مواجهه با عدم‌قطعیت در مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی

نوع مقاله : مقاله مروری

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار مهندسی سیستم و خدمات، دانشگاه صنعتی دلفت، دلفت، هلند.

چکیده

مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی در محیطی پویا و دارای عدم‌قطعیت بالا به امری چالش‌برانگیز تبدیل شده است. عدم‌قطعیت‌های متعدد این سیستم‌ها، سیاست‌گذاری، مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی صحیح آن‌ها را به امری دشوار تبدیل کرده است. رویکردهای فنی به تنهایی توانایی لحاظ کردن عدم‌قطعیت‌های عمیق در مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی را دارا نیستند. عدم‌قطعیت عمیق، به سادگی قابل مرتفع کردن نیست؛ زیرا مربوط به سطوح بالای حکمرانی و سیاست‌گذاری است و به عبارت دیگر افراد مسئول، اجماع نظری کمی بر روی مؤلفه‌های مختلف سیستم دارند. بر این اساس در مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی ضروری است رویکردی اتخاذ شود که توانایی درنظر گرفتن عدم‌قطعیت‌های مختلف را داشته باشد. هدف از این مقاله، تبیین و تحلیل چهار رویکرد‌ تاب‌آوری، استواری، انعطاف‌پذیری و سازگاری در مواجهه و مدیریت عدم‌قطعیت‌های عمیق و بررسی کاربرد آن‌ها در سیستم‌های درهم‌تنیده آبی است. دراین مقاله با استفاده از روش توصیفی- تطبیقی و با جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از منابع کتابخانه‌ای به گردآوری ویژگی‌های رویکردهای مذکور و مقایسه آن‌ها با یکدیگر پرداخته شده است. نتایج حاکی از آن بود که رویکرد سازگاری در مقایسه با سایر رویکرد‌ها، توانایی مناسب‌تری برای استفاده در حکمرانی و مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی با هدف تطبیق یافتن خودجوش با تغییرات و همچنین توانایی حفظ مسیر اصلی سیستم را دارا است. همچنین، باید به این نکته توجه داشت که نتایج کسب شده به معنای این نیست که سایر رویکردها در مدیریت سیستم‌های آبی کارآیی ندارند. سایر رویکردها نیز با توجه به ویژگی‌های ذاتی آن‌ها می‌توانند در مدیریت بخش‌های مختلف سیستم‌های آبی بکار گرفته شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Dealing with Uncertainty in Water Systems Management

نویسندگان [English]

  • Behavar Deylami 1
  • Hojjat Mianabadi 2
  • Amineh Ghorbani 3
1 M.Sc. Graduate, Department of Water Resources Engineering, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering and Management, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
چکیده [English]

Managing water systems in a dynamic and highly uncertain environment has become a challenge. Multiple uncertainties have made the management of these systems a relatively difficult task. Technical approaches on their own, do not have the ability to address deep uncertainties in the management of water systems. Deep uncertainty cannot be easily remedied because it is related to high levels of governance and policy-making. In other words, decision makers have little theoretical consensus on the various components of the system. This reveals the necessity of adopting approaches which are capable of taking various types of uncertainties. The purpose of this paper is to explain and analyze the four approaches of resilience, robustness, flexibility, and adaptation in dealing with and managing deep uncertainties and to investigate their application in coupled human-natural water systems. In this article, using the descriptive-comparative method and literature review, the characteristics of the mentioned approaches have been collected and compared with each other. Finally, it was concluded that the adaptation approach, compared to other approaches, has a better ability to be used in water systems governance and management. This does not mean that other approaches are not effective in the management of such systems and, due to their inherent attributes, they can be used in the management of various parts of water systems.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Uncertainty
  • Resilience
  • robustness
  • flexibility
  • adaptation
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