چشم‌انداز پایداری تامین نیازهای شرب و کشاورزی سد دوستی تحت سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم و بهره‌برداری از سد سلما

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب/ دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران،

2 استادیار/ دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار/ دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

4 دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب/ دانشکده مهندسی عمران، آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

برنامه‌ریزی صحیح منابع آب در حوضه‌هی مرزی به دلیل فقدان یا عدم دسترسی به اطلاعات هواشناسی و هیدرولوژی کشورهی همسیه با سختی‌ روبروست. در ین مقاله با تلفیق مدل هیدرولوژیکی SWAT و مدل برنامه‌ریزی منابع آب WEAP سعی شده است تا به بررسی اثر توسعه بالادست و همچنین تغییر اقلیم برکاهش منابع آب ورودی از حوضه مرزی هریرود به کشورهی یران و ترکمنستان صورت پذیرد. سال‌هی 1955 تا 1996 بری دوره صحت‌سنجی و از سال 1997-2016 بری واسنجی مدل SWAT قرار داده شد. عدد R2 و NS بترتیب 66/0 و 65/0 بری دوره صحت‌سنجی و 7/0 و 72/0 بری دوره واسنجی به‌دست آمد. اغلب مناطق حوضه آبریز سد دوستی با افزیش دما (در حدود 5/1 تا 8/3 درجه) و کاهش بارش به‌ویژه در مناطق کوهستانی بالادست مواجه خواهد بود. بر اساس نتیج به دست آمده در صورت بهره‌برداری از سد سلما و اعمال سناریو تغییر اقلیم RCP8.5 اطمینان‌پذیری حجمی و پیداری تامین آب کشاورزی کشورهی یران و ترکمنستان به کم‌تر از 3 درصد تقلیل می‌یابد. تغییر الگوی آب و هویی و احداث سد سلما تامین نیازهی زیست محیطی در پائین‌دست سد دوستی را با چالش جدی روبرو خواهد کرد. ین موضوع ضرورت برقراری دیپلماسی آب بین کشورهی یران، افغانستان و ترکمنستان را دوچندان می‌کند. در صورت ادامه روند فعلی جالشهای جدی اجتماعی در دشت سرخس ناشی از عدم امکان تامین آب ایجاد خواهد شد. همچنین برای تامین آب شرب مشهد می‌بایستی منابع تامین با اطمینان پذیری بیشتر شناسایی شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sustainability Outlook of Domestic and Agricultural Demand of Dusti Dam Considering Climate change Scenarios and Impact of Salma Dam

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hasan Nazari Mejdar 1
  • Ali Moridi 2
  • Jafar Yazdi 3
  • Ahmad KhazaiePoul 4
1 MSC student, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran Iran,
2 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti UniversityTehran, Iran,
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran,
4 PhD student, Faculty of Civil, Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran,
چکیده [English]

The planning and management of water resources in the transboundary basin because of missing or lack of access to weather information and hydrology in the riparian countries is difficult. In this paper, by coupling the SWAT hydrologic model and WEAP water resource planning and management model, we have tried to study the effect of upstream development as well as climate change on water inputs from the Harirud Transboundary River to Iran and Turkmenistan. The years 1955 to 1996 considered for calibration and the period from 1997 to 2016 to validate the SWAT model. The R2 and NS numbers were 0.66 and 0.65 for the calibration period, 0.7, and 0.72 for the calibration period, respectively. Most areas of the Dusti basin will face a rise in temperature (about 1.5 to 3.8 degrees) and precipitation decline, especially in upstream mountainous areas. Based on the results of the operation of the Salma Dam and RCP 8.5 climate change scenario, the reliability and sustainability of agricultural water supply in Iran and Turkmenistan will be reduced to less than 3%. Changing the climate pattern will face the challenge of meeting the environmental needs of downstream of Dusti and Salma dams. This trouble reveals the necessity of hydro policy between the riparian countries. If the current condition continues in this way water shortage in Sarakhs become the main social challenge at the northeast of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Dusti river basin
  • Transboundary River
  • climate change
  • SWAT-WEAP coupling
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