مدلسازی پویای سیستم سد مخزنی یامچی با اعمال الگوی بهینه کشت جهت تدوین سیاست بهره برداری

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد /محیط زیست، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز.

2 دکتری مهندسی/ آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز.

3 استاد دانشکده مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

چکیده
با توجه به افزایش مصارف آب، تاثیرات تغییر اقلیم و موقعیت جغرافیایی ایران، مساله مدیریت مخازن سدها بیش از پیش مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. در این تحقیق، بهره-برداری از مخزن سد یامچی (اردبیل)، به کمک مدل پویایی سیستم‌ها در محیط نرم افزار Vensim شبیه‌سازی شده است. در ادامه بر مبنای معیارهای مختلف از جمله آب مجازی، نقش محصول در تامین نیازهای عمومی، سود مالی، قابلیت انبار (از لحاظ زمانی) و نیاز آبی محصولات، الگوی بهینه کشت برای منطقه مورد مطالعه پیشنهاد گردیده است. سپس عملکرد سد، با اعمال سیاست مدیریتی الگوی کشت بهینه‌ در مدل پویایی سیستم سد یامچی و بر اساس سه شاخص آسیب‌پذیری، برگشت‌پذیری و اطمینان‌پذیری مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفته است .بر طبق نتایج حاصل، با اعمال سیاست الگوی بهینه کشت پیشنهادی، می‌توان کمبود آب را در مقایسه با روند بهره‌برداری کنونی در حدود 43 درصد کاهش داد. نتایج بدست آمده برای پایداری سیستم نیز، نشان‌دهنده افزایش شاخص‌های پایداری با اعمال الگوی بهینه کشت در مقایسه با شرایط فعلی می‌باشد و مقایسه نتایج نمایانگر ارزیابی موثر و کارآمد سیاست ارائه شده در تحقیق حاضر، در بهبود عملکرد مخزن سد می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

System Dynamics Modeling of Yamchi Reservoir (Iran) by Applying Optimum Cropping Pattern for Operation Policy Proposal

نویسندگان [English]

  • M.R Fotookian 1
  • N Safari 2
  • M Zarghami 3
1 M.Sc. Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Iran.
2 Ph.D. Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz, Iran.
3 Prof. Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Tabriz
چکیده [English]

Abstract
According to increase in water consumption, climate change impacts, and geography of Iran, the operation of reservoirs has become more important. In this study, Yamchi reservoir operation (Ardabil, Iran) is simulated by using system dynamics model in the Vensim software environment. Following that due to the virtual water concept, strategic role of products to supply public demands, more financial benefits, ability to storage (in term of time), and water requirement of products, the optimum cropping pattern is proposed. Hence, the reservoir operation applying the political management as the optimum cropping pat-tern in system dynamics model of Yamchi reservoir and based on three kinds of performance criteria including vulnerability, resiliency, and reliability, is assessed. The results show that applying this policy will decrease the water shortages to 43% in compare to the business-as-usual status. The results of sustainability analysis present the increase in sustainability indices by applying the optimal cropping pattern and comparison of the results indicated effective and practical assessment of the pro-posed policy in reservoir operation improvement.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • system dynamics
  • Optimum Cropping Pattern
  • virtual water
  • Yamchi dam
  • VENSIM

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