مدیریت آب های زیرزمینی دشت اردبیل با استفاده از مدل سازی عامل بنیان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی آب/ دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران.

2 استاد / گروه مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران.

3 همکار علمی، انستیتو آب کلرادو/ فورت کالینز، کلرادو، آمریکا.

4 دانشیار / گروه علوم زمین، دانشکده علوم طبیعی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران.

چکیده

تعاملات اجتماعی-هیدرولوژیکی یکی از الزامات مهم برای مدیریت منابع آب در مناطق تحت تنش آبی است. آبخوان اردبیل یکی از آبخوان‌های ممنوعه تحت فعالیت‌های شدید رو به رشد است. سطح آب زیرزمینی در این آبخوان به طور چشمگیری کاهش یافته است و این منطقه را به سوی یک فاجعه‌ی محیط زیستی هدایت می‌کند. در این مطالعه، یک مدل شبیه‌سازی-بهینه‌سازی برای حل مشکل آب زیرزمینی اردبیل توسعه داده شده است که تغییرات تراز آب زیرزمینی را شبیه‌سازی و مقادیر بهینه برای استخراج آب را تعیین می‌کند. این مدل‌ها به وسیله‌ی یک روش جدید توسعه داده شده در MATLAB به هم متصل شده‌اند که امکان دسترسی به بسته‌های مختلفMODFLOW را فراهم کرده و برای اجرای مکرر مدل‌ها حافظه‌ کمتری را اشغال می‌کند. مدل شبیه‌سازی-بهینه‌سازی به منظور شبیه‌سازی رفتار و تعامل ذینفعان به یک مدل عامل بنیان متصل شده است. به همین منظور ابتدا ذینفعان کلیدی و مطلوبیت هر یک از آن‌ها تعیین شده است. سپس الگوریتم بهینه‌سازی ازدحام ذرات به منظور برآورد مقادیر برداشت آب، استفاده و در مرحله بعد با استفاده از روش برنامه‌ریزی سازشی بهترین گزینه از میان مجموعه جواب‌ها با لحاظ دید کارشناسی انتخاب شده است. در نهایت، مدل عامل بنیان با در نظر گرفتن تنش‌های اجتماعی و قوانین مدیریتی (تشویقی و جریمه‌ای) مقادیر برداشت نهایی را فراهم کرده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که تقاضای آب زیرزمینی در مقایسه با مقدار اولیه به میزان 22 درصد کاهش یافته است. این میزان کاهش تقاضا باعث افزایش 90 سانتی متری سطح آب زیرزمینی به طور متوسط برای کل دشت شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Groundwater Management in Ardabil Plain Using Agent-Based Modeling

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeid Najjar Ghabel 1
  • Mahdi Zarghami 2
  • Masih Akhbari 3
  • Ata Allah Nadiri 4
1 M.Sc. Graduated of Water Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran. Email: mzarghami@tabrizu.ac.ir
3 Visiting Scholar, Colorado Water Institute, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
4 Associate Professor, Department of Earth Science, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Modeling socio-hydrological interactions are one of the essential requirements for water resources management in water-stressed areas. The Ardabil aquifer (Northwestern Iran) is one of the restricted aquifers under intense development activities. The water table is dramatically declining and leading the area to an environmental disaster. In this study, a simulation-optimization model has been developed for solving the Ardabil groundwater problem, which simulates groundwater level changes and determines the optimal water exploitation values. These models have been linked by a new method in the MATLAB which provides access to various MODFLOW packages and takes up less memory. The simulation-optimization model has been then linked to an agent-based model, which simulates agents’ behavior and their interactions. For this purpose, firstly the key agents and their desirability have been determined. Then, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to estimate the agents’ desired groundwater exploitation values. In the next step, the best solution using the compromised programming method is selected according to the experts' point of view. Finally, the agent-based model provided the final exploitation values, taking into account social pressure and management rules (incentive and penalties). The results show that groundwater demand is reduced up to 22% in comparison to the initial value. This demand reduction resulted in 90 cm of the increase in the groundwater level for the entire plain.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agent-Based modeling
  • Groundwater modeling
  • Optimization model
  • Compromising Programming
  • Ardabil plain Aquifer
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