ارزیابی یکپارچه سامانه منابع آب خراسان جنوبی در سطح استراتژیک با استفاده از چارچوب هدفگرا (GOF)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه باهنر کرمان

2 استادیار / گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران

چکیده

یکی از مهم‌ترین مراحل برنامه‌ریزی و اجرای مدیریت یکپارچه منابع آب، ارزیابی سامانه‌های منابع آب است. در ارزیابی یکپارچه می‌بایست مشکلات سامانه شناسایی شده و روابط علت و معلولی مشخص ‌گردند. اما از آنجا که معمولا سطوح مختلف در ارزیابی، به خصوص سطح استراتژیک کمتر مورد توجه قرار می‌گیرد، روابط علت و معلولی به درستی تعیین نمی‌شود که می‌تواند مدل‌سازی، سیاست‌گذاری و در نهایت مدیریت سامانه را دچار اشکال کند. در تحقیق حاضر از چارچوب هدفگرا در سطح استراتژیک برای ارزیابی یکپارچه استفاده می‌شود. چارچوب هدفگرا شامل بخش‌های مقیاس، دامنه، بعد، زمینه کلی، زمینه و زیرزمینه‌ها می‌باشد. با درنظر گرفتن این بخش‌ها، روابط علت و معلولی سامانه مشخص گردیده و بر اساس آن نشانگرهای لازم برای ارزیابی مشخص می‌شوند. برای بررسی عملی این چارچوب استان خراسان جنوبی مورد مطالعه قرار می‌گیرد. پس از تعیین نشانگرها، مقادیر آنها کمی شده و روند هریک مورد بررسی قرار می‌گیرد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد گرچه در بخش کشاورزی افزایش برداشت وجود داشته، اما تولید و ارزش افزوده در واحد سطح روند کاهشی نشان می‌دهد. به عبارتی آب اضافی برداشت شده، برای افزایش سطح زیر کشت بوده است، در حالی‌که کارایی روند کاهشی داشته است. در مورد محصولات باغی که سیاست‌گذاری‌ها در جهت افزایش سطح زیر کشت آنها بوده است روند نزولی تولید در واحد سطح کاملا قابل توجه است. اثرات این ضعف‌ها در بخش‌های دیگر یعنی اقتصادی و اجتماعی شامل کاهش اشتغال در بخش کشاورزی و مهاجرت از روستا به شهر دیده می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The South Khorasan water resources integrated assessment at a strategic level using Goal Oriented Framework (GOF)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Marzieh Samareh Hashemi 1
  • A Bagheri 2
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

One of the most important steps in planning and implementation of integrated water resources management is water resource system assessment. To do an integrated assessment, system problems and cause and effect relationships should be detected and defined. But since different levels of assessment specially the strategic level is ignored generally, the cause and effect relationships are not defined well, this will result in modeling problems and so in system management. In this paper to do an integrated assessment of water resources systems in a strategic level, Goal Oriented Framework (GOF) is applied. GOF includes scale, domain, dimension, generic theme, theme and sub-theme parts. Considering all these parts the cause and effect relationships are defined and the indicators are developed. The south Khorasan province is considered as a case study. The indicators are determined using the statistics, then the trend of each indicator is studied. The results show although the water withdraw in agriculture sector is increasing the production and the value added per unit of cultivated area is decreasing. This means the surplus water withdrawal is used to increase cultivated areas, meanwhile not only the efficiency is not increased, but also it is decreased. It is noticeable that the agricultural policy was to increase the orchard area, but the indicators show the efficiency of orchards is decreased. The consequences of these problems are noticeable in economic and social sectors, so that the agricultural sector employment has decreased and rural-urban migration has occurred.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Integrated assessment
  • Water Resources systems
  • Strategic Planning
  • Goal oriented framework
  • South Khorasan

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