برآورد حداکثر بارش محتمل 24ساعته با دو نگرش آماری هرشفیلد در حوضه آبریز قره سو در استان گلستان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار /بخش مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد /مهندسی منابع آب و عضو انجمن پژوهشگران جوان، بخش مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

3 استادیار/ بخش مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

چکیده

حداکثر بارش محتمل (PMP) و حداکثر سیل محتمل (PMF) از مسائل مهم در طراحی سازه‌های آبی به شمار می‌آیند. یکی از مناسب‌ترین روش‌های آماری برآورد PMP روش هرشفیلد است. در این مطالعه حداکثر باران 24‌ساعته با استفاده از اطلاعات 12 تا 53 ساله شش ایستگاه باران‌سنجی و یک ایستگاه سینوپتیک واقع در حوضه آبریز قره‌سو در استان گلستان مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. به این منظور از دو روش آماری هرشفیلد (در دو نگرش استاندارد و تجدید نظر شده) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که مطابق نگرش اول، عامل فراوانی (Km) و حداکثر بارش محتمل 24‌ساعته (PMP24) به ترتیب در محدوده 18- 98/16 و 93/524- 07/335 میلی‌متر برآورد شد. در نگرش دوم مقدار Km و PMP24 به ترتیب در محدوده 26/5- 36/2 و 30/208- 22/118 میلی‌متر برآورد گردید. مقدار PMP24  با دوره بازگشت‌های متفاوت با استفاده از توزیع آماری گامبل محاسبه شد که مقدار PMP24  با دوره بازگشت‌های 50 و 100 سال به ترتیب 20/579 و 59/613 میلی‌متر در نگرش اول و 69/263 و 70/281 میلی‌متر در نگرش دوم به دست آمد. نسبت PMP24 به حداکثر باران 24‌ساعته به عنوان یک معیار مستقل از شرایط آب و هوایی برای مقایسه PMP24 در ایستگاه‌های مورد مطالعه استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که نگرش دوم هرشفیلد در مقایسه با نگرش اول آن در محدوده مورد مطالعه در حوضه قــره‌سو، پایدار‌تر است. سپس به‌منظور ترسیم منحنی‌های هم‌باران، گرادیان بارندگی، مورد بررسی قرار گرفت و به دلیل عدم معنی‌داری این رابطه، جهت رسم نقشه هم‌مقدار PMP24، روش معکوس وزنی فاصله (IDW) برای ترسیم منحنی ژرفا- پهنه- تداوم مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. با استفاده از این منحنی‌ها تبدیل PMP24نقطه‌ای به منطقه‌ای در منطقه مورد مطالعه در حوضه قره‌سو امکان‌پذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation Using Two Different Approaches of Hershfield’s Method over Qareh-Su Basin, Golestan province, Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • B. Bakhtiari 1
  • Z. Afzali Gorouh 2
  • K. Qaderi 3
1 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Dep., College of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
2 M.Sc. Student of Water Resources, Member of young researchers society, Water Engineering Dep., Engineering of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
3 Assistant Professor, Water Engineering Dep., College of Agriculture, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran
چکیده [English]

The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) are among the important measures in designing hydraulic structures. One of the most suitable statistical techniques for estimating PMP is Hershfield method. In this study the maximum 24 hours precipitation was evaluated using 12-53 years of data from 6 rain gauge stations and 1 synoptic station located in Qareh-su basin. For this goal two statistical methods of Hershfield (in two different approaches of standard and revised) were used. For the first approach, frequency factor and the PMP24 were found to vary in the range of 16.98 to 18 and 335.08 to 524.93 mm, respectively. The corresponding values for the second approach was 2.06 to 4.01 and 88.35 to 153.41 mm, respectively. Also the amount of PMP24 with 50 and 100 year return periods using Gumbel distribution were respectively calculated as 579.2 and 613.59 mm in the first approach and 263.69 and 281.7 mm in the second approach. As a criterion independent to the climate conditions, the ratio of PMP24 to the maximum of 24 hours precipitation was used for compare PMP in stations. The results indicated that the second approach was more stable for the Qareh-su basin. The Precipitation Gradientwas then investigated for drawing the isohyets maps which presented an insignificant. Therefore the Inverse Distance Weighted method was used to draw the iso-PMP maps and to determine the Depth-Area-Duration curves. Using these curves, conversion of point PMP24 to areal PMP24 over Qareh-su basin is Possible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Probable maximum precipitation (PMP)
  • Hershfield method
  • Frequency factor
  • Depth-Area-Duration Curve
  • Qareh-su Basin

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