ارزیابی دقت مدل های شناسایی فاز برف از باران در ایستگاه های هواشناسی منطقه کوهستانی زاگرس

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار/ پژوهشکده حفاظت خاک و آبخیزداری، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویج کشاورزی، تهران.

2 دانشگاه تبریز- گروه آب و هواشناسی

3 دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی، گروه اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه تبریز،تبریز،ایران

4 استاد/دانشکده جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشگاه تبریز.

چکیده

در این پژوهش امکان برآورد برف در منطقه کوهستانی زاگرس با استفاده از مدلهای مختلف شناسایی فاز برف از باران مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. برای این منظور از داده‌های روزانه بارش، عمق برف و دمای هوای 36 ایستگاه سینوپتیک و اقلیم شناسی منطقه در دوره آماری 1951-2015 استفاده شد. برای شناسایی فاز برف از باران در ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه از هشت مدل مختلف که ورودی همه آنها دما و بارش روزانه است استفاده شد و عملکرد آنها در پیش‌بینی درست برف ایستگاه ها به کمک مجموعه‌ای از سنجه‌های ارزیابی دقت مدل در پیش بینی‌ درست رویدادهای مشاهده‌ای ارزیابی شد. نتایج نشان داد که آستانه دمایی جدایی برف از باران (Tt) در ایستگاههای منتخب بین 7/1- تا 5 درجه سیلسیوس در تغییر است ولی این مقدار در بیش از 75 درصد از ایستگاه ها بین صفر و 2 درجه سیلسیوس است. همچنین مشخص شد که دامنه دمایی (Tr) که در آن هم احتمال ریزش برف و هم احتمال ریزش باران وجود دارد از ایستگاهی به ایستگاه دیگر متفاوت است، هرچند که این مقدار در اغلب ایستگاه ها بین 9 تا 13 درجه سیلسیوس است. سنجه‌های مختلف نشان دادند که هر هشت مدل استفاده شده در این مطالعه قابلیت پیش بینی روزهای برفی در منطقه را دارند و عملکرد مدلهای USACE، Pipes، Keinzel، Motoyama و Tangent در همه ایستگاهها تقریباً همانند است. براساس نتایج سنجه‌های مختلف، مدل USACE در همه ایستگاهها بهترین پیش‌بینی و مدلهای McCabe، Brown (Max, Min) و Brown (Mean) ضعیفترین پیش‌بینی روزهای برفی دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing The Accuracy Of Snow-Rain Phase Separation Models at Meteorological Stations of the Mountainous region of Zagros, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Tayeb Raziei 1
  • Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl 2
  • Akram Parandeh Khouzani 3
  • Behroz Sarisarraf 4
1 Assistant professor, Soil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Center (SCWMRI), Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Tehran, Iran.
2 Professor Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.
3 Department of Climatology,Faculty of Geography and Planning,Tabriz University,Tabriz,IRAN
4 - Professor, Department of Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Planning, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this study, the possibility of snow estimation using the snow-rain phase separation models that usually integrated into the snowmelt models or in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are evaluated in the Zagros region, Iran. For this purpose, daily precipitation (rain and snow) and temperature from 36 weather stations distributed over Zagros and having data records over the 1951-2015 period were used. The performances of the snow-rain phase separation models in accurately predicting the phase of precipitation at the studied stations were evaluated through constructing contingency tables between the predictions and observations and eventually evaluating the result using a set of statistical skill scores. A statistically significant relationship was found between the phase of precipitation predicted by the models and the snow occurrences observed at all selected stations. The USACE, Pipes and Quick, Hyperbolic tangent function and Kienzle were found as the best models while the Mccabe and Wolock model and the Brown model based on the maximum and minimum of temperature resulted in the weaker predictions. The snow-rain separation temperature threshold at the selected stations varies from -1.7 to 5 degree Celsius, nonetheless, it it is between 0 and 2 degree Celsius in more than 75% of stations. It was also found that the temperature range within which both snow and rain can occur simultaneously varies in all considered stations, but in most of the stations it is between 9 and 13 degrees Celsius.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Snow-Rain Phase Separation
  • Snow-Rain Phase Temperature Threshold
  • Snowfall Temperature Range
  • Snow Depth Prediction
  • Snow Melt Models
Ahmadi A, Khoramian A, Safavi HR (2015) Assessment of climate change impacts on snow-runoff processes a case study: Zayandehroud river basin. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research 11(2):70-82 (In Persian)
Akbari M, Ranaee E, Mirzakhan H, Dargahi A, Jargeh MR (2017) Simulation of snowmelt runoff using SRM model and comparison with neural networks ANN and ANFIS (Case study: Kardeh Dam Basin). Journal of Water and Soil  30(6):1794-1807 (In Persian)
Auer AH (1974) The rain versus snow threshold temperatures. Journal of  Weatherwise 27(2):67 
Bagheri Fahrji R (2011) Estimating the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent in mountain watersheds using geostatistic methods (Case study: Bidakhovid Basin). M.Sc. Thesis, School of Watershed, Islamic Azad University Maybod  of  Yazd (In Persian)
Braun LN, Lang H (1986) Simulation of snowmelt runoff in lowland and lower Alpine regions of Switzerland. In: Modelling Snowmelt-Induced Processes, IAHS Publication, No. 155, PP:125- 140, Walingford. UK.
Brown RD (2000) Northern Hemisphere snow cover variability and change. Journal of Climate 13:2339–2355
Brown RD, Petkova N (2007) Snow cover variability in Bulgarian mountainous regions 1931–2000. International Journal of Climatology 27:1215–1229
Dai A (2008) Temperature and pressure dependence of the rain snow phase transition over land and ocean. Journal of Geophys Res Lett 35:L12802
Dehghani M, Morid S, Norouzi A (2010) Runoff simulation in snowbound catchments, using SRM and ANN models to estimate hydropower potentials in data scarcity situations. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research 6(3):12-24 (In Persian)
Delavar M, Morid S, Nikbakht N (2012) Distributed snowmelt simulation in ungauged mountainous catchments, (Case study: Imamzadeh Davoud Catchment). Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research 7(3):41-50 (In Persian)
Dini GH R, Zieaean Firouzabadi P, Alimohammadi Sarab A, Dadashi hanghah S (2008) GIS-Based snow mapping in central Alborz Mountain Chain using MODIS and AVHRR. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research 3 (3):1-8 (In Persian)
Fathzadeh A S, Abdam S (2013) Evaluation of geostatistical methods to estimate the spatial distribution of snow depth in semi-arid areas (Case study: watershed Yazd Sakhvid). Journal of Scientific-Research Irrigation and Water Engineering 4(13):113-124 (In Persian)
Fathzadeh A S, Gharaei-Manesh S (2013) The application of artificial intelligence to simulate the spatial distribution of snow density in semi-arid regions (Case study: Yazd-Ardakan plain). Journal of Kavsh Geographical Desert Areas 1(2):1-16 (In Persian)
Frei A, Robinson D A (1999) Northern Hemisphere snow extent:regional variability 1972-1994. International Journal of Climatology 19:1535-1560
Frei A, Robinson D A, Hoghes MG (1999) North American snow extent 1900-1994. International Journal of Climatology 19:1517-1534
Fuladipanah M, Jorabloo M (2012) The estimation of snowmelt runoff using SRM, Case Study (Gharasoo Basin, Iran). Journal of World Applied Sciences 17(4):433-438
Ghaemi H, Morid S (1994) Snow analysis in Damavand watershed basin. Journal of Nivar, 24: 23-37 (In Persian)
Ghaemi H, Nouhi A (1976) Statistical analysis of snow occurences. Iranian meteorological organization, 73p (In Persian)
Ghorbani M A, Azani A, Mahmoudi Vanolya S (2016) Rainfall-runoff modeling using hybrid intelligent models. Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research 11(2):146-150 (In Persian)
Gillies R R, Wang SY, Huang WR (2012) Observational and supportive modelling analyses of winter precipitation change in China over the last half century. International Journal of Climatology 32(5):747–758
Groisman PY, Karl TR, Knight RW (1994) Changes of snow cover, temperature, and radiative heat balance. Journal of Climate 7:1633-1656
Khoshkhoo Y, Rahimi H, Jansson P E, Irannejad P, Khalili A (2015) Calibration of an energy balance model to simulate wintertime soil temperature, soil frost depth and snow depth for a 14 year period in a highland area of Iran. Journal of Cold Regions Science and Technology 119:47-60
Kienzle SW (2008) Anew temperature based method to separate rain and snow. Journal of  Hydrology Processes 22:5067–5085
L’hôte Y, Chevallier P, Coudrain A, Lejeune Y, Etchevers P (2005) Relationship between precipitation phase and air temperature: comparison between the Bolivian Andes and the Swiss Alps/Relation entre phase de precipitation et temperature de l’air: comparaison entre les Andes Boliviennes et les Alpes Suisses. Journal of Hydrology Sciences 50:989–997
Liu G (2008) Deriving snow cloud characteristics from Cloud-Sat observations. Journal of Geophysical Research 113:D00A09
Lundquist JD, Neiman PJ, Martner B, White AB, Gottas DJ, Ralph FM (2008) Rain versus snow in the Sierra Nevada, California: Comparing doppler profiling radar and surface observations of melting level. Journal of Hydrometeorology 9(2):194–211
Lynch-Stieglitz M (1994) The development and validation of a simple snow model for the GISS GCM. Journal of Climate 7:1842–1855
Marofi S, Tabari H, Zare Abyaneh H, Sharifi MR, Akhond Ali EM (2009) Zoning snow water equivalent in Karoon using GIS(Case study: sub basin Samsamie). Journal of agricultural Sciences and natural resources 16(3):11-20  (In Persian)
Martinec J, Rango A (1986) Parameter values for snowmelt runoff modelling. Journal of Hydrology 84:197–219
Matsuo T, Sasyo Y (1981) Non-melting phenomena of snowflakes observed in sub saturated air below freezing level. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan 59:26-32
Matsuo T, Sasyo Y, Sato Y (1981) Relationship between types of precipitation on the ground and surface meteorological elements. Journal of Meteor Soc Japan 59:462–476
McCabe GJ, Wolock DM (2010) Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters. Journal of Climatic Change 99:141–153
Miryaghoobzadeh M, Ghanbarpour MR, Habibnejad Roshan M (2011) Snow melt river flow modeling using SRM model (Case study: Karaj Dam Basin). Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research (IR-WRR) 7(3):40-52 (In Persian)
Motoyama H (1990) Simulation of seasonal snow cover based on air temperature and precipitation. Journal of Appl Meteor 29:1104–1110
Najafi Eigdir A, Ghodoosi J, Saghafian B, Porhemmat J (1998) Snowmelt runoff estimation by using RS and GIS (Case study: Shahar-chi watershed, Orumiyeh). Journal of  Pajouhesh and Sazandegi 76:177-185 (In Persian)
Najafi M, Sheykhivand J, Porhemat J (2004) Snowmelt-runoff estimation using SRM model (Case study: Mahabad Basin). Journal of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources 11(3):111-121 (In Persian)
Najafzadeh R, Abrishamchi A, Tajreishy M, Taheri Shahraeeni H (2004) Stream flow with snowmelt runoff modeling using RS and GIS (Case study: Pelasjan sub-basin). Journal of Water and Wastewater 15(52):1-84 (In Persian)
Pedram M, Ghaemi H, Hedayati Dezfuli A, Mortazavi A (2011) Snow occurrences in Kurdestan, Iran and its relationship with temperature. Journal of Geographical researches 25(100) (In Persian)
Petkova N, Koleva E, Alexandrov V (2004) Snow cover variability and change in mountainous regions of Bulgaria 1931–2000. Journal of Meteorologische Zeitschrift 13:19–23
Pipes A, Quick MC (1977) UBC watershed model users guide. Department of Civil Engineering, University of British Columbia
Porhemat J, Saghafian B, Sedghi H (2005) Application of SRM model in snowmelt runoff simulation using NOAA AVHRR images in Ungaged Basins )Case study: Khersan sub-basin, Karoon). Journal of Iran-Water Resources Research 1(1):1-11 (In Persian)
Robinson DA (2003) Recent variability of northern hemisphere snow cover. Preprints: Seventh Conference on Polar Meteorology and Oceanography. American Meteorological Society: Hyannis,  Massachusetts, paper 13.12, 6p.
Sayedi Elmabad M, Moradi H R, Ghanbarpour M R (2010) Estimation of snowmelt runoff using IRS satellite data and statistical models (The case study: Zarinerood Basin). Journal of Iran-Watershed Management Science and Engineering 3(9):35-44 (In Persian)
Scherrer SC, Appenzeller C, Laternser M (2004) Trends in Swiss Alpine snow days: The role of local- and large-scale climate variability. Journal of  Geophysical Research Letters 31:L13215
Schreider S Y, Whetton P H, Jakeman A J, Pittock A B (1997) Runoff modelling for snow-affected catchments in the Australian alpine region eastern Victoria. Journal of Hydrology 200(4):1–23
Sedighi F, Vafakhah M, Javadi M R (2015) Application of artificial neural network for snowmelt-runoff (Case study: Latyan Dam Watershed). Journal of Watershed Management Research 6(12):45-54
Serreze M C, Walsh J E, Chapin F S, Osterkamp T, Dyurgerov D, Romanovsky V, Oechel W C, Morison J, Zhang T, Barry R G (2000) Observational evidence of recent change in the northern high-latitude environment. Journal of Climatic Change 46(1–2):159–207
Shahabi S, Khezri S B, Ahmad B, Musa T A (2014) Application of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer snow cover maps in modeling snowmelt runoff process in the Central Zab Basin, Iran. Journal of Appl Remote Sens 8(1):5
Sharifi M R, Akhond Ali A M, Porhemmat J, Mohammadi J (2007a) Application of cluster analysis to estimating snow depth: (Case study: Samsami Basin). Journal of Agricultural Research: water, soil and plants in agriculture 7(4): 25-37 (In Persian)
Sharifi M R, Akhund Ali M, Porhemat J, Mohamadi J (2007b) Assess the linear correlation and ordinary kriging method to estimate the spatial distribution of snow depth in the watershed Samsami. Journal of Iran Watershed Management Science and Engineering  (1):24-38 (In Persian)
Solaymani H R, Gosain A K (2012) SWAT application for snow bound Karkheh River Basin of Iran. In: International SWAT Conference Proceedings, Indian Institute of Technology  Dehli, Indian, 334-347
Tabari H, Marofi S, Zare Abyaneh H, Amiri Chaijan R, Sharifi MR, Akhond Ali EM (2009) Comparison of non-linear regression analysis with computational intelligence methods to estimate the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent in Karoon. Journal of Science and Technology of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Soil and Water Sciences 13(50):29-40 (In Persian)
Tabari H, Marofi S, Zare Abyaneh H, Sharifi M R (2010) Comparison of artificial neural network and combined models in estimating spatial distribution of snow depth and snow water equivalent in Samsami Basin of Iran. Journal of Neural Computing and Applications 19(4):625-63
Tasdighian  M, Rahimzadegan  M (2017) Evaluation and improvement of snow cover detection from MODIS Images. Journal of  Iran-Water Resources Research  13(1):163-177 (In Persian)
US Army Corps of Engineers (1956) Summary report of the snow investigation hydrological practices. 3rd Edn,  Chapter 2, North Pacific Division, Portland, Oregon, 54–56
Vafakhah M, Mohseni Saravi M, Mahdavi M, Alavi Panah Sk (2008) Geostatistics application to estimate snow depth and density in the watershed Ourazan. Journal of Scientific-Research of Iran-Watershed Management Science and Engineering 2)4(:49-55 (In Persian)
Vafakhah M, Nouri A, Alavipanah S K (2015) Snowmelt-runoff estimation using radiation SRM model in Taleghan watershed. Journal of Environ Earth Sci 73:993–1003
Wilks D S (2011) Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences. Volume 100, Third Edition (International Geophysics), USA
Yang Z L, Dickinson R E, Robock A, Vinnikov KY (1997) Validation of the snow submodel of the biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme with Russian snow cover and meteorological observational data. Journal of  Climate 10(2):353–373
YE H, Cohen J, Rawlins M (2013) Discrimination of solid from liquid precipitation over Northern Eurasia using surface atmospheric conditions. Journal of  Hydrometeorology 14:1345-1355
Zareabyaneh H (2012) Estimating the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent and snow density using ANN method (Case study: Azarbayejan Watershed). Journal of Water Resources Engineering 5(15):1-12 (In Persian)