کاربرد رویکردهای شبیه‌سازی- بهینه‌سازی جهت ارزیابی گزینه‌های مختلف اقلیمی و مدیریتی در یک سامانه منابع آب

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش اموخته کارشناسی ارشد / مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته

2 استادیار/ گروه اکولوژی، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته

3 استاد / مدعو گروه مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته

چکیده

تخصیص بهینه منابع آب جهت مدیریت عرضه و تقاضا و بررسی تاثیر پدیده تغییر اقلیم بر سامانه‌های آبی امری ضروریست. هدف تحقیق، شبیه-سازی و بهینه‌سازی مولفه‌های سامانه آبی اهرچای تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم و ارزیابی سناریوهای مختلف اقلیمی و مدیریتی جهت تصمیم‌گیری است. ابتدا اثر تغییر اقلیم بر متغیرهای هواشناسی با مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو (GCMs) تحت سناریوهای A1B، A2 و B1 بررسی می‌گردد. نتایج این مدل تحت سناریوهای نامبرده برای سال‌های 2030-2011 حاکی از کاهش بارندگی و افزایش دما می‌باشد. برای برآورد جریان ورودی به مخزن طی سال‌های 2025-2015 از مدل شبیه‌ساز بارش-رواناب HACRES استفاده گردیدکه با داشتن R2 و RMSE برابر با 65/0 و 12/1 در مرحله واسنجی و 56/0 و 4/1 برای صحت‌سنجی، عملکرد قابل قبولی داشته‌اند. برای تخمین نیاز آبی محصولات در دوره تغییر اقلیم از مدل CropWat استفاده شد. برای اعمال مدیریت تقاضای کشاورزی، تخصیص بهینه منابع آب و خاک با زیر مدلهایی از نوع برنامه‌ریزی خطی و غیر خطی (LP, NLP) به نحوی انجام شد که مراحل رشد گیاهان و حساسیت آنا به تنش‌های آبی لحاظ شود. تغییرات بیلان آبی مخزن جهت تخصیص در گره‌های مصرف با مدل WEAP، بررسی شد. برای شناسایی آثار تغییر اقلیم و پاسخ سیستم به تغییرات عرضه و تقاضا، سناریوهای گوناگون اقلیمی و مدیریتی تعریف گردید، با اعمال وزن‌های حاصل از مدل AHP و مقادیر شاخص پایداری برای سناریوها، استفاده از سطوح کشت بهینه، روش آبیاری نوین و کاهش مصرف سرانه شرب به عنوان بهترین گزینه مدیریتی معرفی شد که بیشترین مقدار اعتمادپذیری کمی و زمانی را بهمراه داشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Application of Simulation-Optimization Approaches to Assess the Effect of Climate and Management Scenarios on in Water Resource System

نویسندگان [English]

  • S. zeinoddini 1
  • S. Anvari 2
  • Z. Zahmatkesh 3
1 MSc Graduate in Engineering and Water Resources Management, Graduate University of Advanced Technology.
2 Assistant Prof. Department of Ecology, Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Science, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran,
3 Visiting Professor at deprtment of Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineer, Graduate University of Advanced Technology.
چکیده [English]

Optimal allocation of water resources for supply and demand management with respect to climate change effects on water systems is essential. The purpose of this study is to simulate and optimize various components of َاAharchay water system under climate change conditions and evaluate different climate and management scenarios.The effect of climate change on weather variables is investigated using the outputs of GCMs under A1B, A2 and B1 scenarios. Results for the period of 2011-2030 showed the decrease of rainfall and an increase of minimum and maximum temperatures for the study area. For estimation of the inflow to the reservoir during 2015-2025 years, the IHACRES model is used. Results for R2 and RMSE criteria were equaling to 0.65 and 1.21 for calibration and 0.56 and 1.4 for validation phases. Moreover, to estimate the water requirement under climate change impacts, evapotranspiration (ET) is calculated by CropWat model. For demand management in agricultural sector, optimization of soil and water allocation was carried out through linear and non-linear programming models (LP, NLP) considering plants’ growth stage and their sensitivity to water stress. Water balance in reservoir was simulated by WEAP under climate change scenarios to allocate water at demand nodes. Considering the climate and management scenarios, the best option was identified by AHP and its associated weights are then calculated. Resalts demonstrated the use of optimal cultivating levels, new irrigation method and reducing per capita drinking water was selected as the best management scenario with the highest values of temporal and spatial reliability.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water requirement
  • Rainfall-Runoff
  • IHACRES
  • CropWat
  • WEAP

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