مقایسه بارش بهاری حاصل از چهار محصول شبکه‌بندی شده و شبیه‌سازی شده توسط RegCM و ارزیابی آنها با مشاهدات در دشت قزوین

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای / هواشناسی کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

2 دانشیار/ گروه فیزیک فضا، موسسه ژئوفیزیک، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار/ گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه گیلان، رشت، ایران.

4 دانشیار/ پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی، گروه مهندسی آبیاری و آبادانی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

چکیده

بارش مؤلفه‌ اصلی چرخه هیدرولوژیکی و داده واداشتی مهمی برای مدل‌های هیدرولوژی و کشاورزی است. تلاش‌های بسیاری در تولید محصولات شبکه‌بندی شده بارش با هدف افزایش دسترسی به پایگاه‌های بارش در تفکیک‌های مکانی و زمانی مختلف در مقیاس جهانی صورت گرفته است. در این مطالعه عملکرد چهار محصول مختلف با تفکیک مکانی بالا، شامل برونداد PERSIANN-CCS، CFSR، CHIRPS و AgMERRA و همچنین شبیه‌سازی‌های بارش روزانه توسط مدل اقلیمی RegCM در فصل بهار با استفاده از داده‌های مشاهداتی در دشت قزوین در سال‌های 2003 تا 2010 و با استفاده از شاخص‌های آماری پیوسته و طبقه‌بندی مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است. بررسی آماری نتایج مدل اقلیمی منطقه‌ای با استفاده از سه طرحواره بارش همرفتی (کو، امانوئل و گرل) نشان داد که طرحواره کو مناسب‌ترین طرحواره در مدل‌سازی بارش بهاره در منطقه می‌باشد. نتایج بررسی شاخص‌های آماری پیوسته حاکی از برتری نسبی پایگاه AgMERRA نسبت به سایر محصولات و مدل RegCM بود. شاخص‌های آماری طبقه‌بندی نشان دادند که پایگاه بارش CFSR عملکرد بهتری در آشکارسازی روزهای بارانی داشته، اما پایگاه AgMERRA در شناسایی روزهای غیربارانی و تفکیک روزهای بارانی و غیربارانی موفق‌تر بوده است. به‌طور کلی نتایج نشان داد که در منطقه مورد مطالعه پایگاه AgMERRA در مقیاس روزانه در مقطع زمانی مورد نظر، از اعتبار بیشتری برخوردار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of Spring Season Precipitation Derived from Four Gridded Datasets and Simulated by RegCM and Their Evaluation Against Observations in Ghazvin Plai

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Eghtedari 1
  • P. Irannejad 2
  • Majid Vazifedoust 3
  • J. Bazrafshan 4
  • N. Ghahreman 4
1 Ph.D. Student in Agrometeorology, Agriculture & Natural Resources College, Irrigation & Reclamation Department, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Space Physics Faculty, Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Faculty, Guilan University, Rasht, Iran.
4 Associate Professor, Agriculture & Natural Resources College, Irrigation & Reclamation Department, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrological cycle and is a crucial forcing data for hydrological and agricultural models. Great efforts have been made to generate gridded precipitation products, thereby leading to the increased availability of precipitation datasets at different spatial and temporal resolutions over the globe. This study provides an intercomparison of daily precipitation of four high spatial resolution gridded precipitation products (PERSIANN-CCS, CHIRPS, CFSR and AgMERRA) and that simulated by RegCM4 model and their evaluation against observational data over eight spring seasons (2003-2010) in the Qazvin Plain. Statistical evaluation of three convective precipitation schemes (Ku, Emanuel, and Grell) coupled in RegCm4 showed that Ku is the best scheme for spring precipitation modeling in the region. Based on continuous statistical indices, AgMERRA shows relative superiority to other products and RegCM. Categorical statisticsal indices indicated that CFSR performs better in detecting rainy days, but AgMERRA in detecting the non-rainy days and determining rainy and non-rainy days. Results showed that compared to other precipitation products, AgMERRA, in general, is closer to the observed daily precipitation during the spring over the Ghazvin Plain.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Daily precipitation
  • Ghazvin plain
  • Climate model
  • Global datasets
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