ارزیابی کارائی منابع بارشی بازتحلیل شده و مبتنی بر تکنیکهای سنجش از دور جهت مدلسازی هیدرولوژیکی با استفاده از مدل بزرگ مقیاس VIC-3L

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب/ دانشگاه بین المللی خمینی (ره)، قزوین

2 عضو هئیت علمی گروه مهندسی آب / دانشگاه بین المللی خمینی (ره)، قزوین

3 پژوشگر / موسسه تحقیقات ژئو هیدرولوژی IRPI و عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه پروجا

چکیده

باتوجه به گسترش روز افزون تکنولوژی‌های ماهواره‌ای و قدرت محاسبات رایانه‌ای، پایگاه‌های بارشی با توان تفکیک زمانی و مکانی مختلفی ایجاد شده است که بر خلاف ایستگاه‌های زمینی دارای پوشش مکانی بسیار زیادی می‌باشند. پژوهش حاضر با هدف ارزیابی کارائی پایگاه‌‌های بارشی باز تحلیل شده ECMWF و PERSIAN جهت مدلسازی هیدرولوژیکی با استفاده از مدل بزرگ مقیاس VIC-3L در حوضه آبریز سفیدرود پرداخته شده است. نتایج حاصل از ارزیابی آماری حاکی از آن است که در مقیاس زمانی روزانه پایگاه ECMWF با دارا بودن ضریب همبستگی معادل 83/0 با داده-های زمینی از عملکرد بسیار بهتری نسبت به پایگاه PERSIAN برخوردار می‌باشد. هرچند در مقیاس زمانی ماهانه هر دو پایگاه بارشی مذکور دارای عملکرد تقریباً مشابهی می‌باشند و در بیشتر بخش‌های حوضه دارای ضریب همبستگی بالای 8/0 با داده‌های زمینی هستند. همچنین نتایج حاصل از اجرای مدل هیدرولوژیکی نشان داد که علی‌رغم پائین بودن توان پایگاه PERSIAN در تخمین بارش در سطح حوضه، عملکرد آن در شبیه‌سازی هیدروگراف جریان خروجی از حوضه در هر دو مقیاس زمانی روزانه و ماهانه نسبت به پایگاه ECMWF بسیار بهتر می‌باشد. به عنوان مثال، ضریب کارائی نش-ساتکلیف (NS) بدست آمده در دو مقیاس زمانی روزانه و ماهانه در صورت استفاده از داده‌های PERSIAN به ترتیب در حدود 80/0 و 88/0 می‌باشد و این در حالیست که در صورت استفاده از داده‌های ECMWF مقادیر مذکور به ترتیب معادل 67/0 و 72/0 خواهد بود. همچنین در صورت استفاده از داده‌های PERSIAN میزان خطای مدل هیدرولوژیکی در برآورد دبی‌های اوج هیدروگراف جریان تا مقدار زیادی کاهش می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluating the Efficiency of Reanalysis and Remote-Sensing based Rainfall Data sets for Hydrological Modeling Using VIC-3L Large Scale Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Afshin Shayeghi 1
  • Asghar Azizian 2
  • Luca Brocca 3
1 MSc in Water Resources Engineering, Water engineering Dept., Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Water engineering Dept., Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
3 Researcher, Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection IRPI, Perugia, Italy
چکیده [English]

Currently, in most of the catchments, the lack of ground-based gauges is one of the most important problems for accurate hydrological modeling. According to the quick developments of satellite-based technologies and the computer’s computational power, several rainfall datasets have been developed with different spatial and temporal resolutions. These datasets usually are based on remote-sensing techniques or the combination of land surface models (LSMs) and general circulation models (GCMs). This research addressed the efficiency of ECMWF reanalysis dataset and PERSIAN for hydrological modeling using VIC-3L large-scale model over the SefidRood catchment. The results of statistical analyses at daily time scale indicated that the correlation coefficient (CC) between ECMWF, PERSIAN, and ground-observed dataset is about 0.83 and 0.48, respectively. In addition, at monthly time scale, the performances of both rainfall datasets approximately are the same and in most parts of the catchment, the value of CC is higher than 0.80. Hydrological analyses by VIC-3L model showed that despite having low efficiency in estimating rainfall, the PERSIAN dataset led to better simulation of runoff when it compared to ECMWF. For example, the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient between daily and monthly simulated runoff using PERSIAN and observed runoff at the outlet of SefidRood catchment are about 0.80 and 0.88, respectively, while in the case of ECMWF these coefficients are about 0.67 and 0.72. Moreover, by using the PERSIAN dataset, the performance of the VIC model in simulating daily and monthly peak flows significantly increases.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall
  • Remote-Sensing Technique
  • hydrological modeling
  • VIC-3L
  • runoff
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