بررسی اثرات تغییراقلیم بر دما، بارش و خشکسالی‌های دوره آتی حوضه شادگان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب-دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب

2 سازه های هیدرولیکی،گروه تحصیلات تکمیلی،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد تهران جنوب،تهران،ایران

3 دانشجوی دکتری عمران آب-دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم تحقیقات تهران

4 دکتری مدیریت استادیار دانشگاه جامع امام حسین(ع).

چکیده

در این مطالعه با هدف ارزیابی اثرات تغییراقلیم بر دما، بارش و خشکسالی‌های آینده در حوضه شادگان، از خروجی سه مدل گردش کلی MPI-ESM-LR، BCC-CSM1-1 و NORESM1-M تحت سناریوهای انتشار RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 استفاده شد. خروجی این مدل‌ها توسط نرم‌افزار LARS-WG ریزمقیاس شد. جهت ارزیابی خشکسالی، از شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI) طی دوره‌ی گذشته (1986-2005) و دوره‌ی آینده (2020-2039) و در مقیاس‌های زمانی 6، 12 و 24 ماهه استفاده گردید. نتایج بیانگر افزایش دمای حداکثر و حداقل در تمام ماه‌های سال در دوره آینده نسبت به دوره پایه در حوضه شادگان می‌باشد. بارش در دوره آتی روند مشخصی ندارد. نتایج نشان داد تحت سناریوی RCP4.5 و در مقیاس‌های 6، 12 و 24 ماهه به‌ترتیب 16/17، 70/14 و 74/18 درصد از کل ماه‌ها در دوره آتی دارای وضعیت خشک و تحت سناریوی RCP8.5 در دوره آتی در مقیاس-های 6، 12 و 24 ماهه به‌ترتیب 45/16، 03/17 و 21/15 درصد از ماه‌ها دارای وضعیت خشک می‌باشند. ماه‌های با وضعیت خشک در دوره آتی نسبت به دوره پایه تحت RCP4.5 و RCP8.5، در مقیاس 6 ماهه به ترتیب 27/2 و 56/1 درصد افزایش، در مقیاس 12 ماهه به ترتیب 77/2 و 44/0 درصد کاهش و در مقیاس 24 ماهه به ترتیب 00/2 و 53/5 درصد کاهش خواهد یافت. پیش‌بینی می‌شود در دوره آتی تحت تاثیر تغییراقلیم در حوضه شادگان، تعداد ماه‌های خشکسالی نسبت به تعداد ماه‌های با وضعیت نرمال و مرطوب کمتر می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effects of climate change on temperature, precipitation and drought in the the future Shadegan basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammad ali node farahani 1
  • Ana Rasekhi 2
  • Behnam Parmas 3
  • abdolrahman keshvari 4
1 PhD Student in Water Resource Engineering ,Department of Civil Engineering, Azad University South Tehran Branch,Tehran,Iran
2 Graduated in hydraulic structure, Azad University South Tehran Branch,Tehran,Iran
3 PhD Student in Water Resource Engineering , Department of Civil Engineering, Islamic Azad University Tehran Science and Research Branch
4 Associate Professor ,Department of Management ,Imam Hossain University
چکیده [English]

In this study, to evaluate the effects of climate change on temperature, precipitation and future droughts in Shadegan Basin, output of the MPI-ESM-LR، BCC-CSM1-1 and NORESM1-M general circulation models under diffusion Scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 is used. The outputs of general circulation models are downscaled using LARS-WG software. To evaluation of drought, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used for the base period (1986-2005) and Future period (2020-2039) and in time scales of 6, 12 and 24 month. The results showed that the maximum temperature and minimum temperature increased in all months the future period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the Shadegan Basin. Precipitation changes do not show a general increasing or decreasing trend. The results showed that under RCP4.5 scenario and in time scales of 6, 12, and 24-month, respectively 17.16, 14.70 and 18.74 percent of all months the future period would be dry. In addition, Under RCP8.5 scenario and time scales of 6, 12, and 24-month, respectively 16.45, 17.03 and 15.21 percent of all months the future period will be dry. The months of dry under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in future period, in time scale 6-month respectively 2.27 and 1.56 percent will be increase, in time scale 12-month respectively 2.77 and 0.44 percent will be decrease and in time scale 24-month respectively 2.00 and 5.53 percent will be decreased. So anticipated under climate change in future period, the number of drought months is less than the number of months with normal and wet conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Drought
  • model of the General Circulation
  • Precipitation
  • Shadeghan

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