مقایسه عملکرد روش‌های مختلف در بررسی روند تغییرات متغیرهای اقلیمی (مطالعه موردی: سد سفیدرود)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد/ مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و حمل و نقل، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان

2 استادیار / گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام

3 استادیار/ گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و حمل و نقل ، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان

چکیده

بررسی روند متغیرهای اقلیمی در حوزه‌های آبخیز می تواند منجر به اتخاذ رویکردهای واقع گرایانه تر در مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی منابع آبی در دسترس شود. در این تحقیق، روند تغییرات زمانی متغیرهای دبی جریان، بارش، تبخیر و دما در مقیاس ماهیانه، فصلی، سالانه در حوزه سد سفیدرود بررسی شده‌اند. بدین منظور از آزمون های پارامتریک رگرسیون و غیرپارامتریک من کندال تحت سه سناریو با فرضیات استقلال داده‌ها، پایستاری کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت بهره گرفته میشود. از آنجایکه در اکثر سری‌های زمانی هیدرولوژیکی وابستگی های سریالی و پدیده هارست مشاهده می شود، لازم است که آزمون من کندال برای اعمال اثر پایستاری کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت روی داده ها مورد بازبینی و اصلاح قرار گیرد. به منظور مقایسه نتایج حاصل از تحلیل روند، همگنی داده‌های متغیرهای اقلیمی به کمک آزمون های آماری انحرافات تجمعی، راست‌نمایی ورسلی و روش بیزین بررسی شدند. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل روند حاکی از وجود روند کاهشی مشهود و قابل توجه برای متغیر دبی جریان تحت تمامی آزمونها و فرضیات بوده‌اند. با توجه به مشاهده روندهای کاهشی برای بارش و دمای حداقل و افزایشی برای دماهای حداکثر، اثرگذاری پدیده تغییر اقلیم در سطح حوزه آبخیز مورد بررسی تا حد زیادی محتمل است. بررسی نتایج بدست آمده نشان می‌دهد که سریهای زمانی که ناهمگنی آنها در سطح معناداری بالایی تایید می‌شود، در اغلب موارد دارای روندهای کاهشی یا افزایشی در سطح معناداری بالایی نیز هستند. بنابراین، در صورت استفاده همزمان از ‌آزمون های روند و همگنی به منظور بررسی تغییرات متغیرهای اقلیمی، نتایج قابل اطمینان‌تری حاصل می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of Different Trend Analysis Methods for Hydro-Climatic Variables, a Case Study: Sefidroud Dam

نویسندگان [English]

  • P. Pishgah Hadian 1
  • E. Ehsanzadeh 2
  • R. Moeini 3
1 M. Sc. Dept. of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Transportation, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Assisstant Prof. Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Ilam, Ilam, Iran.
3 Assisstant Prof. Dept. of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Transportation, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Trends invesigation of climatic variables in a catchment can lead to more realistic approaches for water resources planning and management. In this paper, monthly, seasonal and annual trends of inflow, precipitation, evaporation and temperature are studied for Sefidroud dam. Therefore, a parametric test (Regression) and a nonparametric tset (Mann-Kendall) under three different scenarios of independence, short term persistence, and long term persistence are used. The assumption of dataset independency is one of the limitations of the Mann -Kendall test. Therefore, if hydro-climatic time series are characterized with short or long term persistence, this assumption is unacceptable and leads to unreliable results. Since, serial correlation and Hurst phenomenon are seen in most hydro-climatic time series, it is necessary to modify Mann-Kendall test for considering these effects. For comparison of trend analysis results, the homogeneity of hydro-climatic variables is studied by cumulative deviation test, Worsley Likelihood test, and the Bayesian procedure. Comparison of results indicates remarkable significant decreasing trends for inflow using different methods and assumptions. Furthermore, decreasing trends for precipitation and minimum temperature and increasing trends for maximum temperature indicate that hydro-climatology of the study area might be impacted by possible climate change. Obtained results also show that most time series with significant deacrising or increasing trends are also characterized with significant non-homogeneity. Therefore, simultaneous use of homogeneity and trend analysis tests for studying Hydro-climatic variables lead to more reliable results.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • mann-kendall test
  • Short term and long term persistence
  • Homogeneity test
  • regression analysis
  • Climate change

Ahmad I, Tang D, Wang T, Wang M, Wagan B (2015) Precipitation trends over time using Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests in Swat River Basin, Pakistan. Advances in Meteorology 2015:1-15

Alexandersson H (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. Journal of Climatology 6(6):661-675

Alizadeh A (2001) Principles of applied hydrology. Astan Ghodss Publishing, Mashad, 792p

Arnell NW, Reynard NS (1996) the effects of climate change due to global warming on river flows in Great Britain. Journal of Hydrology 183(3):397-424

Asakereh H, Doostkamian M (2014) Tempo-spatial changes of perceptible water in the atmosphere of Iran. Iran-Water Resources Research 10(1):72-86 (In Persian)

Azarakhshi M, Farzadmehr J, Eslah M, Sahabi H (2013) An investigation on trends of annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature in different climatologically regions of Iran. Journal of Range and Watershed Management 66(1):1- 16 (In Persian)

Azari M, Moradi HR, Saghafian B, Faramarzi M (2013) Assessment of hydrological effects of climate change in gourganroud river basin. Journal of Water and Soil 27(3):537-547 (In Persian)

Azizi G, Roushani M (2008) Using Mann-Kendall test to recognize of climate change in Caspian Sea southern coasts. Geographical Research Quarterly 64(40):13-28 (In Persian)

Buishand TA (1982) Some methods for testing the homogeneity of rainfall records. Journal of Hydrology 58(1):11-27

Burn DH, Elnur MAH (2002) Detection of hydrologic trends variability. Journal of Hydrology 255(1):107-122

Chernoff H, Zacks S (1964) Estimating the current mean of a normal distribution which is subjected to changes in time. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 35(3):999-1018

Climate Change (2001). Bio Brief#2: Climate Change, “gms-wga.org”

Dodangeh S, Soltani S, Sarhadi A (2010) Trend assessment of extream flows (low flow and flood) in Sefid-Roud basin. Jornal of Water and Soil Sience 15(58):215-230 (In Persian)

Ehsanzadeh E, Adamowski K (2010) Trends in timing of low stream flows in Canada: Impact of autocorrelation and long‐term persistence. Hydrological Processes 24(8):970-980

Farsadnia F, Rostami KM, Moghadamnia A (2012) Rainfall trend analysis of Mazandaran province using regional Mann-KendallL test. Iran-Water Resources Research 8(2):60-70 (In Persian)

Fathian F, Ghorbani MA, Dehghan Z (2014) Investigation and comparison of Hurst exponent estimation methods in trend and seasonality analysis of hydro-climatic variables in Urmia Lake bain (Case Study: Aji Chai sub-basin). Journal of Water and Soil 28(1):219- 229 (In Persian)

Gardner LA (1969) On detecting changes in the mean of normal variates. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 40(1):116-126

Georgiadi A (2000) the change of the hydrological cycle under the influence of global warming. Hydrology for the Water Management of Large River Basin. Proceedings of the Vienna Symposium, August 1991, IAHS Publ. 201p

Ghahreman B (2014) Two non-parametric trend tests applicable for long-memory process (Case study: Mashhad air temperature). Iran-Water Resources Research 9(3):14-23 (In Persian)

Gilan Regional Water Authority (2010) Water resources atlas report: Great sefidrood and Talesh-Anzali port river basins (In Persian)

Hajiabadi R, Zarqami M (2013) Multi objective operational management of Sefidrood dam with desilting and hydropower production enhancement approach. In: proc. of 12th Iranian Hydraulics conference, 29-30 October, Irrigation Engineering Management Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran (In Persian)

Hansen J, Lebedeff S (1987) Global trends of measured surface air temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (1984–2012) 92(D11):13345-13372

Hurst HE (1951) Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Transactions of American Society of Civil Engineering 116:770-808

Jones PD, Raper SCB, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Kelly PM, Wigley TML (1986a) Northern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations: 1851-1984. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 25(2):161-179

Jones PD, Raper SCB, Wigley TML (1986b) Southern Hemisphere surface air temperature variations: 1851-1984. Journal of climate and applied meteorology 25(9):1213-1230

Kendall MG (1948) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin & Co, London, 272p

Lettenmaier DP, Wood EF, Wallis JR (1994) Hydro-climatological trends in the continental United States, 1948-88. Journal of Climate 7(4): 586-607

Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society 13(3):245-259

Middelkoop H, Daamen K, Gellens D, Grabs W, Kwadijk JC, Lang H, Parmet BWAH, Schadler B, Schulla K, Wilke K (2001) Impact of climate change on hydrological regimes and water resources management in the Rhine basin. Climatic Change 49(1-2):105-128

Mirabbasi NR, Dinpazhouh Y (2010) Trend Analysis of Streamflow across the North West of Iran in Recent Three Decades. Journal of Water and Soil 24(4):757-768 (In Persian)

Modaresi F, Araghinezhad S, Ebrahimi K, Khyat KM (2010) Regional assessment of climate change using statistical tests: Case Study of Gorganroud-Gharehsou Basin. Journal of Water and Soil 24(3):469-476 (In Persian)

Pirnia A, Roshan MH, Solaimani K (2015) Investigation of precipitation and temperature changes in Caspian sea southern coasts and its comparison with changes in northern hemisphere and global scales. Journal of Watershed Management Research 6(10):90-100 (In Persian)

Rood SB, Samuelson GM, Weber JK, Wywrot KA (2005) Twentieth-century decline in stream flows from the hydrographic apex of North America. Journal of Hydrology 306(1):215-233

Rosenzweig C, Iglesias A, Yang XB, Epstein PR, Chivian E (2001) Climate change and extreme weather events; implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests. Global Change and Human Health 2(2):90-104

Sabziparvar AA, Shadmani M (2011) Trends analysis of reference evapotranspiration rates by using the Mann-Kendall and Spearman tests in arid regions of Iran. Journal of Water and Soil 25(4):823-834 (In Persian)

Water Research Institute (1970) Sefidroud’s reservoir sediment report (In Persian).

Wikipedia: The free encyclopedia. (2015, October 14). FL: Wikimedia Foundation, Inc. Retrieved January 25, 2016, from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sefīd-Rūd

World Climate Program (1988). Analyzing long time series of hydrological data with respect of climate variability and change. WCAP report no. 3, WMO/TD no.224

Worsley KJ (1979) On the likelihood ratio test for a shift in location of normal populations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 74(366a):365-367

Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrological Processes 16(9):1807-1829

Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney BOB (2003) Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation. Hydrological Sciences Journal 48(1):51-63

Zareh Abyaneh H, Bayat M, Yazdani V (2011) Trend analysis of annual and seasonal temperature, precipitation and drought in Hamedan province. Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 1(3):47-58 (In Persian)

Zarezadeh M, Morid S, Salavitabar A, Madani K (2012) Evaluating the impacts of climate change and new developments on water scarcity in Iran's Qezelozan-Sefidrood river basin. Iranian Journal of lrrigation and drainage 6(2):93-104 (In Persian).