیده [English]

Nowadays, water resources management in Lake Urmia and its restoration is one of the most important issues in Iran. One of the important reasons for the critical situation of the Lake Urmia basin is the lack of proper allocation of different parts (i.e. the required water for Lake Urmia). It is also important to consider the implications of lake water allocation to agricultural, environmental, potable, and industrial demand nodes. This paper intends to quantitatively evaluate these effects on different parts over 60 years under two management scenarios including full and partial allocation of Lake Urmia water requirement in the context of sustainability. For this purpose, three performance criteria such as reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability were evaluated in Lake Urmia basin. In the next step, using the concept of Evidential Reasoning (ER) approach, the sustainability of water resource management scenarios was investigated. The results showed that full allocation of the Lake Urmia water requirement resulted in reduced water allocation to the agricultural sector which may have different socio-cultural-political consequences. In spite of decline of water allocation in the agricultural sector in the first scenario (full allocation of Lake Urmia water requirement), this scenario was chosen as the top scenario. Also, the results of this paper indicate that the full allocation of Urmia Lake water requirement is a priority, which has led to the greater general sustainability of the Urmia Lake basin. Finally, it is suggested to further evaluate the sustainability of the agricultural sector by implementing different management scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water allocation
  • Lake Urmia
  • Sustainability
  • Intelligent decision system model
  • Water supply and demand scenarios
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