مدیریت تخصیص منابع آب در حوضة آبخیز حبله‌رود با ترکیب مدل‌های SWAT و WEAP

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه گیلان

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشگاه گیلان

چکیده

در این مطالعه از ترکیب دو مدل SWAT و WEAP به‌منظور برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت یکپارچة تخصیص منابع آب در حوضه آبخیز حبله‌رود استفاده شده است. مدل SWAT در دورة آماری 2012-1998 با استفاده از داده‌های آبدهی ماهانه در خروجی حوضه، واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی شد. مقادیر ضریب تبیین (R2)، ضریب کارآیی نش- ساتکلیف (NS)، جذر میانگین مربعات خطا (RMSE) و کارآیی مدل (ME) در مرحلة اعتبارسنجی به‌‌ترتیب برابر با 8/0، 71/0، 81/1 و 89/0 به‌دست آمدند. با توجه به این مقادیر، عملکرد مدل SWAT را می‌توان در طبقه‌بندی "خوب" قرار داد. سپس برای شبیه‌سازی منابع و مصارف حوضه و ارزیابی سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی، آبدهی برآوردشده با استفاده از مدل SWAT برای هر یک از زیرحوضه‌ها، وارد مدل WEAP شد و درصد تأمین نیاز برای هر یک از گره‌ها در شرایط موجود (سناریوی مرجع) حاصل شد. نتایج نشان داد اراضی کشاورزیِ محدودة فیروزکوه و اراضیِ شبکة آبیاری و زهکشی گرمسار با بحران کمبود آب به‌ویژه در ماه‌های گرم سال مواجه هستند. بنابراین سناریوهایی مانند تغییر الگوی کشت، کاهش سطح زیر کشت، کاهش سرانة مصرف آب در گره‌های نیاز شهری و روستایی، افزایش راندمان آبیاری و سناریوهای ترکیبی، برای به تعادل رساندن عرضه و تقاضای آب در نظر گرفته شد. نتایج نشان داد با به‌کارگیری هم‌زمان راهبردهای مختلف مدیریت مصرف آب (افزایش راندمان آبیاری، کاهش سرانة مصرف و تغییر الگوی کشت)، بهتر از حالت استفادة منفرد از هر کدام از سناریوها می‌توان برداشت آب از منابع مختلف را کاهش داد و به تعادل در عرضه و تقاضای آب در حوضه دست یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Water Resources Allocation Management in the Hablehroud Basin Using a Combination of the SWAT and WEAP Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • Jaber Salehpoor 1
  • Afshin Ashrafzadeh 2
  • Seyed Ali Moussavi 2
1 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan
2 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan
چکیده [English]

In this study, a combination of the SWAT and WEAP models were utilized for planning and integrated water resources allocation management in the Hablehroud Basin. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using the monthly discharge at the basin outlet in the period of 1998-2012. The coefficient of determination, the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient, root mean square error, and model efficiency, in validation phase were calculated 0.80, 0.71, 1.81 and 0.89, respectively. These values suggest that the model performance can be classified as “good”. To simulate the supply and demand in the basin and to assess different management scenarios, the estimated flows produced by SWAT for each subbasin were considered as the input for the WEAP model and the percentage of met demand in the present situation (Reference scenario) for each demand node was obtained. The results showed that the agricultural lands of Firoozkouh and Garmsar irrigation and drainage network are facing a shortage of water, especially in the warm months of the year. Therefore, scenarios such as changing cropping pattern, reducing crop area, reducing water per capita in urban and rural demand nodes, increasing irrigation efficiency and combined scenarios were considered to balance the supply and demand of water. The results showed that water consumption reduction and striking a balance between the supply and demand in the basin can be better achieved if simultaneous use of different water management strategies (increasing irrigation efficiency, per capita reduction, and crop pattern change) are to be considered in the basin.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydrologic Modeling
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Integrated Management
  • Water allocation

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