تدوین مدل تخصیص بهینه منابع آب زیرزمینی با لحاظ تعاملات ذی‌نفعان: کاربرد مدل های چانه زنی بازگشتی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته‌ی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی عمران / دانشگاه شیراز

2 استادیار /بخش مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشکده‌ مهندسی، دانشگاه شیراز

3 استاد /بخش مهندسی عمران و محیط‌زیست، دانشکده‌ مهندسی، دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

در دهه ‌های اخیر استفاده از مدل‌ های رفع اختلاف در زمینه مدیریت منابع آب از جمله آب‌ های زیرزمینی به عنوان راه حلی مناسب برای لحاظ تضاد‌ها و تعاملات بین ذی‌نفعان درگیر و در نتیجه رسیدن به راه‌حل‌های بهینه قابل اجرا، رواج چشمگیری داشته ‌است. در این تحقیق، با استفاده از تلفیق مدل‌های شبیه‌ ساز‌-‌بهینه‌ سازی بهره‌ برداری از منابع آب زیرزمینی و مدل‌های چانه‌زنی بازگشتی، ضمن توجه به مطلوبیت‌ های طرف‌های درگیر و معیارهای اجتماعی از جمله عدالت، بهترین سیاست‌های تخصیص تعیین شده است. برای تعیین منحنی تعامل بین اهداف متضاد، مدل بهینه‌ ساز چند‌هدفه NSGA-II با فرامدل شبیه‌ساز M5P که با سری اطلاعات ورودی-خروجی حاصله از اجرای مکرر مدل MODFLOW آموزش و صحت‌سنجی شده، تلفیق گردید. از روش مونت کارلو برای تولید پایگاه داده جهت آموزش و صحت‌سنجی فرامدل‌ به ازای مقادیر مختلف پمپاژ استفاده شد. به دلیل ماهیت چندهدفه بودن مسأله حاضر، مدل‌های‌‌ چانه‌ زنی بازگشتی برای انتخاب نقطه مورد توافق روی منحنی تعامل بین اهداف به‌کار رفته است. کارآیی ساختار پیشنهادی با استفاده از اطلاعات آبخوان دشت داریان در استان فارس، مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج حاصله نشان می‌دهد اعمال سیاست بهینه تخصیص حاصل از مدل چانه‌ زنی بازگشتی با هم‌آرایی موجب کاهش %54 برداشت از آبخوان و افزایش 2/4 متری سطح تراز آبخوان می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing an Optimal Groundwater Allocation Model Considering Stakeholder Interactions; Application of Fallback Bargaining Models

نویسندگان [English]

  • M.R. Alizadeh 1
  • M.R. Nikoo 2
  • Gh.R. Rakhshandehrou 3
1 M.Sc. Student, Department of Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering Division, Shiraz University,شیراز, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering Division, Shiraz University, شیراز, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering Division, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran
چکیده [English]

In last few decades conflict-resolution models are being increasingly used in water resource management for cases such as the groundwater problems as an appropriate approach to consider the oppositions and trade-offs between the stakeholders involved in the conflict and to reach to an applicable optimal resolution. In this paper, by integrating simulation-optimization models of groundwater exploitation and bargaining methods, the optimal allocation scenarios are derived taking into account the preferences of the stakeholders and social criteria such as justice. Trade-off Pareto front between the rival objectives was computed through linking the NSGA-II multi-objective optimization model and M5P meta model which was trained and validated based on MODFLOW simulation results. Monte-Carlo method was used to develop a database for training and validating meta models for different allocation scenarios. Considering multi-objective nature of the problem, the best solutions on Pareto fronts were selected using fallback bargaining models. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology was verified in a case study performed on Daryan aquifer, Fars province, Iran. Results indicated that the total groundwater withdrawal after applying the optimal scenarios of allocation was reduced approximately 56% which resulted in the mean water level uplift of 4.2 meters in the aquifer

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Water Resources Management
  • Fallback Bargaining
  • NSGA-II optimization model
  • M5P simulation meta model
  • MODFLOW

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