شناسایی عوامل کلیدی آینده‌پژوهی اثرات اجرای طرح انتقال آب رودخانه سیروان (طرح سامانه گرمسیری) بر تحولات مکانی – فضایی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان مهران- استان ایلام)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترای جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار گروه کارآفرینی و توسعه روستایی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی سناریونویسی به‌عنوان ابزاری برای برنامه‌ریز، بالا بردن کارایی و کیفیت برنامه‌ریزی‌ها در شرایط عدم اطمینان در آینده است. یکی از راهبردهای عملی در این زمینه، شناسایی عوامل کلیدی آینده‌پژوهی اثرات اجرای انتقال آب رودخانه سیروان (طرح سامانه گرمسیری) به شهرستان مهران در استان ایلام است. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف از نوع کاربردی، از نظر روش ترکیبی از روش‌های اسنادی و پیمایشی و از نظر ماهیت بر اساس روش‌های جدید آینده‌پژوهی، تحلیلی و اکتشافی است که با به‌کارگیری ترکیبی از مدل‌های کمی و کیفی انجام گرفته است. با توجه به ماهیت این پژوهش، از روش‌های دلفی و تحلیل ساختاری بهره گرفته شده است. این مقالـه سـعی دارد ضمن ارائه الگویی برای شناسایی عوامل کلیدی مؤثر بر روند تحولات مکانی- فضایی در مقیاس ناحیه‌ای، زمینـة تهیـة سناریوهای متصور برای آیندۀ تحولات مکانی- فضایی ناشی از اجرای طرح سامانۀ گرمسیری را فراهم کنـد. داده‌هـای ایـن تحقیق شامل 30 عامل است که با روش دلفی از نظرات خبرگان برنامه‌ریزی شهرستان جمع‌آوری و با نرم‌افزار میک‌مک تحلیل شده است که نهایتاً عوامل وسایل ارتباط جمعی، میزان جمعیت و مهاجرت، اشتغال‌زایی، امنیت سرمایه‌گذاری، تحولات درآمدی، بازار تقاضا و فروش، بهره‌وری، زیربناهای روستایی، امنیت مرزی، سطح زیر کشت، ماشین‌آلات کشاورزی، ظرفیت تولید، سکونتگاه‌های جدید و اصلاح بافت کالبدی روستاها به‌عنوان 13 عوامل کلیدی تحولات مکانی- فضایی، شناسـایی و وضـعیت احتمـالی آنها در افق سال 1408 یعنی در ده سال بعد از اجرای کامل طرح سامانه گرمسیری تدوین شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying The Key Factors Of The Future Studies On effects of implementation of the Sirvan River Water Transformation (The Arid Areas Project) on the Locational-Spatial Changes (Case study: Mehran county- ilam province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • javad alibeygi 1
  • hamid jalalian 2
  • farhad azizpour 2
  • Hossein mahdizadeh 3
1 Ph.D. student of Geography and Rural Planning, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
2 Associate Professor of human Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
3 Assistant Professor of Entrepreneurship and Rural Development, Faculty of Agriculture, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran
چکیده [English]

The main purpose of scenario as a tool for planning is to increase the efficiency and quality of planning in the future of uncertainty. One of the practical strategies in this field is identifying the key factors of the prospect of the effects transfer of Water from the Sirvan River (The Arid Areas Project) to tropical areas in the county of Mehran to prepare ground for developing imaginary scenarios for the future of spatial evolution of the region.This research is a practical type in terms of purpose, a combination of documentary and scrolling methods In terms of methodology and in terms of its nature, it is analytical and explorative based on new approaches to future studies which have been with a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Depending on the nature of this research, it has been used Delphi methods and structural analysis. The data of this research consists of 30 factors that Delphi methodology was used to collect the views of planning experts in development and water affairs of the county and analyzed with the help of MicMac software which Finally, the factors of mass media, population and migration, employment creation, investment security, income developments, demand and sales market, productivity, rural infrastructure, border security, cultivation area, agricultural machinery, production capacity, new settlements and Correction of the body texture of villages were identified as 13 factors of spatial-spatial changesn and has been formulated their probable situation on the horizon of 1408.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Future Studies
  • Key Factors
  • Local -Spatial changes
  • Effective Drivers
  • Mehran County

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