ارزیابی عملکرد مدل های رگرسیونی پانلی در برآورد رابطه بین آب و ارزش افزوده کشاورزی کشورهای حوضه رودخانه مرزی ارس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دوره دکتری /رشته مدیریت منابع آب دانشگاه تبریز

2 استاد / دانشکده مهندسی عمران و پژوهشکده محیط زیست دانشگاه تبریز

3 دانشیار /دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

کشورهای حاشیه رودخانه های مرزی همواره در استفاده از منبع آب مشترک به رقابت پرداخته اند. تعداد، موقعیت قرارگیری ازلحاظ بالادستی و پایین دستی و عملکرد اقتصادی هر یک از کشورها بر پیچیدگی های مسائل آب‌های مشترک مرزی افزوده است. از این‌رو تحلیل عملکرد اقتصادی کشورها، کمک شایانی در مطالعات آتی خواهد داشت. در تحقیق حاضر با انتخاب رودخانه ارس به‌عنوان یک رود مرزی مشترک بین کشورهای ایران، ترکیه، ارمنستان و آذربایجان، ابتدا مرز حوضه آبریز در محل اتصال به رودخانه کورا با استفاده از نقشه رقومی ارتفاعی با اندازه سلولی 30 متر استخراج و سپس به 10 زیرحوضه با برآورد خصوصیات فیزیوگرافی ازنظر شیب، مساحت و ارتفاع تقسیم بندی شد. با استفاده از داده های بارش ایستگاه های سینوپتیک و رواناب سطحی مشاهداتی ایستگاه های هیدرومتری، پتانسیل آب سطحی تولیدی سالانه هر یک از زیرحوضه ها برآورد گردید. سپس ارتباط بین ارزش‌افزوده سالانه بخش کشاورزی به‌عنوان متغیر وابسته با مقادیر سالانه آب قابل‌دسترس، میزان نیروی کار و سرمایه هر یک از کشورها به‌عنوان متغیرهای مستقل، با استفاده از مدل های رگرسیون به‌ظاهر نامرتبط و رگرسیون داده های پانلی برآورد گردید. بررسی نتایج نشان داد در تحقیق حاضر مدل رگرسیون با اثرات ثابت بهترین مدل ازنظر آماری است و می تواند ناهمگنی مقطعی در حوضه را تا 73 درصد تغییرات ارزش‌افزوده توجیه نماید. علاوه بر آن معنی دار بودن ضریب جمله توان دوم آب ازلحاظ آماری، تأکید بر وجود ارتباط غیرخطی مابین آب و ارزش‌افزوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of Panel Regression Models in Estimating the Relationship between Water and Countries' Agricultural Added Value in the Aras River Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mahmood Rashidi 1
  • Mahdi Zarghaami 2
  • Esmaeil Pishbahar 3
1 Civil Engineering Faculty of Tabriz University
2 Professor at the Faculty of Civil Eng and the Institute of Environment, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, 51666 Iran
3 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Countries in trans-boundary river basin have always been competing in use of common water source. The geographical location and the number of countries included as well as economic performance of these countries escalate the complexities of shared waters. Therefore, proper analysis of the economic performance of neighboring countries will assist future studies. In this research, Aras River between Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Azerbaijan is chosen. First, the basin is extracted using 30 meters cell size Digital Elevation Model in ArcMap and then it is divided into 10 sub-basins to obtain physiographic properties in terms of average slope, average height and area. Using rainfall data of synoptic stations and surface runoff of hydrometric stations, average annual stream-flow of each sub-basin is estimated. Then, Seemingly Unrelated Regression model as well as Panel Data regression model are used to model the relationship between annual added value data of agricultural sector as dependent variable on available annual water, labor force and capital of each country. Statistical interpretation of the results from different models, proves that Fixed Effect model describes the relationship better and can explain the cross sectional heterogeneity up to 73 percent in added value. Moreover, squared water coefficient term, illustrates the nonlinear relationship between water and added value and is statistically significant.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Trans-boundary river basin
  • Added value
  • Seemingly Unrelated Regression
  • Panel data Regression
  • Cross sectional heterogeneity
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