مقایسه و ارزیابی منابع مختلف عدم قطعیت در مطالعه اثر تغییراقلیم بر رواناب حوضه‌های نیمه خشک (مطالعه موردی: حوضه رودخانه اعظم-هرات یزد)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب/ گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه تهران، پردیس ابوریحان

2 دانشیار /گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، پردیس ابوریحان، دانشگاه تهران، پاکدشت

چکیده

تحقیق حاضر تأثیر پدیده تغییراقلیم بر رواناب حوضه رودخانه اعظم هرات ، در دوره 2030-2015 میلادی با لحاظ نمودن خطای مربوط به پارامترهای تنظیم مدل بارش-رواناب و عدم قطعیت دو مدل بارش-رواناب IHACRES و HEC-HMS ، سناریوهای اقلیمی A1B، A2 و B1 حاصل از مدل‌های AOGCM و دو مدل ریزمقیاس نمایی آماری LARS-WG و SDSM بررسی می‌کند. ابتدا ضمن واسنجی و صحت‌سنجی مدل‌های بارش-رواناب، به آنالیز حساسیت پارامترهای این مدل‌ها پرداخته شد. در ادامه با ریزگردانی داده‌های اقلیمی 15 مدل AOGCM و سه سناریو اقلیمی توسط LARS-WG و معرفی هر یک از آن‌ها به مدل‌های بارش-رواناب محدوده تغییرات رواناب منطقه در دوره مذکور مشخص گردید. نتایج نشان داد دمای منطقه در دوره آتی افزایشی تا 5/1 درجه سلسیوس خواهد داشت و میزان بارش و توزیع زمانی آن تغییر می‌کند. طبق هر سه سناریوی انتشار و مدل‌های هیدرولوژیکی، رواناب در ماه‌های ژانویه و دسامبر افزایش و در ماه مارس، اکتبر و نوامبر کاهش می‌یابد. نتایج نشان داد که عدم قطعیت مربوط به مدل‌های هیدرولوژیکی در اکثر ماه‌ها بسیار بالاتر از مدل‌های AOGCM و سناریوهای انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای است که دلیل آن وجود پارامترهای حساس در ساختار مدل‌های بارش-رواناب است. برای بررسی عدم قطعیت روش‌های ریزمقیاس نمایی، داده‌های اقلیمی مدل HadCM3-A2 با دو مدل LARS-WG و SDSM ریزمقیاس شد. نتایج نشان داد، عدم قطعیت مدل‌های هیدرولوژیکی بسیار بزرگتر از روش‌های ریزمقیاس نمایی و عدم قطعیت مدل‌های AOGCM بزرگتر از سناریوهای انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison and Evaluation of Different Sources of Uncertainty in the Study of Climate Change Impact on Runoff in Semi-arid Basins (Case study: Azam Harat River Basin)

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Yaghobi 1
  • A. Massah Bavani 2
1 M.Sc. Graduate, Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Abouraihan, University of Tehran, Pakdasht, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Science and Engineering, College of Abouraihan, University of Tehran, Pakdasht, Iran
چکیده [English]

Present study assess the impact of climate change on the AZAM-HARAT River basin runoff in the 2015-2030 period considering the sources of uncertainty in adjustment of model parameters for two rainfall-runoff models of IHACRES and HEC-HMS, as well as A1B, A2 and B1 greenhouse gasses emission scenarios of AOGCM models, and LARS-WG and SDSM downscaling models. First in calibration and verification of rainfall-runoff models, sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was done. Then the climatic variables of 15 AOGCM models and climatic scenario were downscaled using LARS-WG model and these data were introduced to each of the hydrological models to determine the runoff variation ranges. Results showed that the temperature in the future period will increase about 1.5 ̊C and also the amount and distribution of the rainfall will vary greatly. These variations in rainfall will result in changes in the runoff. The results showed that the uncertainty related to hydrological models in some months is higher than AOGCM models and greenhouse gases emission scenarios which is due to the critical parameters in the structure of the hydrological models. To assess downscaling uncertainty, data of HadCM3-A2 model were downscaled using LARS-WG and SDSM models. The results showed that the uncertainty of hydrological models is much greater than that in the downscaling methods. It is also shown that the uncertainties in the AOGCM models are larger than greenhouse gases emissions scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • runoff
  • Hydrological models
  • Uncertainty
  • Statistical Downscaling

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