اثر تغییر اقلیم بر متغیرهای سالانه هواشناسی و هیدرولوژیک حوضه سیروان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار/ گروه مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران

2 استادیار/ دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد سنندج، گروه مهندسی آب، سنندج، ایران

چکیده

در این تحقیق اثر تغییر اقلیم بر متغیرهای هواشناسی و جریان سالانه حوضه سیروان با منظور نمودن عدم قطعیت‌های سناریوهای انتشار و ساختار مدل‌های هیدرولوژیکی، ارزیابی شده است. سناریو‌های آینده‌ی بارش، بیشینه دمای روزانه و کمینه دمای روزانه مدل اقلیمیCGCM3 برای حوضه آبریز سیروان به روش عامل تغییرات ریز مقیاس شده است و اثر تغییر اقلیم بر این متغیرها و تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل حوضه ارزیابی شده است. برای شبیه‌سازی جریان رودخانه، بیست مدل هیدرولوژیکی سالانه مورد آزمون قرار گرفت و دو مدل (با عناوین M8 و ICARLike) که بهترین عملکرد را داشتند، برگزیده شدند. جریان سالانه حوضه آبریز سیروان توسط دو مدل هیدرولوژیکی برای سناریوهای آینده (65-2036) و دوره‌ی پایه (2000-1971) شبیه‌سازی شد و اثر تغییر اقلیم بر متغیرهای هیدرولوژیک حوضه ارزیابی شد. عدم قطعیت‌ها با استفاده از سه سناریوی A1B، A2، و B1 و دو مدل هیدرولوژیکی تحلیل شد. نتایج حاکی از افزایش دما و تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل، کاهش بارش و جریان سالانه حوضه سیروان است. با وجود آنکه دامنه‌ی عدم قطعیت‌های سناریوهای انتشار و ساختار مدل‌های هیدرولوژیکی قابل توجه است، تحت همه حالات مورد بررسی، جریان سالانه حوضه سیروان در اقلیم آینده کاهش یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate Change impact on annual meteorological and hydrological variables of the Sirvan Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • M.R. Khazaei 1
  • M. Byzedi 2
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Payame Noor University, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch, Sanandaj, Iran
چکیده [English]

In this paper, climate change impacts on annual meteorological variables and river-flow of the Sirvan Basin are assessed. Future scenarios of CGCM3 (including annual precipitation, mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures) for A1B, A2, and B1 scenarios are downscaled using Change Factors method for the Sirvan Basin. Climate change impacts on these variables and on the potential evapotranspiration of the basin are assessed. For hydrologic simulation of the river-flow of the basin, 20 annual hydrologic models are tested and finally the two best models (namely M8 and ICARLike) are employed. Then annual river-flow of the Sirvan Basin for current and future climate conditions is simulated; and climate change impacts on hydrologic variables of the basin are assessed. It is projected that the temperature and potential evapotranspiration will be increased and precipitation and river-flow will be decreased in the Sirvan Basin in the future. Despite importance of uncertainties related to the emission scenarios and hydrologic models, under all of investigated future scenarios, it is expected that the stream-flow of the basin will be reduced in the future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Sirvan River Basin
  • Hydrological simulation
  • Uncertainty
  • Potential Eevapotranspiration

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