مقایسه عملکرد روش‌های مختلف در بررسی روند تغییرات متغیرهای اقلیمی (مطالعه موردی: سد سفیدرود)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد/ مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و حمل و نقل، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان

2 استادیار / گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام

3 استادیار/ گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشکده مهندسی عمران و حمل و نقل ، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان

چکیده

بررسی روند متغیرهای اقلیمی در حوزه‌های آبخیز می تواند منجر به اتخاذ رویکردهای واقع گرایانه تر در مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی منابع آبی در دسترس شود. در این تحقیق، روند تغییرات زمانی متغیرهای دبی جریان، بارش، تبخیر و دما در مقیاس ماهیانه، فصلی، سالانه در حوزه سد سفیدرود بررسی شده‌اند. بدین منظور از آزمون های پارامتریک رگرسیون و غیرپارامتریک من کندال تحت سه سناریو با فرضیات استقلال داده‌ها، پایستاری کوتاه مدت و بلندمدت بهره گرفته میشود. از آنجایکه در اکثر سری‌های زمانی هیدرولوژیکی وابستگی های سریالی و پدیده هارست مشاهده می شود، لازم است که آزمون من کندال برای اعمال اثر پایستاری کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت روی داده ها مورد بازبینی و اصلاح قرار گیرد. به منظور مقایسه نتایج حاصل از تحلیل روند، همگنی داده‌های متغیرهای اقلیمی به کمک آزمون های آماری انحرافات تجمعی، راست‌نمایی ورسلی و روش بیزین بررسی شدند. نتایج حاصل از تحلیل روند حاکی از وجود روند کاهشی مشهود و قابل توجه برای متغیر دبی جریان تحت تمامی آزمونها و فرضیات بوده‌اند. با توجه به مشاهده روندهای کاهشی برای بارش و دمای حداقل و افزایشی برای دماهای حداکثر، اثرگذاری پدیده تغییر اقلیم در سطح حوزه آبخیز مورد بررسی تا حد زیادی محتمل است. بررسی نتایج بدست آمده نشان می‌دهد که سریهای زمانی که ناهمگنی آنها در سطح معناداری بالایی تایید می‌شود، در اغلب موارد دارای روندهای کاهشی یا افزایشی در سطح معناداری بالایی نیز هستند. بنابراین، در صورت استفاده همزمان از ‌آزمون های روند و همگنی به منظور بررسی تغییرات متغیرهای اقلیمی، نتایج قابل اطمینان‌تری حاصل می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of Different Trend Analysis Methods for Hydro-Climatic Variables, a Case Study: Sefidroud Dam

نویسندگان [English]

  • P. Pishgah Hadian 1
  • E. Ehsanzadeh 2
  • R. Moeini 3
1 M. Sc. Dept. of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Transportation, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran.
2 Assisstant Prof. Dept. of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Ilam, Ilam, Iran.
3 Assisstant Prof. Dept. of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Transportation, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Trends invesigation of climatic variables in a catchment can lead to more realistic approaches for water resources planning and management. In this paper, monthly, seasonal and annual trends of inflow, precipitation, evaporation and temperature are studied for Sefidroud dam. Therefore, a parametric test (Regression) and a nonparametric tset (Mann-Kendall) under three different scenarios of independence, short term persistence, and long term persistence are used. The assumption of dataset independency is one of the limitations of the Mann -Kendall test. Therefore, if hydro-climatic time series are characterized with short or long term persistence, this assumption is unacceptable and leads to unreliable results. Since, serial correlation and Hurst phenomenon are seen in most hydro-climatic time series, it is necessary to modify Mann-Kendall test for considering these effects. For comparison of trend analysis results, the homogeneity of hydro-climatic variables is studied by cumulative deviation test, Worsley Likelihood test, and the Bayesian procedure. Comparison of results indicates remarkable significant decreasing trends for inflow using different methods and assumptions. Furthermore, decreasing trends for precipitation and minimum temperature and increasing trends for maximum temperature indicate that hydro-climatology of the study area might be impacted by possible climate change. Obtained results also show that most time series with significant deacrising or increasing trends are also characterized with significant non-homogeneity. Therefore, simultaneous use of homogeneity and trend analysis tests for studying Hydro-climatic variables lead to more reliable results.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • mann-kendall test
  • Short term and long term persistence
  • Homogeneity test
  • regression analysis
  • Climate change
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