بررسی اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم بر سیستم‌های منابع آب و کشاورزی در چارچوب ارزیابی ریسک منطقه‌ای ( مطالعه موردی:حوضه دریاچه زریبار)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد /مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 ستادیار /گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد/ مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پدیده تغییر‌اقلیم و پیش‌بینی اثرات آن بر کره زمین به‌منظور کاهش آسیب‌پذیری و مقابله با آن از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. از جمله موضوعات مهم در مطالعات تغییر‌اقلیم عدم‌قطعیت عمیق این پدیده و تحلیل چشم انداز آتی متغیر‌ها در این شرایط است. در این مطالعه تلاش گردید با استفاده از روش ارزیابی ریسک منطقه‌ای (RRA) به بررسی جامع شرایط حوضه‌های آبریز در شرایط عدم‌قطعیت پرداخته شود. بدین منظور حوضه دریاچه زریبار به عنوان منطقه مورد مطالعه انتخاب گردید. در این راستا از مدل واسنجی شده SWAT برای شبیه‌سازی حوضه در شرایط تغییر‌اقلیم استفاده گردید. برای تحلیل اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم خروجی‌های ریز مقیاس شده سناریو‌های RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 از 9 مدل GCM در دوره مبنا (2005-1976) و سه دوره پیش‌بینی (2040-2011، 2070-2041 و 2100-2071) جهت پیش‌بینی اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم در حوضه به مدل وارد گردید. نتایج حاصل از بررسی خروجی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که مقدار میانگین سالانه دما در دوره اول 3/0، در دوره دوم 6/0 و دوره سوم 1 درجه سلسیوس افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین میانگین سالانه بارش در منطقه در سه دوره به‌ترتیب 5/38، 66 و 1/87 میلی‌متر افزایش خواهد یافت. بررسی اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم بر گیرنده‌های خطر در حوضه زریبار در چارچوب ارزیابی ریسک منطقه‌ای نشان دهنده این است که عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی و تغذیه آبخوان در معرض بیشترین آسیب ناشی از این پدیده هستند. گندم دیم در میان محصولات کشت شده در منطقه بیشترین حساسیت را نسبت به تغییرات پیش‌بینی شده نشان داده است. این نتایج همگی لزوم بستر‌سازی‌های مناسب در منطقه جهت سازگاری با اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم را تاکید می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agricultural Systems in the Context of Regional Risk Assessment (Case Study: Lakes Basin Zeribar)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Z. Farmanbar 1
  • M. Delavar 2
  • somaye Imani Amir Abad 3
1 MSc Student, Water Resources Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Water Resources Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran.
3 MSc Graduate of Water Resources Engineering, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate Change and prediction its impacts on Earth’s system is an important issue in order to reduce vulnerability and deal with it. In this context, deep uncertainty is key factor in Climate Change studies. In this study we used the regional risk assessment framework (RRA) to integrated assessment of river basin situation considering in deep uncertainties. In this regard, the Zrebar Lake basin selected as a case study for assessment of proposed methodology. The calibrated SWAT model was used for simulation of the Zrebar Lake basin in the base and climate condition. The downscaled outputs of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios of nine GCM models in three projected periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) entered into the model. After assessing changes in vulnerable factors in Zrebar Lake basin in order to improve the condition of these factors, adaptation strategies were evaluated with regional risk assessment framework. The results show that the mean annual temperature in first projection period 0.3°, in second projection period 0.6° and by the end of the twenty-first century about 1° will increased. Also the mean annual precipitation in three projected periods will increase respectively about 38.5, 66.0 and 87.1 mm. Assessment of climate change impacts on risk receptors show that crop yield and recharge of aquifers faced with greatest damage in climate change. Among the crops, rainfed wheat deal with more damage rather than other crops. The results indicate the need for appropriate infrastructure in order to cope with the effects of climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Regional Risk Assessment
  • Zrebar Lake
  • SWAT

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