ارزیابی سیاست‌های مدیریتی حفظ همزمان منابع آب زیرزمینی و معیشت کشاورزان با استفاده از پویایی سیستم و نظریه بازی‌ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه مهندسی علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده فنی مهندسی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران

2 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی

3 دانشیار گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه بین المللی امام خمینی( ره )، قزوین، ایران

4 استاد دانشکده مهندسی عمران و پژوهشکده محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

 
بحران آب ناشی از رشد سریع جمعیت، توسعه اقتصادی نامتوازن، تغییر اقلیم و همچنین مدیریت ناکارآمد منابع آب مهم­ترین تهدید در قرن حاضر شناخته ‌شده است. منابع آب زیرزمینی به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین منابع آب در دسترس، در سال­های اخیر با چالش­های زیادی مواجه شده است، به‌گونه‌ای که از 609 دشت کشور، 404 دشت به عنوان دشت ممنوعه اعلام ‌شده است. بخش کشاورزی به عنوان مهم­ترین مصرف­کننده منابع آب دشت­ها، نقش زیادی در شکل‌گیری این بحران داشته است. در این تحقیق نقش محصولات زراعی غیر استراتژیک مختلف در افت سطح آبخوان و همچنین بر درآمد کشاورزان در دراز مدت با استفاده از مدل سیستم دینامیک بررسی شده است. آبخوان دشت قزوین که از سال 1342 به عنوان دشت ممنوعه اعلام شده است به عنوان مطالعه موردی انتخاب شد. بدین منظور بعد از جمع‌آوری سری زمانی داده­ها و رفع نقایص آن، مدل شبیه‌سازی 15 ساله علت و معلولی با استفاده از نرم‏افزار Vensim PLE توسعه یافت و با استفاده از الگوریتم ژنتیک کالیبره گردید. نتایج نشان داد آب انتقالی از سد طالقان به دشت قزوین باعث کاهش مقدار افت سطح آبخوان در طول 15 سال به‌اندازه 10 متر شده است. حساسیت سطح ایستابی و درآمد خالص کشاورزان به تغییرات سطح زیر کشت 17 محصول در دشت قزوین بررسی گردید و نتایج نشان داد درآمد کشاورزان بیشترین حساسیت را به کشت انگور با ردپای بالای اقتصادی دارد و از طرف دیگر سطح ایستابی نیز بیشترین حساسیت را به کشت محصول گندم دارد. در ادامه اثرات حذف برخی محصولات زارعی با نیاز آبی بالا و غیراستراتژیک از الگوی کشت بر درآمد کشاورزان و سطح ایستابی ارزیابی گردید. نتایج نشان می­دهد سناریو عدم کشت محصولات زراعی غیراستراتژیک به‌عنوان سناریوی تعادلی توسط هر چهار روش حل اختلاف در حالت متقارن انتخاب گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of management policies to simultaneously maintain groundwater resources and farmers' livelihoods Using the System dynamics and Game Theory

نویسندگان [English]

  • Masoumeh Hashemi 1
  • hamed mazandarani zadeh 2
  • Peyman Daneshkare Arasteh 3
  • mahdi zarghami 4
1 Ph. D candidate of Water Sciences and Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
2 Assistant professor, Water science and eng. group, IKIU,
3 Associate Professor of Water Sciences and Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
4 Professor of Faculty of Civil Engineering and Institute of Environment, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

The water crisis caused by rapid population growth, unbalanced economic development, climate change, and inefficient water resources management is recognized as the most significant threat in recent century. Groundwater resources, one of the most important available water resources, have faced many challenges in recent years as 404 out of 609 plains have been declared. The agricultural sector, as the main consumer of groundwater, has played a major role in creating this crisis. In the research, the impacts of different non-strategic crops on groundwater level and farmers’ income have been investigated using long term system dynamics. The Qazvin Aquifer, which has been declared a prohibited plain since 1962, was picked as a case study. After collecting time series data and preparing it, the 15- year causality model was built up using VENSIMPLE software, which calibrated using a genetic algorithm. The results showed that the transfer of water from Taleghan dam to Qazvin Plain helped to reduce ten meters of drawdown during a 15- year period. The impact of 17 different crops on groundwater level and farmers’ net income were researched for Qazvin Plain. The results showed that farmers’ income is most impacted by the grape crop with a high economic water footprint, while groundwater level is most affected by the wheat crop. Next, the influence of the removal of non-strategic crops with high water requirement was evaluated in the plain. The results showed that removing non-strategic crops is selected as optimal scenario by applying four conflict resolution methods in symmetric conflicts.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Groundwater Drawdown
  • Farmers' Income
  • Qazvin Plain Aquaculture
  • Dynamic system
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