مواجهه با عدم‌قطعیت در مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله مروری

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار مهندسی سیستم و خدمات، دانشگاه صنعتی دلفت، دلفت، هلند.

چکیده

مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی در محیطی پویا و دارای عدم‌قطعیت بالا به امری چالش‌برانگیز تبدیل شده است. عدم‌قطعیت‌های متعدد این سیستم‌ها، سیاست‌گذاری، مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی صحیح آن‌ها را به امری دشوار تبدیل کرده است. رویکردهای فنی به تنهایی توانایی لحاظ کردن عدم‌قطعیت‌های عمیق در مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی را دارا نیستند. عدم‌قطعیت عمیق، به سادگی قابل مرتفع کردن نیست؛ زیرا مربوط به سطوح بالای حکمرانی و سیاست‌گذاری است و به عبارت دیگر افراد مسئول، اجماع نظری کمی بر روی مؤلفه‌های مختلف سیستم دارند. بر این اساس در مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی ضروری است رویکردی اتخاذ شود که توانایی درنظر گرفتن عدم‌قطعیت‌های مختلف را داشته باشد. هدف از این مقاله، تبیین و تحلیل چهار رویکرد‌ تاب‌آوری، استواری، انعطاف‌پذیری و سازگاری در مواجهه و مدیریت عدم‌قطعیت‌های عمیق و بررسی کاربرد آن‌ها در سیستم‌های درهم‌تنیده آبی است. دراین مقاله با استفاده از روش توصیفی- تطبیقی و با جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از منابع کتابخانه‌ای به گردآوری ویژگی‌های رویکردهای مذکور و مقایسه آن‌ها با یکدیگر پرداخته شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که رویکرد سازگاری در مقایسه با سایر رویکرد‌ها، توانایی مناسب‌تری برای استفاده در حکمرانی و مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی با هدف تطبیق یافتن خودجوش با تغییرات و همچنین توانایی حفظ مسیر اصلی سیستم را دارا است. همچنین، باید به این نکته توجه داشت که نتایج کسب شده به معنای این نیست که سایر رویکردها در مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی کارآیی ندارند. سایر رویکردها نیز با توجه به ویژگی‌های ذاتی آن‌ها می‌توانند در مدیریت بخش‌های مختلف سیستم‌های آبی بکار گرفته شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Dealing with Uncertainty in Water Systems Management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Behavar Deylami 1
  • Hojjat Mianabadi 2
  • Amineh Ghorbani 3
1 M.Sc. Graduate, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
چکیده [English]

Managing water systems in a dynamic and highly uncertain environment has become a challenge. Multiple uncertainties have made the management of these systems a relatively difficult task. Technical approaches on their own, do not have the ability to address deep uncertainties in the management of water systems. Deep uncertainty cannot be easily remedied because it is related to high levels of governance and policy-making. In other words, decision makers have little theoretical consensus on the various components of the system. This reveals the necessity of adopting approaches which are capable of taking various types of uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to explain and analyze the four approaches of resilience, robustness, flexibility, and adaptation in dealing with and managing deep uncertainties and to investigate their application in coupled human-natural water systems. In this article, using the descriptive-comparative method and literature review, the characteristics of the mentioned approaches have been collected and compared with each other. Finally, it was concluded that the adaptation approach, compared to other approaches, has a better ability to be used in water systems governance and management. This does not mean that other approaches are not effective in the management of such systems and, due to their inherent attributes, they can be used in the management of various parts of water systems.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Uncertainty
  • Resilience
  • Robustness
  • Flexibility
  • Adaptation
Adger WN (2000) Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Wiley Online Library 90(4):738–758
Adger WN, Arnell NW, and Tompkins EL (2005) Successful adaptation to climate change across scales. Global Environmental change, Elsevier 15(2):77–86
Adger WN and Kelly PM (1999) Social vulnerability to climate change and the architecture of entitlements. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. Springer 4(3–4):253–266
Aghaie V, Alizadeh H, and Afshar A (2020) Emergence of social norms in the cap-and-trade policy: An agent-based groundwater market. Journal of Hydrology 588:125057
Allen P (2001) What is complexity science? Knowledge of the limits to knowledge. Emergence 3(1):24–42
Anderies JM (2015) Managing variance: Key policy challenges for the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, National Acad Sciences 112(47):14402–14403
Andersson Sköld Y, Thorsson S, Rayner D, Lindberg F, Janhäll S, Jonsson A, Moback U, Bergman R, and Granberg M (2015) An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas. Climate Risk Management 7:31–50
Anvarifar F (2017) Towards flexibility in the design and management of multifunctional flood defences. Delft University of Technology
Averch H (1990) Private markets and public intervention: A primer for policy designers. University of Pittsburgh Pre
Basupi I and Kapelan Z (2015) Evaluating flexibility in water distribution system design under future demand uncertainty. Journal of Infrastructure Systems 21(2):04014034
Bateson G (1972) Steps to an ecology of mind: Collected essays in anthropology, psychiatry, evolution, and epistemology. University of Chicago Press
Berkes F, Colding J, and Folke C (2008) Navigating social-ecological systems: Building resilience for complexity and change. Cambridge University Press
Berkhout F, Hertin J, and Gann DM (2006) Learning to adapt: Organisational adaptation to climate change impacts. Climatic Change 78(1):135–156
Biswas AK and Tortajada C (2011) Water quality management: An introductory framework. International Journal of Water Resources Development, Taylor & Francis 27(1):5–11
Brooks N (2003) Vulnerability, risk and adaptation: A conceptual framework. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper 38(38):1–16
Brooks N, Grist N, and Brown K (2009) Development futures in the context of climate change: Challenging the present and learning from the past. Development Policy Review 27(6):741–765
Carpenter S, Walker B, Anderies JM, and Abel N (2001) From metaphor to measurement: Resilience of what to what? Ecosystems 4(8):765–781
Carpenter SR, Folke C, Scheffer M, and Westley F (2009) Resilience: Accounting for the noncomputable. Ecology and Society, JSTOR 14(1)
Chalupnik MJ, Wynn DC and Clarkson PJ (2013) Comparison of ilities for protection against uncertainty in system design. Journal of Engineering Design, Taylor & Francis 24(12):814–829
Chen S and Gong B (2021) Response and adaptation of agriculture to climate change: Evidence from China. Journal of Development Economics 148:102557
Davoudi S, Shaw K, Haider LJ, Quinlan AE, Peterson GD, Wilkinson C, Fünfgeld H, McEvoy D, Porter L, and Davoudi S (2012) Resilience: A bridging concept or a dead end? “Reframing” Resilience: Challenges for planning theory and practice interacting traps: Resilience assessment of a pasture management system in northern Afghanistan Urban Resilience: What does it mean in plannig practice. Planning theory & practice Taylor & Francis 13(2):299–333
De Leeuw ACJ (1976) The control paradigm as an aid for understanding and designing organizations. TH Eindhove, Vakgr, organisatiekunde: rapport. Technische Hogeschool Eindhoven 36
de Neufville R, de Weck O, Frey D, Hastings D, Larson R, Simchi-Levi D, Oye K, Weigel A, and Welsch R (2004) Engineering systems monograph. Engineering systems symposium
De Ridder HAJ (1994) Design & construct of complex civil engineering systems: A new approach to organization and contracts. Delft University Press
Demirel HC, De Ridder HAJ, and Hertogh M (2013) Dynamic contracting: An asset management tool in controlling infrastructure maintenance activities. 92nd Annual Meeting Transportation Research Board, Washington, USA, 13-17 January 2013; Authors version
Demos TJ (1969) The politics of sustainability: Art and ecology. in Radical Nature: Art and Architecture for a Changing Planet, 1969–2009, ed. Francesco Manacorda and Ariella Yedgar (London: Barbican Art Gallery, 2009), 17-30. Reprinted in Theory in Contemporary Art since 1985, ed., Zoya Kocur and Simon Leung (London: Wiley-Blackwell, 2012), 466-485
Dessai S, Hulme M, Lempert R, and Pielke Jr R (2009) Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changing climate? Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, Wiley Online Library 90(13):111–112
Difrancesco KN and Tullos DD (2015) Assessment of flood management systems’ flexibility with application to the Sacramento River basin, California, USA. International Journal of River Basin Management 13(3):271–284
Dossou KMR and Glehouenou-Dossou B (2007) The vulnerability to climate change of Cotonou (Benin) the rise in sea level. Environment and Urbanization, SAGE Publications Sage UK: London, England 19(1):65–79
Downing TE (1991) Vulnerability to hunger in Africa: A climate change perspective. Global Environmental Change 1(5):365–380
Fankhauser S, Smith JB, and Tol RSJ (1999) Weathering climate change: some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions. Ecological Economics 30(1):67–78
Fischbach JR (2010) Managing New Orleans flood risk in an uncertain future using non-structural risk mitigation. Ph.D. Dissertation, RAND Graduate School
Fletcher SM (2018) Learning and flexibility for water supply infrastructure planning under diverse uncertainties. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Folke C (2006) Resilience: The emergence of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change 16(3):253–267
Folke C (2016) Resilience (Republished). Ecology and Society 21(4):art44
Folke C, Carpenter SR, Walker B, Scheffer M, Chapin T, and Rockström J (2010) Resilience thinking: Integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability. Ecology and Society, JSTOR 15(4)
Foltz RC (2002) Iran’s water crisis: Cultural, political, and ethical dimensions. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics. Springer 15(4):357–380
Fricke E and Schulz AP (2005) Design for changeability (DfC): Principles to enable changes in systems throughout their entire lifecycle. Systems Engineering 8(4)
Futuyma DJ (1979) Evolutionary biology. 565 pp. Sunderland, Mass: Sinauer Associates
Gemenne F and Blocher J (2017) How can migration serve adaptation to climate change? Challenges to fleshing out a policy ideal. The Geographical Journal 183(4):336–347
Gersonius B (2012) The resilience approach to climate adaptation applied for flood risk. IHE Delft Institute for Water Education
Gersonius B, Ashley R, Pathirana A, and Zevenbergen C (2013) Climate change uncertainty: Building flexibility into water and flood risk infrastructure. Climatic Change. Springer 116(2):411–423
Gheisi A, Shabani S, and Naser G (2015) Flexibility ranking of water distribution system designs under future mechanical and hydraulic uncertainty. Procedia Engineering 119:1202–1211
Goulter IC, Awumah K, and Bhatt S (1992) Optimising water distribution network design using entropy surrogates for network reliability. Entropy and Energy Dissipation in Water Resources 239–259
Groves DG (2005) New methods for identifying robust long-term water resources management strategies for California. Ph.D. Dissertation, Pardee RAND Graduate School, Santa Monica, CA, USA
Groves DG and Lempert RJ (2007) A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios. Global Environmental Change 17:73–85
Hall JW, Lempert RJ, Keller K, Hackbarth A, Mijere C, and McInerney DJ (2012) Robust climate policies under uncertainty: A comparison of robust decision making and info-gap methods. Risk Analysis: An International Journal. Wiley Online Library 32(10):1657–1672
Hallegatte S (2009) Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change. Global Environmental Change 19(2):240–247
Hallegatte S, Shah A, Lempert R, Brown C, and Gill S (2012) Investment decision making under deep uncertainty-application to climate change. The World Bank
Hanak E (2011) Managing California’s water: from conflict to reconciliation. Public Policy Instit. of CA
Hashimoto T, Loucks DP, and Stedinger JR (1982) Reliability, resiliency, robustness, and vulnerability criteria for water resource systems. Water Resources Research RR-82-040, Reprinted from Water Resources Research18 (1)
Hjorth P and Madani K (2014) Sustainability monitoring and assessment: New challenges require new thinking. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 140(2):133–135
Holling CS (1973) Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 4(1):1–23
Holling CS and Gunderson LH (2002) Panarchy: Understanding transformations in human and natural systems. Washington, DC: Island Press
Husdal J (2008) Supply chain risk: The dark side of Supply Chain Management. Unpublished Guest Lecture, Molde University College, Retrieved February 28, 2009, from http://husdal. com/2008/11/12/supply-chain-risk/
IPCC (2007) IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
IPCC (2018) Global warming of 1.5°C. Report
Islam S and Susskind L (2018) Using complexity science and negotiation theory to resolve boundary-crossing water issues. Journal of Hydrology 562:589–598
Islam S and Susskind LE (2012) Water diplomacy: A negotiated approach to managing complex water networks. Routledge
Janssen MA (2006) Historical institutional analysis of social-ecological systems. Journal of Institutional Economics 2(02):127
Janssen MA, Anderies JM, and Ostrom E (2007) Robustness of social-ecological systems to spatial and temporal variability. Society & Natural Resources 20(4):307–322
Kasprzyk JR, Nataraj S, Reed PM, and Lempert RJ (2013) Many objective robust decision making for complex environmental systems undergoing change. Environmental Modelling & Software 42:55–71
Keefe R (2012) Reconsidering California transport policies: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in an uncertain future. The Pardee RAND Graduate School
Kitano H (2002) Systems biology: A brief overview. American Association for the Advancement of Science 295(5560):1662–1664
Klein RJT, Nicholls RJ, and Thomalla F (2003) Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept? Global Environmental Change part B: Environmental Hazards, Taylor & Francis 5(1):35–45
Klijn F, Mens MJP, and Asselman N (2014) Robustness analysis for flood risk management planning: On risk-based decision making beyond simple economic reasoning, exemplified for the Meuse River (Netherlands). 6th International Conference on Flood Management (ICFM6), Sao Paulo, Brazil
Kricheldorf HR (2016) Getting it right in science and medicine. Cham: Springer International Publishing
Ku A (1995) Modelling uncertainty in electricity capacity planning. University of London 1995
Kumar N, Poonia V, Gupta BB, and Goyal MK (2021) A novel framework for risk assessment and resilience of critical infrastructure towards climate change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 165:120532
Kundzewicz ZW (1999) Flood protection-sustainability issues. Hydrological Sciences Journal, Taylor & Francis 44(4):559–571
Kwakkel JH, Haasnoot M, and Walker WE (2015) Developing dynamic adaptive policy pathways: a computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world. Climatic Change 132(3):373–386
Larijani KM (2005) Irans water crisis; inducers, challenges and counter-measures. Louvain-la-Neuve: European Regional Science Association (ERSA)
Lempert RJ and Groves DG (2010) Identifying and evaluating robust adaptive policy responses to climate change for water management agencies in the American west. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(6):960–974
Lempert RJ, Popper SW, and Bankes SC (2003) Shaping the next one hundred years: New methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis. Rand, Santa Monica, CA
Lempert RJ and Schlesinger ME (2000) Robust strategies for abating climate change. Climatic Change 45(3):387–401
Lempert RJ, Schlesinger ME, and Bankes SC (1996) When we don’t know the costs or the benefits: Adaptive strategies for abating climate change. Climatic Change 33(2):235–274
Lempert RJ, Sriver RL, and Keller K (2012) Characterizing uncertain sea level rise projections to support investment decisions. California Energy Commission
Levin SA and Lubchenco J (2008) Resilience, robustness, and marine ecosystem-based management. Bioscience, American Institute of Biological Sciences 58(1):27–32
Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, Pell AN, Deadman P, Kratz T, Lubchenco J, … Taylor WW (2007) Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317(5844):1513–1516
Loonen RCGM, Trčka M, Cóstola D, and Hensen JLM (2013) Climate adaptive building shells: State-of-the-art and future challenges. Renewable and sustainable Energy Reviews 25:483–493
Madani K (2014) Water management in Iran: What is causing the looming crisis? Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 4(4):315–328
Madani K (2019) The value of extreme events: What doesn’t exterminate your water system makes it more resilient. Journal of Hydrology 575:269–272
Mandal U, Sena DR, Dhar A, Panda SN, Adhikary PP, and Mishra PK (2021) Assessment of climate change and its impact on hydrological regimes and biomass yield of a tropical river basin. Ecological Indicators 126:107646
Martens C, Hickler T, Davis‐Reddy C, Engelbrecht F, Higgins SI, Maltitz GP, Midgley GF, Pfeiffer M, and Scheiter S (2021) Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies. Global Change Biology 27(2):340–358
Matalas NC and Fiering MB (1977) Water resources systems planning, Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply, 99--110. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC
McConnell JB (2007) A life-cycle flexibility framework for designing, evaluating and managing" complex" real options: Case studies in urban transportation and aircraft systems. Citeseer
McDonald J and Styles MC (2014) Legal strategies for adaptive management under climate change. Journal of Environmental law. Oxford University Press 26(1):25–53
McPhearson T, Andersson E, Elmqvist T, and Frantzeskaki N (2015) Resilience of and through urban ecosystem services. Ecosystem Services 12:152–156
Mehryar S and Surminski S (2021) National laws for enhancing flood resilience in the context of climate change: Potential and shortcomings. Climate Policy 21(2):133–151
Mengistu D, Bewket W, Dosio A, and Panitz H-J (2021) Climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Blue Nile (Abay) River Basin, Ethiopia. Journal of Hydrology 592:125614
Mens MJP (2015) System robustness analysis in support of flood and drought risk management. IOS Press
Merchant C (2015) Autonomous nature: Problems of prediction and control from ancient times to the scientific revolution. Routledge
Ming B, Liu P, Guo S, Cheng L, Zhou Y, Gao S, and Li H (2018) Robust hydroelectric unit commitment considering integration of large-scale photovoltaic power: A case study in China. Applied Energy 228:1341–1352
Mycoo MA (2014) Autonomous household responses and urban governance capacity building for climate change adaptation: Georgetown, Guyana. Urban Climate 9:134–154
Nelson DR, Adger WN, and Brown K (2007) Adaptation to environmental change: Contributions of a resilience framework. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 32(1):395–419
Norizan NZA, Hassan N, and Yusoff MM (2021) Strengthening flood resilient development in malaysia through integration of flood risk reduction measures in local plans. Land Use Policy 102:105178
Norris FH, Stevens SP, Pfefferbaum B, Wyche KF, and Pfefferbaum RL (2008) Community resilience as a metaphor, theory, set of capacities, and strategy for disaster readiness. American Journal of Community Psychology 41(1–2):127–150
Pahl-Wostl C (2007) Transitions towards adaptive management of water facing climate and global change. Water Resources Management 21(1):49–62
Pahl Wostl C (2002) Towards sustainability in the water sector-The importance of human actors and processes of social learning. Aquatic Sciences 64(4):394–411
Patel Center (2011) Flexible design of urban water management systems.
Pham BT, Luu C, Dao D Van, Phong T Van, Nguyen HD, Le H Van, von Meding J, and Prakash I (2021) Flood risk assessment using deep learning integrated with multi-criteria decision analysis. Knowledge-Based Systems 219:106899
Pielke RA (1998) Rethinking the role of adaptation in climate policy. Global Environmental Change 8(2):159–170
Pradhanang SM and Jahan K (2021) Urban water security for sustainable cities in the context of climate change. Water, Climate Change, and Sustainability, Wiley 213–224
Prutsch A, Grothmann T, Schauser I, Otto S, McCallum S, and others (2010) Guiding principles for adaptation to climate change in Europe. ETC/ACC technical paper 6:32
Pundt H, Scheinert M, and Heilmann A (2021) Perspectives of climate change adaptation in organizations-A University’Example. Universities, Sustainability and Society: Supporting the Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. Springer Nature 323
Reed PM and Kasprzyk J (2009) Water resources management: The myth, the wicked, and the future. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 135(6):411–413
Refsgaard JC, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, Drews M, Halsnæs K, Jeppesen E, Madsen H, Markandya A, Olesen JE, Porter JR, and Christensen JH (2013) The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies-A Danish water management example. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18(3):337–359
Reynolds JE, Halldin S, Seibert J, Xu CY, and Grabs T (2020) Robustness of flood-model calibration using single and multiple events. Hydrological Sciences Journal 65(5):842–853
Ross AM and Rhodes DH (2015) Towards a prescriptive semantic basis for change-type ilities. Procedia Computer Science 44:443–453
Ruhl JB (2010) General design principles for resilience and adaptive capacity in legal systems-with applications to climate change adaptation. NCL Rev, HeinOnline 89:1373
Saleh JH, Hastings DE and Newman DJ (2003) Flexibility in system design and implications for aerospace systems. Acta Astronautica 53(12):927–944
Sen MK, Dutta S, and Kabir G (2021) Flood resilience of housing infrastructure modeling and quantification using a bayesian belief network. Sustainability 13(3):1026
Sivakumar B (2011) Water crisis: From conflict to cooperation-an overview. Hydrological Sciences Journal 56(4):531–552
Smit B, Burton I, Klein RJT, and Wandel J (2000) An anatomy of adaptation to climate change and variability. Societal Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change 223–251
Smit B and Pilifosova O (2001) Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC Working Group II,. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press, ed. JJ McCarthy, pp. 877–912
Smit B and Wandel J (2006) Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change 16(3):282–292
Smith SJ, Wigley TML, Nakićenović N, and Raper SCB (2000) Climate implications of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65(2):195–204
Spiller M, Vreeburg JHG, Leusbrock I, and Zeeman G (2015) Flexible design in water and wastewater engineering-Definitions literature and decision guide. Journal of Environmental Management 149:271–281
Suttinon P and Nasu S (2010) Real options for increasing value in industrial water infrastructure. Water Resources Management 24(12):2881–2892
Taguchi G, Chowdhury S, and Taguchi S (2000) Robust Engineering. McGraw-Hill Ryerson
Thissen WAH and Walker WE (2013) Public policy analysis. Boston, MA: Springer US
Timmerman JG, Pahl-Wostl C, and Möltgen J (2008) The adaptiveness of IWRM: Analysing European IWRM Research. IWA Publishing
Tsui K-L (1992) An overview of Taguchi method and newly developed statistical methods for robust design. IIE Transactions 24(5):44–57
Ullah F, Ali Shah SA, Saqib SE, Yaseen M, and Haider MS (2021) Households’ flood vulnerability and adaptation: Empirical evidence from mountainous regions of Pakistan. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 52:101967
Ullman DG (2001) Robust decision-making for engineering design. Journal of Engineering Design, Taylor & Francis 12(1):3–13
Van Der Brugge R, Rotmans J, and Loorbach D (2005) The transition in Dutch water management. Regional Environmental Change 5(4):164–176
Van Riel W, Langeveld J, Herder P, and Clemens F (2015) Information use in Dutch sewer asset management. Proceedings of the 7th world congress on Engineering Asset Management (WCEAM 2012), 615–624
Wagener T, Sivapalan M, Troch PA, McGlynn BL, Harman CJ, Gupta H V, Kumar P, Rao PSC, Basu NB, and Wilson JS (2010) The future of hydrology: An evolving science for a changing world. Water Resources Research 46(5):1–10
Walker B, Carpenter S, Anderies J, Abel N, Cumming G, Janssen M, Lebel L, Norberg J, Peterson GD, and Pritchard R (2002) Resilience management in social-ecological systems: A working hypothesis for a participatory approach. Ecology and Society 6(1):14
Walker B, Holling CS, Carpenter SR, and Kinzig AP (2004) Resilience, adaptability and transformability in social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society 9(2):art5
Walker WE, Haasnoot M, and Kwakkel J (2013a) Adapt or perish: A review of planning approaches for adaptation under deep uncertainty. Sustainability 5(3):955–979
Walker WE, Lempert RJ, and Kwakkel JH (2013b) Deep uncertainty. Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, Boston, MA: Springer US, 395–402
Walker WE, Marchau VAWJ, and Swanson D (2010) Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies: Introduction to section 2. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(6):917–923
Winterhalder B (1980) Environmental analysis in human evolution and adaptation research. Human Ecology 8(2):135–170
Wong MK (2013) Flexible design: An innovative approach for planning water infrastructure systems under Uncertainty. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Young OR, Berkhout F, Gallopin GC, Janssen MA, Ostrom E, and van der Leeuw S (2006) The globalization of socio-ecological systems: An agenda for scientific research. Global Environmental Change 16(3):304–316
Zhang N and Alipour A (2020) Multi-scale robustness model for highway networks under flood events. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 83:102281