بررسی اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم بر سیستم‌های منابع آب و کشاورزی در چارچوب ارزیابی ریسک منطقه‌ای ( مطالعه موردی:حوضه دریاچه زریبار)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد /مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

2 ستادیار /گروه مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد/ مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران

چکیده

پدیده تغییر‌اقلیم و پیش‌بینی اثرات آن بر کره زمین به‌منظور کاهش آسیب‌پذیری و مقابله با آن از اهمیت بسزایی برخوردار است. از جمله موضوعات مهم در مطالعات تغییر‌اقلیم عدم‌قطعیت عمیق این پدیده و تحلیل چشم انداز آتی متغیر‌ها در این شرایط است. در این مطالعه تلاش گردید با استفاده از روش ارزیابی ریسک منطقه‌ای (RRA) به بررسی جامع شرایط حوضه‌های آبریز در شرایط عدم‌قطعیت پرداخته شود. بدین منظور حوضه دریاچه زریبار به عنوان منطقه مورد مطالعه انتخاب گردید. در این راستا از مدل واسنجی شده SWAT برای شبیه‌سازی حوضه در شرایط تغییر‌اقلیم استفاده گردید. برای تحلیل اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم خروجی‌های ریز مقیاس شده سناریو‌های RCP2.6، RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 از 9 مدل GCM در دوره مبنا (2005-1976) و سه دوره پیش‌بینی (2040-2011، 2070-2041 و 2100-2071) جهت پیش‌بینی اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم در حوضه به مدل وارد گردید. نتایج حاصل از بررسی خروجی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که مقدار میانگین سالانه دما در دوره اول 3/0، در دوره دوم 6/0 و دوره سوم 1 درجه سلسیوس افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین میانگین سالانه بارش در منطقه در سه دوره به‌ترتیب 5/38، 66 و 1/87 میلی‌متر افزایش خواهد یافت. بررسی اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم بر گیرنده‌های خطر در حوضه زریبار در چارچوب ارزیابی ریسک منطقه‌ای نشان دهنده این است که عملکرد محصولات کشاورزی و تغذیه آبخوان در معرض بیشترین آسیب ناشی از این پدیده هستند. گندم دیم در میان محصولات کشت شده در منطقه بیشترین حساسیت را نسبت به تغییرات پیش‌بینی شده نشان داده است. این نتایج همگی لزوم بستر‌سازی‌های مناسب در منطقه جهت سازگاری با اثرات تغییر‌اقلیم را تاکید می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agricultural Systems in the Context of Regional Risk Assessment (Case Study: Lakes Basin Zeribar)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Z. Farmanbar 1
  • M. Delavar 2
  • somaye Imani Amir Abad 3
1 MSc Student, Water Resources Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran
2 Assistant Professor, Water Resources Engineering Department, College of Agriculture, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran.
3 MSc Graduate of Water Resources Engineering, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate Change and prediction its impacts on Earth’s system is an important issue in order to reduce vulnerability and deal with it. In this context, deep uncertainty is key factor in Climate Change studies. In this study we used the regional risk assessment framework (RRA) to integrated assessment of river basin situation considering in deep uncertainties. In this regard, the Zrebar Lake basin selected as a case study for assessment of proposed methodology. The calibrated SWAT model was used for simulation of the Zrebar Lake basin in the base and climate condition. The downscaled outputs of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios of nine GCM models in three projected periods (2011-2040 and 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) entered into the model. After assessing changes in vulnerable factors in Zrebar Lake basin in order to improve the condition of these factors, adaptation strategies were evaluated with regional risk assessment framework. The results show that the mean annual temperature in first projection period 0.3°, in second projection period 0.6° and by the end of the twenty-first century about 1° will increased. Also the mean annual precipitation in three projected periods will increase respectively about 38.5, 66.0 and 87.1 mm. Assessment of climate change impacts on risk receptors show that crop yield and recharge of aquifers faced with greatest damage in climate change. Among the crops, rainfed wheat deal with more damage rather than other crops. The results indicate the need for appropriate infrastructure in order to cope with the effects of climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Regional Risk Assessment
  • Zrebar Lake
  • SWAT
Ashofteh P (2008) Uncertainty analysis of climate change impact on the Bayesian approach (case study: Aidoghmoush basin east Azerbaijan). M.Sc. Thesis, Department of Irrigation and Drainage, Tehran University (In Persian) 
Baruffi F, Cisotto A, Cimolino A, Ferri M, Monego M, Norbiato D, Scarinci A (2012) Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction. Science of the Total Environment 440:154-166
Borah D K, Bera M (2003) Water-scale hydrologic and non-point source pollution models: Review of applications. American Society of Agricultural Engineers 47(3):789-803
Feng S, Hu Q, Huang W, Ho CH, Li R, Tang Z (2014) Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations. Global and Planetary Change 112:41-52
Gedney N, Cox P M, Betts R A, Boucher O, Huntingford C, Stott PA (2006) Detection of a direct carbon dioxide effect in continental river runoff records. Nature 439(7078):835-838
Imani S, Delavar M, Niksokhan M H (2017) Simulation and assessment of management practices for reduction of nutrients discharge to the Zrebar lake using SWAT model. Iran-water resources research 13(1):69-78 (In Persian) 
Iyalomhe F, Rizzi J, Pasini S, Torresan S, Critto A, Marcomini A (2015) Regional risk assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers. Science of the Total Environment 537:100-114
Jackson R B, Carpenter S R, Dahm C N, McKnight D M, Naiman R J, Postel S L, Running S W (2001) Water in a changing world. Ecological Applications 11(4):1027-1045
Jeppesen E, Kronvang B, Meerhoff  M, Søndergaard M, Hansen K M, Andersen H E, Olesen J E (2009) Climate change effects on runoff, catchment phosphorus loading and lake ecological state and potential adaptations. Journal of Environmental Quality 38(5):1930-1941
Jha M, Arnold J G, Gassma P W, Giorgi F, Gu R R (2006) Climate change sensitivity assessment on upper Mississippi river basin streamflows using SWAT. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association 42(4):997-1015
Koster R D, Dirmeyer P A, Guo Z, Bonan G, Chan E, Cox P, Yamada T (2004) Regions of strong coupling between soil moisture and precipitation. Science 305(5687):1138-1140
Labat D, Goddéris Y, Probst J L, Guyot J L (2004) Evidence for global runoff increase related to climate warming. Advances in Water Resources 27(6):631-642
Laux P, Jäckel G, Tingem R.M, Kunstmann H (2010) Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under rainfed conditions in Cameroon—A method to improve attainable crop yields by planting date adaptations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 150(9):1258-1271
Pasini S, Torresan S, Rizzi J, Zabeo, A, Critto A, Marcomini A (2012) Climate change impact assessment in Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part II: A spatially resolved regional risk assessmentScience of the Total Environment 440:219-235
Piao S, Yin L, Wang X, Ciais P, Peng S, Shen Z, Seneviratne SI (2009) Summer soil moisture regulated by precipitation frequency in China. Environmental Research Letters 4(4):044012
Rezaei zaman M, Morid S, Delavar M (2016) Evaluating climate adaptation strategies on agricultural production in the Siminehrud catchment and inflow into Lake Urmia, Iran using SWAT within an OECD framework. Agricultural Systems 147:98–110
Schaake J C, Waggoner P E (1990) From climate to flow. Climate Change and US Water Resources 177-206
Sharmila S, Joseph S, Sahai A K, Abhilash S, Chattopadhyay R (2015) Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models. Global and Planetary Change 124:62-78
Shrestha S, Bach TV, Pandey VP (2016) Climate change impacts on groundwater resources in Mekong Delta under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Environmental Science & Policy 61:1-13
Srinivasan M S, Gérard-Marchant P, TamieL V, Gburek W J, Steenhuis T S (2005) Watershed scale modeling of critical source areas of runoff generation and phosphorus transport. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 41(2):361-375
Su B, Huang J, Gemmer M, Jian D, Tao H, Jiang T, Zhao C (2016) Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin. Atmospheric Research 178:138-149
UNEP (2009) Ecosystem management programme. A new approach to sustainability. 2009 United Nations Environment Programme
Wu Y, Liu S, Gallant A L (2012) Predicting impacts of increased CO2 and climate change on the water cycle and water quality in the semiarid James River Basin of the Midwestern USA. Science of the Total Environment 430:150-160
Yin X, Olesen J E, Wang M, Öztürk I, Zhang H, & Chen F (2016) Impacts and adaptation of the cropping systems to climate change in the Northeast Farming Region of China. European Journal of Agronomy 78:60-72
Zhou G, Wei X, Wu Y, Liu S, Huang Y, Yan J, Liu X (2011) Quantifying the hydrological responses to climate change in an intact forested small watershed in Southern China. Global Change Biology 17(12):3736-3746