شبیه سازی هیدرولوژیکی بارش-رواناب با استفاده از الگوریتم های بارش ماهواره ای اصلاح شده، مطالعه موردی: حوضه سد وشمگیر، گلستان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد عمران آب، دانشکده فنی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد اسلامشهر

2 Islamic Azad University

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی عمران و رییس مرکز تحقیقات علوم زیست محیطی، واحد اسلامشهر دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی

چکیده

این مطالعه به ارزیابی پتانسیل اطلاعات بارش ماهواره ای برای توسعه مدل معتبر بارش-رواناب جهت تولید اطلاعات هشدار سیلاب در حوضه سد وشمگیر در ایران می پردازد. دو محصول بارش ماهواره ای (TRMM و PERSIANN) مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفتند تا مشخص شود که کدام محصول الگوی بارش واقعی و شدت آن را در حوضه بهتر نشان می دهد. بعد از انجام ارزیابی بر پایه پارامترهای آماری همچون RMSE، MAE، MBE و R2 تخمین های TRMM برای شبیه سازی بارش-رواناب انتخاب شد. در میان شش سال حاوی اطلاعات دبی (2002 تا 2007)، بازه 2002 تا 2004 برای واسنجی و بازه 2005 تا 2007 برای صحت سنجی استفاده شد. علاوه بر توسعه مدل روزانه بارش-رواناب در HEC-HMS، مدلی بر پایه رخداد نیز توسعه یافت. همچنین شبیه سازی بر اساس اطلاعات روزانه TRMM در مقابل اطلاعات 3 ساعته آن نیز مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت تا بتوان تأثیر گام های زمانی در نتایج را نیز مورد ارزیابی قرار داد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل تلفات deficit constant در بازه واسنجی (NSE= 0.413 ,R2=0.482, RVE= -0.246 %) و بازه صحت سنجی (NSE= 0.621 ,R2=0.670, RVE= -0.329 %) مقدار رواناب و همچنین مقدار دبی روزانه حداکثر را بهتر تخمین می زند. همچنین مدل کاربردی مقیاس های ماهانه و بزرگتر را بهتر از مقیاس روزانه تخمین خواهد زد. به علاوه مدل کاربردی HEC-HMS بر پایه رخداد در گام های زمانی سه ساعته دبی حداکثر را بهتر تخمین می زند. این مطالعه بیانگر مناسب بودن مدل HEC-HMS برای شبیه سازی رواناب پیوسته در حوضه های پیچیده می باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Rainfall-Runoff Hydrologic Simulation Using Adjusted Satellite Rainfall Algorithms, a Case Study: Voshmgir Dam Basin. Golestan

نویسندگان [English]

  • Peiman Parisuj 1
  • Hamid Goharnejad 2
  • saber moazami 3
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Environmental Sciences Research Center, Islamshahr
2 Islamic Azad University
3 Department of Civil Engineering, Islamshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University
چکیده [English]

In this study two satellite based rainfall estimates (TRMM and PERSIANN) were assessed to evaluate which rainfall product represents better the actual rainfall pattern and intensity of the basin. After evaluation based on statistical parameters such as the: Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Average Error (MAE), Mean Bias Error (MBE) and Correlation coefficient (R2), TRMM were selected for rainfall-runoff simulations. Among six years of available discharge data from 2002 to 2007, period of 2002 to 2004 was used for calibration whereas data from 2005-2007 were used for validation. In additional to continuous daily rainfall-runoff model development using HEC-HMS, an event based flood model was also developed. Also simulations based on daily TRMM versus 3-hourly TRMM were compared to evaluate effect of input time-step on the results. Results showed that the deficit constant loss method successfully predicted gauged catchment runoff and peak flows for the calibration (NSE= 0.413, R2=0.482, RVE= -0.246 %) and validation (NSE= 0.621, R2=0.670, RVE= -0.329 %) periods. Also developed model estimates monthly or longer time scale rainfall-runoff process better than daily scale. In addition, the event based HEC-HMS model developed using TRMM data with shorter time steps (3-hourly) showed good capability to simulate daily peak discharges. The study demonstrates the suitability of HEC-HMS for continuous runoff simulation in a complex watershed. Therefore, this work will have a significant contribution for the future development of water resources programs in this catchment in particular and in other data-scarce catchments.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "GIS"
  • "TRMM
  • PERSIANN"
  • "Flood forecasting'
  • "Voshmgir Dam"

Agbonkhese O, Agbonkhese E G, Aka E O, Joe-Abaya J, Ocholi M, Adekunle A (2014) Flood menace in Nigeria: impacts, remedial and management strategies. Civil and Environmental Research 6(4):32-40

Ghafouri MR, Taheri Shahraiyni H, Saghafian B (2013) Modeling of continuous daily runoff of Karoon river   using SMA loss function. Iran-Water Resources Research 9( 2):73-77 (In Persian)

Anderson M, Chen ZQ, Kavvas M, Feldman A (2000) Coupling HEC-HMS with atmospheric models for the prediction of watershed runoff. Building Partnerships, pp. 1-10

Arabkhedri M, Lai F, Noor-Akma I, Mohamad-Roslan M (2010) An application of adaptive cluster sampling for estimating total suspended sediment load. Hydrology Research 41(1):63-73

Arias-Hidalgo M, Bhattacharya B, Mynett A, van Griensven A (2012) Experiences in using the TRMM data to complement rain gauge data in the Ecuadorian coastal foothills. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 9(11):12435-12461

Babatolu JS, Akinnubi RT, Folagimi AT, Bukola OO (2014) Variability and trends of daily heavy rainfall events over Niger River Basin development authority area in Nigeria. American Journal of Climate Change 3(01):1

Bates PD, De Roo A (2000) A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation. Journal of Hydrology 236(1):54-77

Burlando P, Rosso R, Cadavid LG, Salas JD (1993) Forecasting of short-term rainfall using ARMA models. Journal of Hydrology 144(1-4):193-211

Castronova AM, Goodall JL, Elag MM (2013) Models as web services using the open geospatial consortium (ogc) web processing service (wps) standard. Environmental Modelling & Software 41:72-83

Castronova AM, Goodall JL, Ercan MB (2013b) Integrated modeling within a hydrologic information system: an OpenMI based approach. Environmental Modelling & Software 39:263-273

Dube T, Gumindoga W, Chawira M (2014) Detection of land cover changes around Lake Mutirikwi, Zimbabwe, based on traditional remote sensing image classification techniques. African Journal of Aquatic Science 39(1):89-95

Fang N, Shi Z, Li L, Guo Z, Liu Q, Ai L  (2012) The effects of rainfall regimes and land use changes on runoff and soil loss in a small mountainous watershed. Catena 99:1-8

Fotopoulos F, Makropoulos C, Mimikou M (2010) Flood forecasting in transboundary catchments using the Open Modeling Interface. Environmental Modelling and Software 25(12):1640-1649

Gichamo TZ, Popescu I, Jonoski A, Solomatine D (2012) River cross-section extraction from the ASTER global DEM for flood modeling. Environmental Modelling and Software 31:37-46

Goharnejad H, Mohamadi Naser M, Zakeri Niri M (2017) The optimization of energy supply systems by sequential streamflow routing method and Invasive Weed Optimization Algorithm; case study: Karun II hydroelectric power plant. Journal of Hydraulic Structures 3(1):71-82, doi: 10.22055/jhs.2017.13318

Gumindoga W, Rientjes T, Shekede MD, Rwasoka DT, Nhapi I, Haile AT (2014) Hydrological impacts of urbanization of two catchments in Harare, Zimbabwe. Remote Sensing 6(12):12544-12574

Habib E, Haile AT, Sazib N, Zhang Y, Rientjes T (2014) Effect of bias correction of satellite-rainfall estimates on runoff simulations at the source of the Upper Blue Nile. Remote Sensing 6(7):6688-6708

Hunukumbura P, Weerakoon S, Herath S (2008) Runoff modeling in the upper Kotmale Basin. In: Hennayake N, Rekha N, Nawfhal M, Alagan R, Daskon C (Eds.), Traversing No Man’s Land, Interdisciplinary Essays in Honor of Professor Madduma Bandara. University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka:169-184

Kalita DN (2008) A study of basin response using HEC-HMS and subzone reports of CWC, Proceedings of the 13th National Symposium on Hydrology. National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee, New Delhi

Kibena J, Nhapi I, Gumindoga W (2014) Assessing the relationship between water quality parameters and changes in landuse patterns in the Upper Manyame River, Zimbabwe. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 67:153-163

Mostafazadeh R, Sheikh V (2012) Rain-gauge density assessment in Golestan province using spatial correlation technique. Watershed Management Researches 24-4(93):79-87

Muzik I, Chang C (1993) A microcomputer‐based geographic information system for hydrologic simulation. Computer‐Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering 8(5):355-365

Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-A discussion of principles. Journal of hydrology 10(3):282-290

Nayak P, Venkatesh B, Krishna B, Jain SK (2013) Rainfall-runoff modeling using conceptual, data driven, and wavelet based computing approach. Journal of Hydrology 493:57-67

Florian P, Hannah L C, Dennis J P, Fredrik W, David S R, Jutta T (2015) The monetary benefit of early flood warnings in Europe. Environmental Science & Policy 51:278-291

Senay G, Verdin J (2004) Developing index maps of water-harvest potential in Africa. Applied Engineering in Agriculture 20(6):789

Stisen S, Jensen KH, Sandholt I, Grimes DI (2008) A remote sensing driven distributed hydrological model of the Senegal River basin. Journal of Hydrology 354(1):131-148

Teo C K, Grimes D I (2007) Stochastic modelling of rainfall from satellite data. Journal of hydrology 346(1):33-50

Yilma H, Moges SA (2007) Application of semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model for flow forecasting on upland catchments of Blue Nile River Basin, a case study of Gilgel Abbay catchment. Catchment and Lake Research 200