بررسی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر متغیرهای هواشناسی و خشکسالی استان گلستان

نوع مقاله: یادداشت فنی (5 صفحه)

نویسندگان

1 استادیار/ گروه مهندسی آب، واحد گرگان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرگان، ایران

2 کارشناس /مسئول کارگروه هواشناسی کاربردی، اداره کل هواشناسی استان گلستان.

چکیده

به منظور بررسی تغییرات دمای کمینه و بیشینه، بارش و شدت خشکسالی (شاخص SPI) استان گلستان طی دوره 2045-2016 نسبت به دوره 2015-1986، خروجی مدل‌های HadCM3 و ECHO-G تحت سناریو A2 توسط مدل LARS-WG در 15 ایستگاه هواشناسی ریزمقیاس شد. توانایی هر دو مدل در پیش‌بینی پارامترهای مورد نظر با استفاده از آماره‌های مختلف مناسب ارزیابی شد. مطابق پیش‌بینی مدل‌های HadCM3 و ECHO-G، میانگین سالانه دمای کمینه به ترتیب 5/0 و 6/1 و دمای بیشینه به ترتیب 2/0 و 7/0 درجه سانتی‌گراد افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین این مدل‌ها به ترتیب افزایش (9/30 میلی‌متر) و کاهش (8/11 میلی‌متر) بارش سالانه را پیش‌بینی کردند. هر دو مدل کاهش درصد وقوع دوره‌های خشک و مرطوب و افزایش وقوع دوره نرمال را در مقیاس ماهانه و افزایش درصد وقوع دوره‌های خشک و مرطوب و کاهش دوره نرمال را در دوره آتی پیش‌بینی کردند. همچنین تغییر درصد وقوع طبقات مختلف خشکسالی در دوره آتی در مدل ECHO-G بیشتر از مدل HadCM3 بود. نتایج نشان داد که بیشترین فراوانی طبقات بارش سالانه در دوره آماری پایه و مدل ECHO-G در محدوده 350 تا 550 میلی‌متر است در حالی که در مدل HadCM3 در محدوده 450 تا 650 میلی‌متر است. بیشترین میزان تغییر بارش تحت پیش‌بینی مدل‌های HadCM3 و ECHO-G به ترتیب در شهرستان‌های مراوه‌تپه و بندرگز مشاهده گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effect of climate change on meteorological parameters and drought in Golestan province

نویسندگان [English]

  • K Kaboosi 1
  • M Kordjazi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Departement of Water Engineering, Gorgan branch, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan, Iran
2 Responsible of Applied Meteorological Researches Group, Golestan Meteorological Administration.
چکیده [English]

This research was conducted to evaluate changes in minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation and drought severity (SPI index) in Golestan province during 2016-2045 period compared to the 1986-2015. For this, the output of HadCM3 and ECHO-G models under A2 scenario downscaled by LARS-WG model in 15 meteorological stations. The ability of the models for prediction of parameters using different statistics was appropriate. Based on the forecasts of HadCM3 and ECHO-G model, the annual average of minimum temperature by 0.4 and 1.6 and maximum temperature by 0.2 and 0.7°C will be increased, respectively. Also, these models predicted increment (30.9 mm) and reduction (11.8 mm) in the annual precipitation, respectively. Models predictions showed that decrease of occurance percents of dry and wet periods and increase of normal period will be occured in monthly scale. However, in yearly scale, increase of occurance percents of dry and wet periods and decrease of normal period was predicted. Also, variation of occurance percents of different drought classes in future period in ECHO-G model was more than HadCM3 model. Results showed that most frequency (area) of annual precipitation in basic period and ECHO-G model ranged between 350-550 mm while in HadCM3 model was in range of 450-650 mm. Maximum of precipitation changes were seen in the cities of Bandar Gaz and Maravetappe under prediction of HadCM3 and ECHO-G models, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ECHO-G
  • HadCM3
  • LARS-WG
  • Precipitation
  • Temperature

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