ارزیابی مدل DWB و اصلاح آن برای برآورد مولفه‌های بیلان آب در مقیاس سال-حوضه(مطالعه موردی: محدوده مطالعاتی رخ و نیشابور)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 استاد دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

3 دانشیار دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

4 استاد گروه مهندسی آب دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

5 استاد گروه مهندسی آب دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

6 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

هدف اصلی از پژوهش حاضر اصلاح، توسعه و ارزیابی مدل دینامیکی بیلان آب «DWB »، با رویکرد کاربرد ضرایب تناسبی «به نوعی قیود مبتنی بر واقعیت‌های هیدرولوژیکی» و اعمال میزان برداشت از منابع آب سطحی و زیرزمینی به همراه واسنجی و تحلیل عدم قطعیت پارامترها آن، است. نتایج نشان داد که به طورکلی نمی‌توان یک مجموعه پارامتر بهینه برای واسنجی مدل DWB و SDDWB (شکل توسعه یافته) بدست آورد و اغلب پارامترهای این مدل‌ها برای هر دو محدوده مطالعاتی (رخ و نیشابور) در واسنجی مدل از قابلیت تشخیص‌پذیری پایینی برخوردار هستند. مقدار متوسط خطای کلی بیلان سطحی مدل DWB، بیانگر عملکرد ضعیف مدل بوده و بین مقادیر تغییرات حجم آبخوان محاسباتی و مشاهداتی اختلاف معنادار وجود دارد که دلیل اصلی آن عدم اعمال اثرات برداشت از منابع آب زیرزمینی در مدل DWB است. بررسی نتایج عملکرد مدل SDDWB نشان داد که مقدار نسبی شاخص‌های PRMSE برای هر دو محدوده مطالعاتی، کمتر از 10 درصد برآورد شده که نشان دهنده دقت قابل قبول مدل SDDWB می‌باشد. بطور کلی نتایج بیانگر آن است که میزان خطای کلی تخمین مولفه‌های معادله‌ی بیلان آب سطحی و زیرزمینی با استفاده از مدل SDDWB در مقایسه با مدل DWB بسیار کمتر بوده و این امر بیانگر تاثیر مثبت اصلاحات و توسعه صورت گرفته بر روی مدل DWB می‌باشد.
واژه های کلیدی: بیلان آب،ضرایب تناسبی، SDDWB، عدم قطعیت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of DWB model and its correction for estimation of water balance components in Annual - watershed scale (Case study: Neishaboor and Rokh watershed)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Emamifar 1
  • Kamran Davari 2
  • Hossein Ansari 3
  • Bijan Ghahraman 4
  • Seyed Mahmoud Hosseini 5
  • Mohsen Naseri 6
1 Irrigation and Drainage PhD student at Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
3 Associate Professor, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
4 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
5 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
6 Department of Civil Engineering Faculty, Tehran University
چکیده [English]

The main purpose of this study is reform, development and evaluation of dynamic water balance model “DWB” with the approach of the proportional coefficients “To the kind of hydrological reality-based constraints” and acts the withdrawal of groundwater and surface water resources along with calibration and uncertainty analysis its parameter. The results showed that generally cannot obtain a set of optimal parameters for calibration SDDWB and DWB model and often the parameters of the models are low detection capability for model calibration in both study area (Neyshabur and Rokh watershed). The average total amount of surface water balance error DWB model for Neyshabur and Rokh watershed is Respectively -9.74 and -69.63 Cubic meters that is Represented poor performance model. there is a significant difference between Aquifer volume changes observed and simulated by DWB That the main reason is the lack beneficial effects of groundwater withdrawals in this model. Reviews performance results showed that the relative PRMSE index of the SDDWB model for both the study areas less than 10 percent, indicating acceptable accuracy SDDWB model. In general, the results indicate that the overall error rate of surface and groundwater discharge equation components using SDDWB model is much lower than the DWB model, which indicates the positive impact reform and development on the DWB model.
Keywords: Water balance, Proportionality coefficient, SDDWB, Uncertainty

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water balance
  • Proportionality coefficient
  • SDDWB
  • Uncertainty
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