استخراج منحنی‌های عمق- مساحت- تداوم به‌منظور برآورد حداکثر بارش محتمل منطقه‌ای در استان فارس

نوع مقاله: یادداشت فنی (5 صفحه)

نویسندگان

1 استادیار/ بخش مهندسی آب. دانشکده کشاورزی. دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان. کرمان.ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد/ مهندسی منابع آب. دانشکده کشاورزی. دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان. کرمان. ایران

3 استادیار /بخش مهندسی آب. دانشکده کشاورزی. دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان.کرمان. ایران

چکیده

حداکثر بارش محتمل بزرگ‌ترین عمق بارش در یک تداوم معین و ممکن است. در این مطالعه، استخراج منحنی‌های عمق- مساحت- تداوم (DAD) جهت برآورد حداکثر بارش محتمل 24 ساعته (PMP24) با استفاده از دو نگرش آماری هرشفیلد و برآورد عامل فراوانی (km) مناسب در استان فارس مدنظر می‌باشد. به‌این‌منظور از داده‌های حداکثر باران 24‌ساعته ((P24)max) با دوره آماری 12 تا 61 ساله‌ی 52 ایستگاه واجد آمار طولانی‌مدت واقع در این استان استفاده گردید. مقادیر km در نگرش اول و دوم به‌ترتیب، در محدوده 4/18- 3/15 و 8/6- 6/1 و PMP24 متناظر در محدوده 850- 280 و 380- 112 میلی‌متر برآورد شدند. مقادیر PMP24 با دوره بازگشت‌های 50 و 100 سال در نگرش اول و دوم به‌ترتیب 771-714 و 350- 320 میلی‌متر محاسبه گردید. نتایج نشان‌دهنده کاهش 75 درصدی km نگرش دوم نسبت به نگرش اول در منطقه مطالعاتی می‌باشد. نسبت PMP24 به (P24)max در نگرش اول و دوم به‌ترتیب 4/7-6/2 و 7/2-4/1 به‌دست آمد. لذا اطمینان‌پذیری نگرش دوم نسبت به نگرش اول بیشتر می‌باشد. هم‌چنین نقشه‌های هم‌مقدار PMP24 در منطقه مطالعاتی برای دو نگرش با استفاده از مدل رقومی ارتفاع در محیط نرم‌افزاری ArcGIS 10.3 ترسیم و منحنی‌های DAD و کاهش سطح هریک از نگرش‌ها تعیین شدند. کاربرد این منحنی‌ها تبدیل PMP24 نقطه‌ای به منطقه‌ای را در استان فارس امکان‌پذیر می‌سازد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Derivation of Depth- Area- Duration curves for estimating areal Probable Maximum Precipitation in Fars province

نویسندگان [English]

  • B Bakhtiari 1
  • Z Jahandideh 2
  • K Qaderi 3
1 Assist-Professor of Shahid Bahonar University, Water engineering department, Kerman, Iran
2 MSc student in Water Resource Engineering, Shahid Bahonar University, Kerman, Iran
3 Assist-Professor of Shahid Bahonar University, Water engineering department, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

Probable Maximum Precipitation is the greatest depth of precipitation for a certain duration and possible. In this study, is considered derivation of Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) curves for estimating 24-h Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP24) by using two statistical Hershfield approaches and estimates the suitable frequency factor (Km) in Fars province. For this purpose the maximum 24-hour precipitation data ((P24)max) with a period of 12-61 years for 52 stations has a long-time data located in Fars province were used. The km values in the first and second approaches are between 15.3 to 18.4 and 1.6 to 6.8 and the corresponding PMP24 are between 280 to 850 and 112 to 380 mm was estimated, respectively. The PMP24 values for first and second approaches of 50 and 100 year return periods 714-771 and 320-350 mm was estimated, respectively. Results showed that the Km values in second approach is 75% lower than the Km for first approach., the ratio of PMP24 to (P24)max, in first and second approaches are between 2.6 to 7.4 and 1.4 to 2.7 were obtained, respectively. Therefore, the second approach is more reliable than the first approach. Also, the isohyet maps for PMP for two approaches over the study area using DEM in GIS 10.3 software were drawn and DAD and area reduction curves for each approach were determined. The use of these curves conversion point PMP24 values to areal in the Fars province is possible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Probable maximum precipitation (PMP)
  • Hershfield method
  • Area reduction curve
  • Frequency factor
  • Fars province

 

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